Episode summary
This Is How Big Money Is Trading the War in Iran | Odd Lots
Odd Lots
· · Hosts: Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal · Guests: Ozan Tarman
Summary
Markets are trading the Iran war as a headline-and-positioning event more than a clean fundamental story. Ozan Tarman says the current pain trade is still for equities to rally and oil to drift lower, even though tail risks remain very large. He argues that the market has been forced into a fast liquidation cycle: investors who were long gold, long EM, or positioned for lower rates are taking profits or de-risking, which can create a squeeze higher in risk assets even when the geopolitical news looks worse.
The discussion also focuses on rates and inflation. Ozan Tarman says rate-cut expectations were already shifting before the conflict, but the war has intensified a warflation trade and pushed the market to price more hikes in Europe and the UK. He also warns that Europe and Asia face higher energy costs, rationing risk, and broader growth damage if supply disruptions persist.
A second major theme is private credit. Ozan Tarman says redemption headlines and withdrawal limits are making investors question whether the asset class is truly contained, and he sees possible spillovers into public credit and equities if liquidity pressure spreads. The hosts leave with the view that this is a market where staying light and respecting position risk matters more than being aggressively right.
Key takeaways
- Ozan Tarman says the near-term pain trade is still for equities to squeeze higher and oil to fall, despite the war headlines.
- He says gold, emerging markets, and rate-cut trades were crowded winners, so forced selling is amplifying volatility.
- Tarman argues the market is starting to price more hikes in the Bank of England and ECB, not fewer cuts.
- He says Europe and parts of Asia face higher energy costs and possible rationing if the conflict keeps disrupting supply.
- On private credit, Tarman says it may not be 2008, but withdrawal stress could still tighten financial conditions if it spreads.
Notable quotes
“the pain trade the momentum trade is for this equity rally and oil fall to continue”
“my gut feel from what I sense from the clients is there is room for a squeeze here in equities sire oil over lower”
“people were all into these bare flatten steepeners first then they believed in bull flatteners”
“what does Iran do what does Iran say as we speak because of fars like you said Israel 12 said these talks are happening farce Iran said no we're still waiting”
“If people cannot take their money away from private credit and have to sell something liquid, then watch out for public credit”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts, radio, news. — Hello and welcome to another episode of the OddLots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal. — And I'm Tracy Aloway. — Tracy, we're recording this March 25th, 2026. It's 9:10 a.m. And the — Are you going to do the seconds as well?
No, but the reason I do mention the time, the cash trading and the stock market hasn't opened. The reason I mentioned the time is not just because things are moving fast, but to establish we've had market moving headlines already this morning. Oh, absolutely.
So just in the last like 15 20 minutes we got some headlines attributed to the FARS news agency out of Iran saying there is no interest in talks there's no interest in ceasefire the US position about pursuing a ceasefire is illogical that moved futures down a little bit we're you know it's a cliche you know headline driven market you hear that a lot the last several weeks have felt like the headline driven market to drive all headline driven market
No it really I know it's a cliche but it really is a headline driven market and I think part of the issue here is because no one's entirely sure what the goals are when it comes to Iran, it's really hard to judge progress of the conflict on any sort of fundamental basis, right? So all you can look at is basically what Trump and the other two sides are saying and so you get these big reactions every time they tweet something or post on truth social and then tend to contradict each other.
Absolutely. And you know I do think look there is this extreme level of skepticism from almost any headline you get out of the US white house.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- iran war markets
- rates repositioning
- oil prices
- equity squeeze
- private credit left-tail risk
Companies and tickers mentioned
- DB
- Deutsche Bank
Watch the episode
Watch “This Is How Big Money Is Trading the War in Iran | Odd Lots” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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