Episode summary
War in Iran Is Already Reshaping East Asia's Energy Future | Odd Lots
Odd Lots
· · Hosts: Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal · Guests: Alex Turnbull
Summary
The conversation focused on how the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz disruption are already pressuring Asian energy markets more than the West. Alex Turnbull argued that Asia is far more exposed because it relies heavily on Middle Eastern crude and LNG, while countries like the Philippines and Vietnam are already seeing tighter supply, refinery stress, and demand destruction. He said some spot prices are real and that refiners without storage or credit lines are being forced to keep operating at extreme margins or shut down.
Turnbull also argued that the shock is changing the medium-term energy mix. He said Japan and Korea are accelerating nuclear restarts, China is pushing to cut LNG burn, and EV adoption is picking up sharply, with BYD inventory days on dealer lots falling from 25-plus days to single digits. He believes solar plus batteries can quickly reduce gas dependence in places like Australia, where storage is already flattening price spikes.
On gas and LNG, Turnbull questioned the “US LNG forever” story, saying high turbine costs, geopolitical risk, and the appeal of more boring energy systems could weaken long-term demand. He suggested the crisis may push Asian countries to prioritize energy security over open-ended fossil fuel dependence.
Key takeaways
- Alex Turnbull said Asia is bearing the sharpest pain because it is structurally dependent on Middle Eastern crude and LNG, unlike the United States.
- He said Philippines and Vietnam are already under stress, with refineries living hand-to-mouth and demand destruction starting by income level.
- Turnbull said Japan and Korea are accelerating nuclear restarts, with public support and political backing making the shift easier.
- He said BYD inventory at dealers has fallen from 25-plus days to single digits, which suggests a much stronger EV pull in Asia.
- He argued that solar-plus-storage is already dampening Australian power-price spikes and reducing gas burn.
- He questioned the durability of the US LNG growth story, saying higher turbine costs and geopolitical risk could push buyers toward less volatile options.
Notable quotes
“Asia is very heavily exposed right now and more acutely thinking about what the impacts might be how they might want to prefer than the United States of course”
“there's definitely been a notable pickup in certain areas where there was already a bit of momentum”
“If you do calls to auto dealers around Asia and ask them how much time electric vehicles stay on the lot, it's down to single days”
“I think coal is going to have a bit of a comeback for that reason alone”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts, radio, news. — Hello and welcome to another episode of the OddLots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.
And I'm Tracy Aloway. Uh Tracy, it's April 9th, uh 9:05 a.m. There's a ceasefireish.
It's sort of there's been something announced that's called a ceasefire. There does not seems to actually have been much of a cessation of fire, per se. Maybe it's slowed down a little bit.
Some of the headlines this morning are about Israel continuing to strike hard in Lebanon, Iran saying that well, if there's no ceasefire in Lebanon, there's no ceasefire at all. But, you know, overall, at least as of right now, you know, the market, etc. We saw that huge drop in oil Tuesday night.
You know, the market's still sort of still sort of buoyant, right? Still sort of resilient. Well, I think the important thing for the purposes of this particular discussion is if you take a look at what's going on in the straight of Hormuz,
It still seems to be shut more or less. Um, and shout out to the Bloomberg function, uh, ECAN Hormuz, you can see the number of ships that are going through that particular choke point and I have two as of today, which is basically not two today. There was some there were some headlines about how maybe even in the the good case they would let through 10 to 15 which is still sort of nothing compared to normal ship traffic.
So like nothing's back to normal.
I was going to say to your point I think the thing that's confusing everyone is we keep seeing these headlines about like a billion barrels lost of world supply or 20% of the world's oil supply now choked out because of the hormuz situation.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- iran war commodities prices
- east asia energy supply
- nuclear power restart
- imported natural gas dependence
- electric vehicle demand
Companies and tickers mentioned
- BYDDY
- BYDDF
- BYD
Watch the episode
Watch “War in Iran Is Already Reshaping East Asia's Energy Future | Odd Lots” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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