Episode summary
Week of Whiplash in Treasuries Is Closing With Traders on Pause | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 36 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Kevin Gordon, Emily Roland, Geoffrey Yu, Ann Miletti
Summary
The conversation centered on a volatile Treasury market and what it means for stocks, the dollar, and asset allocation. Kevin Gordon argued that 6.5% nominal GDP growth is a sign of a more resilient, higher-growth U.S. economy, but also part of a “higher for longer” rate regime that makes it hard for long yields to fall. He said this week’s bond reversal looked like a temporary “band-aid” over deeper concerns about deficits, sticky inflation, and a long-end that is now doing part of the Fed’s job.
Emily Roland said the weaker dollar is the key risk-on support for equities, especially international stocks, and that the market’s broadening beyond the Magnificent 7 is healthy. She and the host framed the current rotation as one of the best diversification periods in years, with industrials, utilities, healthcare, and even high-quality bonds offering alternatives to the crowded AI trade.
Geoffrey Yu focused on foreign ownership of U.S. duration, especially Japanese and Asian demand, and said 5.25% on the 30-year is not automatically a crisis if breakevens stay anchored. Ann Miletti added that midcap industrials, emerging markets, and free-cash-flow discipline matter more as AI spending accelerates and investors look for earnings growth outside mega-cap technology.
Key takeaways
- Kevin Gordon said 6.5% nominal GDP growth helps explain why Treasury yields are staying elevated in a structurally stronger economy.
- Emily Roland argued that a weaker U.S. dollar is a risk-on catalyst and supports international equities more than U.S. stocks.
- Geoffrey Yu said foreign investors, especially from Japan and Asia, remain important buyers of the long end if inflation expectations stay anchored.
- Ann Miletti said the market rotation into industrials, utilities, healthcare, and emerging markets is broadening opportunity beyond the Magnificent 7.
- Emily Roland and the host both said high-quality bonds still offer value, with 5% to 6% yields looking attractive in a hated asset class.
Notable quotes
“I think it is the most important because it's very much at the center of the discussion around what's going on in the Treasury market this week”
“we have sort of entered this new normal where it's now more normal to see nominal growth of that kind”
“I think that's probably the right way to think about it”
“as long as the US dollar is weaker which it was significantly weaker”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m.
Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Kevin Gordon who's been on board this bull market joins us now had a macro research strategy at Schwab Center for Financial Research.
They have Isabelle they have in their offices actual like vinyl record he cues up the Led Zeppelin to have a field trip in Saunders. I love Barry down here after talking to Michael Darta yesterday. You say the most important data point is 6 and a half% nominal GDP.
Discuss this boom economy. I think it is the most important because it's very much at the center of the discussion around what's going on in the Treasury market this week. And when you think about the underlying fundamentals of the economy, uh, you know, 6 12% year-over-year growth in nominal GDP is, you know, I think a very sort of very indicative of course of what we're seeing in terms of the AI boom, but I think also in the context of inflation as well.
Um, you know, you can't really get inflation down to 2% uh unless you see sort of the greatest productivity boom ever. So it's not it's not a bad thing. I don't mean that in a bad way.
But I think that to the cont you know to the point of this sort of booming economy and the resilience that we see in the US um we have sort of entered this new normal where it's now more normal to see nominal growth of that kind versus what we saw pre- pandemic which was much slower than than 6 12%.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- treasuries
- whiplash in yields
- traders pause
- macro strategy
- investment outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- SCHW
- MFC
- Schwab Center for Financial Research
- Manulife John Hancock Investments
- BNY
- Allspring Global Investments
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Bloomberg Surveillance
-
Stocks Rise as Inflation Data Ease Fed-Hike Worry | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 12th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Jensen Huang Ousted by Nvidia Board as CEO | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 11th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
AI Stocks Rebound as Fed Hike Bets Return | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance, this episode and its artwork belong to Bloomberg. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
