Episode summary
What Will Drive Financial Markets in 2026—and How to Make It Your Best Year
Money For The Rest Of Us
· · 37 min · Hosts: David
Summary
The host frames the turn of the year around intentions rather than resolutions, arguing that people are poor forecasters of their own future behavior and do better with simple, low-friction commitments. He says his own 2026 intentions are to seek depth over volume, move more without tracking every step, and wait for emergence rather than forcing outcomes. He also points to several cognitive biases—overconfidence, hindsight bias, and the conjunction fallacy—as recurring traps for both personal planning and investing.
On markets, the host describes researching a private real estate fund that converted into a closed-end fund and traded at a steep discount, only to pass on it after finding weak cash generation, a heavy exposure to life sciences property, and return of capital supporting the dividend. He also challenges the narrative of a broad affordability crisis, citing evidence that real wages have risen since 2015 even as housing remains pressured by higher interest rates. His base case for 2026 is continued economic and market strength, supported by earnings growth, falling rates in some areas, and AI investment, but with geopolitical risks still able to upset the outlook.
The biggest macro question, in his view, is whether AI becomes a genuine productivity engine in 2026. He contrasts the view that large language models mainly remix existing culture with the view that AI still needs a major course correction before it can drive real innovation. The episode closes with a reminder that forecasts will be wrong sometimes, and that the right posture is humility, flexibility, and continued homework.
Key takeaways
- The host says intentions should replace resolutions because overconfidence and present bias make rigid annual goals unreliable.
- He argues that approach-oriented, easy-to-start habits are more durable than vague promises to change behavior.
- The host passed on a private real estate fund after seeing a 40% discount to NAV, weak cash generation, and heavy life-science exposure.
- He says the affordability crisis is partly a perception problem because real wages have risen since 2015 even though housing costs remain strained by higher mortgage rates.
- The host sees 2026 as a critical test for AI: whether it produces measurable productivity gains and supports continued earnings growth.
Notable quotes
“We are awful forecasters of our own future behavior”
“I don't make them. I have intentions”
“The idea that when we make a resolution such as to go to the gym and I'm going to get up every single morning”
“Wait to see how things evolve. And when there's time to take action, then I will”
“2026 will be a critical year to see whether all this investment in AI leads to higher productivity, boosting economic growth”
How the episode opens
Welcome to Money for the Rest of Us. This is a personal finance show on money, how it works, how to invest it, and how to live without worrying about it. I'm your host, David Stein.
Today is episode 548. It's titled What I Did Over the Break and What to Expect in 2026. For the past 25 years or so, I've basically not worked during the last few weeks of the year.
I did it as a new institutional investment adviser as I was able to acrew more vacation. I certainly have done it with money for the rest of us as we've not published episodes typically over the holidays. Last year our family and I was were in Costa Rica over the year break.
This year we were in Tucson. What I wanted to do in this episode is to kind of share what I did during the break. What did I learn?
What are my routines at year end in terms of preparing for the upcoming year? I generally don't have a schedule when it comes to what I do at year end. There's certain things that I have done over the years that that help me plan, help me reflect on what happened in the prior year.
There's a saying from French philosopher Gustav Tibau, measure repeats, rhythm renews. Natural cycles always allow for the unforeseeable. I like that idea of rhythm.
I have year-end rhythms that I follow, but I'm flexible. I allow room for the unforeseeable. And there's certainly things that came up and that flexibility allows us to address those things.
A big part of what I do at year end is tends to be a lot more physical activity. the sort of those year-end things that just need to get done. When we've lived in Tucson, we live on about an acre and it's desert fauna.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- financial markets outlook 2026
- behavioral biases
- private real estate funds
- affordability crisis
- ai in 2026
Watch the episode
Watch “What Will Drive Financial Markets in 2026—and How to Make It Your Best Year” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Money For The Rest Of Us
-
10X Your Productivity While Doing Your Best Work -
Stock Pickers Keep Losing, Who's Winning? -
Stocks Are Cheaper Than You Think - It All Depends On What You Measure -
What If You Only Invested at Stock Market Peaks? Or Invested at Stock Market Bottoms? -
Can You Really Earn 68% per Year Selling Puts? How Option Income Strategies Work -
The Financial System Will Be Hacked and What To Do About It
Money For The Rest Of Us, this episode and its artwork belong to J. David Stein. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
