Episode summary
Mizuho's Jared Holz: Moderna drop reflects high bar, not bad data
CNBC Fast Money
· · 5 min · Guests: Jared Holz
Summary
Jared Holz said Moderna’s post-data drop looked more like a valuation reset than a reaction to bad science. He argued the market had already priced in a lot, with Moderna valued around $100 billion, so even solid cancer-vaccine data could disappoint when expectations are that high. He also said the trade now shifts to whether the therapy works in other tumor types, and that the early signal was not enough to conclude much about renal cell or lung cancer.
Holz framed the cancer-vaccine race as mostly a Moderna-Merck story for now, with BioNTech the only other name really on his radar. He said BioNTech’s data have not looked as strong, and that investors are still waiting for clearer evidence on broader applicability beyond melanoma. He called Moderna a stock that is hard to trade because of the volatility, while saying Merck looks somewhat compelling if someone is bullish on the program.
Beyond the cancer-vaccine trade, Holz said the broader health care rally has been extraordinary and may have run too far. He said pharma names have become more expensive than traditional large-cap tech stocks, and he was not enthusiastic about adding exposure ahead of earnings. On AbbVie, he said the company has solved a lot of its patent-cliff issue, but investors should still watch the revenue mix after 2030 and wait for a pullback before buying.
Key takeaways
- Holz said Moderna’s decline reflected a high bar, not bad data, after the stock had already run into the readout.
- He said the key unanswered question is whether the cancer vaccine works across other tumor types such as renal cell and lung.
- Holz described the near-term competitive field as mostly Moderna-Merck, with BioNTech as the only other name on his radar.
- He said Merck looks somewhat compelling if investors are bullish on the program, while Moderna is too volatile to trade easily.
- Holz said AbbVie has largely addressed its patent-cliff problem, but the market should focus on revenue durability after 2030.
Notable quotes
“I ACTUALLY DON'T THINK THE DATA WERE BAD AT ALL. IT WAS PROBABLY JUST THE BAR THAT WE SORT OF CREATE FOR OURSELVES ON WALL STREET”
“I MEAN, THE ONLY OTHER ONE THAT IS REALLY MY RADAR IS BIONTECH. OTHER THAN THAT, THIS IS A MODERNA MERCK GAME”
“I DON'T REALLY THINK SO. I WAS LOOKING FOR SOME SORT OF SIGNAL. I THINK ALL INVESTORS WERE AS WELL”
“I'M NOT SURE WE LEARNED ANYTHING ABOUT RENAL CELL. I'M NOT SURE WE LEARNED ANYTHING ABOUT LUNG”
“I THINK ABBVIE IS SOLVED. A LOT OF IT'S A LOT OF ITS ISSUES”
How the episode opens
Shares regaining a bit of ground after the official release, closing about 17% lower. The stock still up nearly 600% year to date. Merck held up better, ending the day down less than 2%.
For more on the moves, let's bring in Mizuho health care specialist jared. Jared, great to have you with us. And of course, this is in the context of a health care sector that hit a new high in today's session.
But specifically for Moderna. I mean, it had a massive run into the, you know, the expected the release of the results. And so is it just that it met and was like a.
Yeah.
I think so. I mean, the stock moved for this stock on a any given day are so huge. You know, maybe the bar was high coming into today.
The stock was valued at around 100 billion. And so I actually don't think the data were bad at all. It was probably just the bar that we sort of create for ourselves on wall street was, you know, a little bit too high.
And so shares fell, and now it's just about other tumor types really. But yeah, I think to answer the question simplistically, yes.
Cancer vaccines sort of like futuristic stuff that's seemingly right at our door. We talk about Moderna merck for good reason. Is there any name out there that you're watching that we should be aware of in on that sort of on that front?
I mean, the only other one that is really my radar is biontech. Other than that, this is a Moderna merck game. Some of the biontech data that we've seen has not been as good. I mean, they're trialing in a variety of tumor types as well.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- moderna stock drop
- cancer vaccine data
- biotech outlook
- healthcare sector
- valuation expectations
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MRNA
- Moderna
- Mizuho
Watch the episode
Watch “Mizuho's Jared Holz: Moderna drop reflects high bar, not bad data” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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