Episode summary
Global Forecaster: The Brutal 2026 Shift (And The Crisis They Can’t Stop)
The Diary of a CEO
· · 1 hr 40 min · Hosts: Steven Bartlett · Guests: Ian Bremmer
Summary
Ian Bremmer argues that the biggest geopolitical risk in 2026 is the United States itself, because Washington has become the main source of global uncertainty through tariffs, shifting alliances, and a rejection of the rules-based order it once built. He says that instability is now so large that it is reshaping global politics, security, and markets in real time.
He places China second: not as an immediate crisis, but as the power making long-term gains by controlling critical minerals, batteries, electric vehicles, and other supply-chain chokepoints. Bremmer says China is playing a much longer game than the West, while Europe, Canada, Japan, and South Korea have underinvested in defense, technology, and productivity.
On the Middle East, he argues that Trump misread Iran and that the conflict has escalated because Iran remains functional, decentralized, and capable of making tactical decisions even after major strikes. Bremmer says the most likely endgame is a negotiated de-escalation in which Iran compromises on nuclear enrichment while preserving leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, but he warns a more dangerous military escalation remains possible.
Key takeaways
- Bremmer says the United States is now the biggest driver of geopolitical uncertainty, not China, because American policy shifts are rippling through the global economy and security system.
- He argues China is building long-term strategic power through critical minerals, batteries, EVs, and other supply chains that most Western governments neglected.
- Bremmer says Europe’s weakness is structural: slower growth, weaker productivity, insufficient defense spending, and too much faith that the post-Cold War order would last.
- He thinks Trump is unlikely to sustain maximal pressure on Iran because markets, inflation, and midterm politics make a prolonged confrontation costly.
- Bremmer sees the most likely Iran outcome as a ceasefire extension and a compromise on enrichment, with Iran keeping leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.
Notable quotes
“the United States has become the biggest driver of risk, the biggest driver of geopolitical uncertainty in the world”
“China has been working to build the most effective electric vehicles all over the world at scale and the batteries all over the world at scale”
“if the Americans are no longer willing to act as the global leader, but no one else is capable of filling those shoes, you don't have a G7 or a G20”
“the most likely outcome is that the ceasefire is eventually extended”
How the episode opens
These conversations aren't always easy, but nonetheless, they are important. So, every single year, Professor Ian Bremer, who's one of the world's leading political scientists, produces this risk report, and it highlights the top 10 biggest risks that everybody should be thinking about. And today, he's going to talk to me about the three that matter the most.
So, he predicts that a US political revolution is on its way. the US has become the biggest driver of geopolitical uncertainty in the world and in my view Trump will fail.
And he also says that the other thing everybody needs to be talking about and aware of is what's really playing out with AI behind the scenes. — They created a model which is so powerful that they couldn't release it because it would have been an immediate systemic risk to the global economy and our security and artificial intelligence is eating its users. and we can talk about that.
And lastly, I want to end on a point of optimism. Can we take this craziness and turn it into a utopia with realistic solutions? This is super interesting to me.
My team given me this report to show me how many of you that watch this show subscribe. And some of you have told us according to this that you are unsubscribed from the channel randomly. So, favor to ask all of you.
Please could you check right now if you've hit the subscribe button if you are a regular viewer of the show and you like what we do here. We're approaching quite a significant landmark on this show in terms of a subscriber number. So, if there was one simple free thing that you could do to help us, my team, everyone here to keep this show free, to keep it improving year over year and week over week, it is just to hit that subscribe button and to double check if you've hit it.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- 2026 global risks
- ai job threat
- us instability
- china long-term strategy
- middle east iran conflict
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Eurasia Group
- GZERO Media
Watch the episode
Watch “Global Forecaster: The Brutal 2026 Shift (And The Crisis They Can’t Stop)” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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