Gavin Baker on Anthropic's S-1, GPU Prices, and SpaceX

Gavin Baker argued that Anthropic’s S-1 was an upside surprise because the business appears more profitable, more cash-generative, and more diversified than critics expected. He said Anthropic has only burned $10 billion, that its reported revenue run rate implies very large scale, and that its customer base is far broader than the market had assumed, with 250 accounts spending more than $10 million and about 11,000 to 12,000 spending more than $100,000.

He also said the broader AI market is still accelerating, with open-weight model providers growing quickly and enterprise adoption still early. On compute, Baker said October has been marked by rising GPU rental prices, tighter spot markets, and a forward curve in contango, meaning clusters promised for 2027 are already getting much more expensive. He argued that this should channel capital toward operators that can actually energize and run GPUs well, and that products like NVIDIA’s DSX pod could reduce working-capital drag.

Baker was bullish on more AI capital formation through public listings, especially for Anthropic and SpaceX, which he thinks would unlock more buying power for mutual funds and retail investors. He also said AI has already delivered meaningful benefits in biology, even if commercialization will take time.