Episode summary
Rupert Mitchell Called It the Worst Chart Imaginable — Then He Bought It: Inside His Anti-Nasdaq Bet
Excess Returns
· · 55 min · Hosts: Matt Zeigler · Guests: Rupert Mitchell
Summary
Rupert Mitchell argued that the S&P 500 versus the rest of the world remains his “chart of truth,” but the more important shift now is inside the U.S. market structure. He said surging AI capital spending, mega-cap share issuance, and the fading of buybacks are reversing a 10-to-15-year de-equitization tailwind, which is why he likes equal-weight S&P 500 over the Nasdaq 100. In his Bushy portfolio, that shows up as long RSP and short QQQ, alongside international equities, gold, commodities, and hedges.
He also made a strong case that positive stock-bond correlation weakens the old 60/40 diversification argument, leaving him skeptical of long-duration bonds and more interested in assets that can preserve purchasing power. On energy, Mitchell said China has become a price-setting force in oil, creating a “collar” that limits downside for crude and supports producers, refiners, midstream, offshore services, and Canadian E&Ps.
Beyond the U.S., he highlighted cheap markets with stressed but durable businesses: UK small and mid caps, Uzbekistan’s privatization story, and Turkish equities. His broader message was that expensive, crowded risk assets could still get much cheaper if the Fed surprises hawkishly, while already-cheap assets may offer better risk-reward over the next 6 to 24 months.
Key takeaways
- Mitchell is long RSP and short QQQ because he thinks AI capex and new share issuance are broadening market leadership away from mega-cap tech.
- He said gold deserves a non-traditional-sized allocation because bonds no longer provide the same diversification benefit in a positively correlated stock-bond regime.
- Mitchell thinks China is effectively setting a floor and ceiling for oil prices, which makes energy equities more investable even if crude does not stay above triple digits.
- He sees UK small and mid caps as unusually cheap, with support from buybacks, takeovers, pension capital, and domestic business formation.
- Mitchell said Uzbekistan’s privatization fund and Turkish equities are examples of stressed markets where surviving companies are still priced far too cheaply.
Notable quotes
“I think the riskreward setup from here is is pretty interesting”
How the episode opens
You're watching Excess Returns, the channel that makes complex investing ideas simple enough to actually use where better questions lead to better decisions. My guest today, if Mr. Magcoo was a furry, only look up half of that reference, kids. Trust me. Oh, Mitchell, we've done it again. Blind scroll macro zone. Rupert Mitchell. Welcome back to Access Returns.
Hey, Matt. Matt Ziggler rhymes with Digler. Now I know I'll never make the mistake again. I'm taking that. Not just because I was taunted in kindergarten because it rhymes with Jello Jiggler, which I think is part of what you're referencing.
Not D. Not D. — But I'm taking Dirk Diggler on Boogie Nights. If I was born maybe a decade or two later, I might have had that benefit. — I don't see any roller skating porn stars behind you. But we're in good shape.
It's the the day is young. It's only 4:00 in my evening so far. So never never say never.
We're we're going straight into this. I want to talk about the Chart of Truth. You bring it on every single time.
It's the S&P versus the rest of the world. Only one can rule them all. It's better than a World Cup final.
At least I hope. Tell me, give me the update. What's the deal with our chart of truth?
Do
You know when were we last on? I think it was November. And it's done almost nothing since November. I think — You know what's crazy is I feel like Yeah. We were we were close to the 200E moving average. It was just Yeah. And now we're dead. We're just dead. We had we had a drip a big trip below at the beginning of the year and then we're back we're back to flat.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai capex
- mega-cap issuance
- equal-weight vs nasdaq short
- fed hike risk
- emerging market value plays
Companies and tickers mentioned
- BEN
- Blind Squirrel Macro
- Franklin Templeton
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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