Episode summary
Two Cents 1/31 - Federal Reserve; 2026 Contribution Limits; When should you rebalance your portfolio
The Dentist Money Show
· · Hosts: Matt Mulcock, Taylor, Rabih Powell
Summary
The hosts say the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged because the economy entered 2026 on a firm footing: spending is still strong, unemployment has stabilized around 4.5%, and core PCE ended the year at 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target. They argue the real story is a split economy, with higher-income consumers and business investment still driving growth while weaker real estate and lower-income households feel more pressure. They also note that Q4 GDP now looks closer to 2.9% annualized than the Fed’s earlier softer assumptions, which makes near-term cuts even less likely.
On mortgage rates, the hosts caution against expecting a return to 3% loans anytime soon. They say most forecasts point to only modest declines over the next few years, with 6% to high-5% mortgages more plausible than a dramatic reset. They also discuss the new Fed chair pick and say markets had largely priced him in already, so the bigger question is whether the Fed’s communication style or independence changes.
The episode closes with planning topics that matter directly to dentists: 2026 retirement plan contribution limits, the new Roth-only catch-up rule for workers over 50 with W2 wages above $150,000, and how to rebalance portfolios as retirement nears. Their main advice is to plan early, think tax-efficiently, and avoid making decisions based on interest-rate predictions you cannot control.
Key takeaways
- The hosts say the Fed is likely to stay on hold because growth, spending, and labor-market stability still support the economy.
- They expect only modest mortgage-rate relief, with 3% loans appearing unlikely in the next five years.
- The 2026 401(k) limit rises to $24,500, and the age-50 catch-up rises to $8,000, for a total of $32,500.
- Workers over 50 with W2 wages above $150,000 must make catch-up contributions as Roth, not pre-tax, which can materially change tax planning.
- The hosts say dentists should start rebalancing and withdrawal planning 5 to 7 years before retirement, not in the final year.
Notable quotes
“the top 20% of Americans are spending so much that they are overwhelming the bottom 80%”
“There wasn't a single scenario where we were seeing in the next 5 years 3% interest rates coming back”
“if your W2 wage is over 150,000 you are no longer able to do that catch-up contribution pre-tax or traditional”
“sequence of return risk if you want to Google it”
How the episode opens
On today's show, we're talking Fed meeting and interest rates, 2026 contribution limits, and rebalancing a portfolio. Let's go. — Consult an adviser or conduct your own due diligence when making financial decisions. General principles discussed during this program do not constitute personal advice. This program is furnished by Dennis Adviser, a registered investment adviser. Welcome to Dentist Money's Two Sense, where we help dentists navigate all the noise. I'm Matt.
I'm Taylor. — And I'm Robbie. — Yeah, you are. — Welcome back, you guys. — Feels good. — Yeah. — Taylor and I have been out for a while for different reasons. — Yep. — Yeah. I don't know if I can agree with the feels good part, but you know, it it doesn't feel good to be back. Well, it feels good to be back, but do I feel good myself? No, I do not. I
Tell us why, Taylor. — Well, as you guys know, or I mean, everyone's paying attention to Matt and I's personal lives and our — Everyone's following our life, obviously. — 100%. Um, no, Shelby and I, we welcomed our fourth child um on January 10th to our family.
Uh, but we happened to time it perfectly with both sets of our parents being out of the country. So, the paternity leave that I've had over the last two weeks has been unlike all of my previous paternity leaves where I had help from mothers and mother-in-laws and and family. And it was just on me to take care of the other three kids plus my wife and newborn baby.
And I think my kids were just as ready for me to go back to work as I was.
So, — They're like, "Get this guy out.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- federal reserve meeting
- mortgage rates
- 2026 contribution limits
- portfolio rebalancing
- retirement planning
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from The Dentist Money Show
-
What Should You Do When You're Nervous About the Stock Market? -
Two Cents 11/7 - What's Driving Economic Growth?; Elections Break The Market?; Tax Bracket Changes -
Is a 3-Day Workweek Possible for Dentists? -
Two Cents 10/31 - AI Bubble In China; How Should You Use Your HSA?; 2026 Halloween Spending Trends -
The Biggest Mistakes Dentists Make With Social Security -
Two Cents 10/24 - France & Japan's Economy; Do Stocks Ever Go Down?; Rising Property Taxes
The Dentist Money Show, this episode and its artwork belong to Dentist Advisors - Financial Planning and Investment Management. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
