Episode summary
The Investment Committee's Nvidia strategy: Kevin Simpson trims, Jim Lebenthal holds
Summary
Nvidia was the focus as the panel weighed a sharp selloff against still-strong fundamentals after Jensen Huang’s resignation as CEO and the market’s reaction to the succession news. One guest argued the stock is entering a tug of war between bulls and bears: bulls point to a strong order book, projected growth, and free cash flow above $300 billion, while bears focus on export controls and the risk that China business gets curtailed. The guest said that even with likely near-term volatility, the long-term case remains intact and new money is still being put into Nvidia.
Another panelist said the board moving quickly to line up ARM CEO Rene Haas could help stabilize the situation, but also warned that there are still major headwinds, including national security concerns and possible limits on where chips ultimately end up. The panel highlighted Nvidia’s reported 70-plus percent margins and roughly 10 times forward earnings as reasons the stock could still appeal on fundamentals.
Kevin Simpson said he sold half of his position based on price action alone, taking about a 20% loss from a $200 entry, even though he still likes the fundamentals. He said the departure of a visionary CEO matters, and that more developments are likely to come before the story settles.
Key takeaways
- The guest expects Nvidia to stay volatile in the next couple of weeks as bulls and bears fight over the stock's outlook.
- The bullish case centers on a strong order book, projected growth, and free cash flow above $300 billion, according to the guest.
- The bearish case remains export controls and a likely curtailment of China business, which the guest said is probably right.
- A panelist said Nvidia trading at about 10 times forward earnings with 70-plus percent margins looks attractive on fundamentals.
- Kevin Simpson said he sold half his Nvidia position on price action alone and took roughly a 20% loss from his entry price.
Notable quotes
“I THINK WHAT WE'RE GOING TO SEE FROM NVIDIA THE STOCK FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE IS THIS TUG OF WAR BETWEEN THE BULLS AND THE BEARS”
“I HONESTLY THINK THE BULLS WIN OUT IN THE LONG RUN. BUT BUT FOR THE NEXT WEEK, TWO WEEKS IT'S GOING TO BE BACK AND FORTH”
“I THINK THE BOARD HAS TO MOVE QUICKLY. THIS IS NOT SOMETHING YOU WANT TO LINGER IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM”
“IF YOU REMOVE THE NAME AND LOOKED AT A STOCK LIKE THAT, YOU'RE LIKE, HEY, THIS IS SOMETHING I WANT TO LEAN INTO”
“YESTERDAY WE SOLD FRANK HALF OF OUR POSITION ON PURE PRICE ACTION ALONE. AND IT'S HEARTBREAKING FROM THE STANDPOINT OF LOOKING AT THE PORTFOLIO”
Topics
- nvidia strategy
- stock trading
- earnings outlook
- export controls
- china revenue exposure
Companies and tickers mentioned
- NVDA
- Nvidia
- Capital Wealth Planning
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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