Episode summary
What Really Happens at a Fed Research Conference | Odd Lots
Odd Lots
· · 42 min · Hosts: Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal · Guests: Susan Collins
Summary
The episode takes listeners inside the Boston Fed’s 69th annual Economic Conference, where researchers and discussants try to turn preliminary papers into policy-relevant arguments about tariffs, geopolitics, industrial policy, AI, inflation, and supply chains. The hosts emphasize that this is where “the first serious drafts of tomorrow’s policy debates are aired,” with papers presented in public, assigned discussants, and often lively critique from the audience.
Two papers frame the core debate. One argues that the United States may be more exposed to global shocks than standard models suggest once trade, production, and finance networks are fully accounted for. Another argues that supply-chain uncertainty can amplify energy shocks and make inflation more persistent, especially when bottlenecks are already present. The discussants push back, questioning whether some effects reflect demand surges rather than true supply shocks and whether the empirical results are robust.
Susan Collins says the conference highlights how understanding complex linkages can change traditional thinking, and that the Boston Fed shares research across the Fed system in different ways. The episode also shows the tension between policy relevance and academic publishing incentives, with the host and guests describing conference research as useful, messy, and sometimes awkwardly public.
Key takeaways
- Shbnam’s paper argues that U.S. exposure to global risk is larger once trade, production and financial networks are modeled together, not just aggregate trade shares.
- Tomaso Monacelli’s paper says supply-chain uncertainty can magnify oil and energy shocks into more persistent inflation pressure.
- The discussants’ role is to translate, critique and contextualize papers, but the episode shows they can also challenge identification and robustness in public.
- Susan Collins says the conference helps the Fed identify larger and more persistent effects that simpler models may miss.
- The episode argues that policy relevance and academic publishing incentives can pull economists in different directions.
Notable quotes
“the profession is built on trust and if you if you lose that trust it's it's it's quite bad”
“we are living through capital age history here we have the tariffs from the Trump administration the reversal of globalization new geopolitical risks AI all of it”
“when you have this type of a comprehensive view of the network global network as trade production and finance then I think US uh becomes uh very vulnerable to global shocks and global risks”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg audio studios podcasts radio news. — Okay. So u thank you all. Uh the next paper uh is going presented by Omar Barbiero. US firms exposure to import tariffs a comparison of the 2018 and 2025 episodes. — Can I ask a personal question?
25 minutes. when you present a paper like this at a research conference like this Boston Fed one — Do you get nervous and then I guess adjacent to that like what what's the best outcome for you when you present the paper and what's the sort of nightmare scenario would it be someone like finding some fundamental error in the methodology and like standing up in the middle of the conference and being like there's a serious problem here
Yeah I mean many many nightmare scenarios Sorry, I was just clicking randomly and then it went. Okay. All right.
I would say the the worst thing that can happen is that you just say something wrong that sounds dishonest almost like you're trying to hide something like there's clearly a data flaw and then you don't highlight it or you don't you say in public, "No, no, no, this is not a problem. And everybody knows that no, it's it's a problem. kind of that that's I think the profession is built on trust and if you if you lose that trust it's it's it's quite bad.
That's Omar Barbierro, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. He's getting ready to stand up in front of a room full of other economists, journalists, academics and his employer and present a research paper tracking the exposure of US businesses to import tariffs. Uh this is a paper uh written jointly with Slavic uh Hillary and Alvaro who are there.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed research conference
- monetary policy
- boston fed
- policy influence
- economic research
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Bloomberg
Watch the episode
Watch “What Really Happens at a Fed Research Conference | Odd Lots” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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