Episode summary
US Retail Sales Show Resilient Consumer Spending
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 7 min · Guests: Michelle Meyer
Summary
Consumers are still spending, but they are doing it with more discipline and a sharper eye for value. Michelle Meyer said shoppers are willing to pay up for items that matter to them, especially necessities, but are also hunting for promotions and using information to compare prices before buying. She framed the current consumer as “savvy,” with spending holding up even as households remain careful about what they buy.
Meyer pointed to the holiday season as evidence that demand is still firm. She said Black Friday saw auto sales up 4.1% year over year and e-commerce spending nearly 10% higher, while the broader season has been tracking at about 4% year over year since November 1. That pattern suggests the consumer is still active, but increasingly selective and deal-driven.
Looking ahead to 2026, Meyer expects a better backdrop for growth, citing fiscal stimulus, continued investment, easier financial conditions and Fed easing. She forecast 3.1% global GDP growth and about 2.2% real GDP growth in the U.S. next year. She also argued that e-commerce is changing retail by giving consumers more choice, improving price discovery and encouraging small business creation.
Key takeaways
- Michelle Meyer said consumers are still outspending, but they are being careful, value-seeking and selective about what they buy.
- Meyer said Black Friday retail sales were up 4.1% year over year, with e-commerce spending nearly 10% higher that day.
- Meyer said the full holiday season is tracking at about 4% year over year from November 1 through early December.
- Meyer expects 3.1% global GDP growth and about 2.2% real GDP growth in the U.S. in 2026.
- Meyer argued that e-commerce is increasing price discovery and helping create more small businesses.
Notable quotes
“Now we call it savvy consumers, where consumers are very much outspending, but they're being really careful about what they buy”
“They're still looking for value. Particularly it comes to more of the necessities and they're looking for the things that really matter for them in there”
“So if you focus specifically on Black Friday, which is probably still peak promotion, we saw retail sales, autos up 4.1% on the year”
“we're forecasting 3.1% global GDP growth. We're on track around 3.2% this year”
“Consumers can utilize technology like age and optimize their purchases to make sure they're getting the right product, the right time for the right price”
How the episode opens
Now we call it savvy consumers, where consumers are very much outspending, but they're being really careful about what they buy. They're still looking for value. Particularly it comes to more of the necessities and they're looking for the things that really matter for them in there.
They'll be more willing to accept higher pricing and kind of splurge a bit. So it really will depend on what the item is that they're buying and therefore how much they're willing to accommodate some of the potential price pressures. How how promotional are retailers this season?
What and is it working with consumers? Yeah, there's of course, still a promotional period we saw during the Black Friday, I would call it Black during Black Friday, but even the day is around Black Friday. So if you focus specifically on Black Friday, which is probably still peak promotion, we saw retail sales, autos up 4.1% on the year with this particularly strong spend, nearly 10% in terms of e-commerce spending on that day.
So there was a concentration and there still was this acceleration into Black Friday. And now when we look at the full season, we're still tracking just about 4% year over year. If we start the season on November 1st and we're looking at it through early December.
What's the outlook for 2026? Michele There's presumably some fiscal stimulus coming into the marketplace in 2026, of course. So when we look at global growth, we're forecasting 3.1% global GDP growth.
We're on track around 3.2% this year. So that differential is a bit of a moderation. Particular to the US, we're looking for some acceleration.
So coming in at about 2.2% real GDP growth next year. And there's a few themes that I think are going to be very supportive.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us retail sales
- consumer spending
- holiday shopping
- labor market
- electric vehicle incentives
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MA
- Mastercard
- Oxford Economics
Watch the episode
Watch “US Retail Sales Show Resilient Consumer Spending” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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