Episode summary
The Scramble Is On for Businesses to Get Their Tariff Refund Checks | Odd Lots
Odd Lots
· · 45 min · Hosts: Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway · Guests: Ryan Petersen
Summary
The episode focuses on the Supreme Court’s ruling that struck down the bulk of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and the scramble among importers to claim refunds. Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, argues that refunds are highly likely and could arrive this year, though the exact process will run through the Court of International Trade and the customs system rather than automatically. He says the key operational step is for companies to pull their customs records, calculate what they are owed, and likely file protests to recover it.
Petersen also describes a fast-developing secondary market in tariff refund claims, where some firms and banks are buying claims at steep discounts, with prices moving from about 25 cents on the dollar to 52 cents after the ruling. He says that reflects uncertainty about timing and legal process, not whether money is owed.
Beyond refunds, the conversation covers how trade patterns have changed since the tariffs began: more manufacturing moving to Southeast Asia and Latin America, more foreign companies acting as importers of record, and more creative attempts to reclassify or reroute goods. Petersen says some of the most important shifts are now embedded in supply chains, especially in air freight and Chinese-backed production networks outside China.
Key takeaways
- Ryan Petersen says he is highly confident refunds will happen and expects companies to start seeing them this year.
- The refund process will likely require companies to pull ACE customs records and file protests through the Court of International Trade.
- Claims on tariff refunds are already trading in a secondary market, with Petersen citing prices rising from 25 cents to 52 cents on the dollar.
- Petersen says many foreign companies became importers of record after the tariffs, and roughly 20% of refund-eligible companies may now be foreign.
- The tariffs pushed some manufacturing toward Southeast Asia and Latin America, but Petersen says Chinese firms are often still behind the new factories.
Notable quotes
“I believe I have a very high degree of certainty like bordering on certainty, conviction bordering on certainty that there will be refunds”
“the Court of International Trade has only 30 days from February 20th was when the Supreme Court came out and they have 30 days to to make a ruling of what happens next”
“So, the importer of record that supposedly is going to get this refund”
“we've seen a huge explosion of that. And all those people are not those US companies, by the way, they don't import anything”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts, radio, news. — Hello and welcome to another episode of the OddLotss podcast. I'm Jill Weisenthal — And I'm Tracy Aloway. — Do you think you and I are going to start getting checks because they struck down the tariffs? Right. And according to economists, consumers pay the tariff. So if consumers pay the tariffs and they strike down the refund, shouldn't we get the money?
I have often said, Joe, I buy a lot of stuff. Yeah. Especially from abroad, a lot of weird stuff.
Sometimes I feel like I'm running a small logistics company. And I will say, so I know it's the importer of record who actually pays the tariffs and is supposedly supposed to get the refund. However, I've had a few instances where like the postal service will deliver something to my house, especially in Connecticut, and while they're there, we'll say, "You owe us like $50 in cash as a tariff payment.
And I'm literally standing on my door
Really — Paying out cash and it's going somewhere. So, I feel very much like I actually have paid the tariffs pretty much directly to the Trump government. Like, there is something very visceral. — I have some bad news to — I know. I know. The person who did that was a con artist who showed up and they said and they they duped you into thinking that because I have never heard of someone having to pay cash.
You're not buy you're not buying enough from abroad. No, it's definitely true. I got the bill online and then you can either pay online or you can pay the postal guy in cash. It's very strange. — I've never heard of that. Anyway, everyone wants their money back.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- tariff refunds
- importers claims
- refund claim secondary market
- freight forwarding
- trade policy fallout
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Flexport
Watch the episode
Watch “The Scramble Is On for Businesses to Get Their Tariff Refund Checks | Odd Lots” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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