Episode summary
The $1.5B Insider Trade Before Trump’s Iran Post | Prof G Markets
Prof G Markets
· · Hosts: Ed Elson, Scott Galloway · Guests: Anthony Scaramucci, Steve Eisman
Summary
The episode centers on a new insider-trading controversy around Trump’s Iran remarks, where roughly $1.5 billion in S&P futures were bought and $192 million in oil futures were sold just minutes before the announcement, producing about $60 million in profits almost immediately. The guest argues this fits a broader pattern across Trump’s second term, including earlier trading around tariffs, crypto, and other policy shifts, and says the scale of the conduct is far larger than past scandals even if enforcement is weaker now. The host closes the segment by arguing that the corruption has become politically undeniable and could become an election issue.
The discussion also broadens into the institutional failure to police political trading. The guest says the SEC’s enforcement effort has been hamstrung, notes that insider trading in Congress is effectively normalized, and argues that Citizens United and incumbency protection reinforce the problem. He contrasts today’s environment with earlier eras when corruption still carried consequences, saying the lack of deterrence erodes trust and fuels cynicism.
In the second half, Steve Eisman warns that private credit is entering a stress phase. He says private credit was sold too aggressively to retail investors, that many funds are hitting 5% quarterly redemption caps, and that rising non-accruals and downgrades suggest a real credit cycle is beginning. He expects a recession if lending tightens further, but not a 2008-style banking collapse because the U.S. banking system is now much better capitalized.
Key takeaways
- The guest says roughly $1.5 billion in S&P futures and $192 million in oil futures traded minutes before Trump’s Iran post, producing about $60 million in quick profits.
- The guest argues insider trading around Trump’s administration has been repeated across tariffs, crypto, and China-related posts, not just the Iran episode.
- The host says the scandal could become a defining political issue because the scale of the conduct looks “a cut above” ordinary political misconduct.
- Steve Eisman says private credit was overextended into retail channels and is now showing stress as redemption requests exceed quarterly caps.
- Eisman expects a recession if private credit tightens further, but he does not expect a 2008-style banking crisis because bank capital is much stronger now.
Notable quotes
“On Monday morning, roughly $1.5 billion dollars in S&P futures were purchased and $192 million in oil futures were sold”
“this is another example of it but it's been very consistent throughout the administration”
“The news gets bad. People start to worry about losses. Underwriting standards start to tighten”
How the episode opens
Today's number 77. That's how many people are in Ireland's Navy Reserve. One of the smallest in the world.
Here's an Irish joke. What's the difference between an Irish wedding and an Irish funeral? One less drunk.
Welcome to Propy Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is March 26th.
Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices swung through the day but ended the session in the green. Oil declined.
Treasury yields fell. And finally, Meta and Google shares were little changed after the companies were found liable of negligence in the social media addiction trial. Okay, what else is happening?
The Iran war is shining a spotlight on insider trading and Washington may be at the center of it. On Monday morning, roughly $1.5 billion dollars in S&P futures were purchased and $192 million in oil futures were sold. That was 5 minutes before President Trump announced that productive conversations with Thrron were underway.
The position netted $60 million minutes after the Truth Social Post. Senator Chris Murphy called it quote mind-blowing corruption and asked publicly whether Trump, a family member or a White House staffer, was behind the trade. Meanwhile, the FT separately flagged $580 million in crude oil futures that traded 14 minutes before the announcement.
Okay, here to help us untangle what is going on here, we're speaking with Anthony Scaramucci, the founder and managing partner of Skybridge Capital. Anthony, thank you for joining us. Please, I know you have thoughts.
Well, first of all, it's great it's great to be on. So, but I want to add to that if you don't mind. So, April 2nd, 2025, Liberation Day, they put trades on. They got short the market prior to the announcement. You know, when Trump came down from Mount Evil like orange Moses with the big tablets, okay, they got short the market prior to that de divulgement.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- insider trading
- truth social
- iran war
- private credit market
- trump administration scrutiny
Companies and tickers mentioned
- DJT
- SkyBridge Capital
- Trump Media & Technology Group
Watch the episode
Watch “The $1.5B Insider Trade Before Trump’s Iran Post | Prof G Markets” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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