Episode summary
ETF 35% down | अब क्या करे । ETF investing guide
ETF Pulse
· · 15 min
Summary
The host focuses on the FMCG ETF, which he says is down about 35% from its peak and has been in a persistent monthly downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. He contrasts that with broader market behavior, arguing that sectors and Nifty have still offered repeated rebound opportunities, while FMCG has not. The main concern is that this decline is unusually deep for a defensive sector.
He compares the current drawdown with past FMCG corrections, saying the sector fell about 20% in the 2023 Russia-Ukraine period, 30% in Covid, 22% in 2015-16, and 35% in 2008. He argues that the present decline is serious because it matches the 2008 level and is deeper than the Covid crash, with only the 2000-2003 dot-com decline looking worse.
On strategy, the host says support may already be nearby, but no one can guarantee a bounce. His advice is not to keep averaging endlessly into a weak sector; after two or three lots, he says investors should stop fighting the market, accept the loss, and consider shifting toward multi-sector ETFs instead of concentrating in one struggling theme.
Key takeaways
- The host says the FMCG ETF is roughly 35% below its top and still in a monthly downtrend.
- He argues the current FMCG drawdown is unusually severe for a defensive sector, comparable to 2008 and worse than Covid.
- The host advises investors not to keep averaging down beyond two or three lots in a weak sector ETF.
- He says support may be near, but no bounce is guaranteed, so investors should not assume a reversal.
- He recommends moving stuck capital toward multi-sector ETFs rather than adding more to a single failing sector.
Notable quotes
“I am receiving a lot of comments on my channel regarding the FMCG ETF, saying that it has fallen 35%”
“If you look at its chart, before that, around 2000, there was a correction that lasted quite long, until 2003-04”
“we are currently seeing a decline that is even greater than the Covid crash”
“Now, if this support breaks, then we will have to wait for this support”
“if you are investing in a sector, after you have invested, if you have averaged two or three lots, you shouldn't go beyond that”
How the episode opens
Friends, welcome to this new video. In this video, we will specifically talk about an ETF that has fallen significantly and has been down for a long time. It is not like that.
Look at the sectors, the entire market has fallen. Many sectors have fallen. There has been a rebound in all of them too.
For example, if you look at Nifty, returns haven't been very special for the last 2 years. But still, what is Nifty doing? It is moving sideways here .
Right? You will be able to see these things. 1 minute, where did it go?
Uh, there is a slight issue with the mobile recording. So anyway, now if you pay attention here, Nifty is moving in a range. I am just telling you that you get opportunities repeatedly here.
Like you bought it after seeing a dip. You got a return. You bought again after seeing another dip.
You got some returns again. Okay? These are just monthly support and resistance levels.
So, we are talking on that basis here. On this basis, if you look, most of the sectors have rebounded in the same way and generated returns in between. Meaning, many people who do lot-wise swing trading by putting some money into different sectors have had their money rotated.
It has rotated at least a little bit. There weren't too many chances. But at least there have been two chances in a year.
You must have noticed these things. So, let me check once if the recording is working. Yes, it is working.
So, let's come back to that ETF which has fallen so much. Let's see what people are saying about it right now. Look, this ETF won't move just because you or I say so.
If you are worried that the ETF has fallen so much.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- etf investing
- market downturn
- support and resistance
- nifty index
- sector rotation
Watch the episode
Watch “ETF 35% down | अब क्या करे । ETF investing guide” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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