Episode summary
How Assumptions Shape Financial Planning Outcomes | Rational Reminder 391
The Rational Reminder Podcast
· · 1 hr 25 min · Hosts: Benjamin Felix, Braden Warwick · Guests: Adam Chapman, Joe Nunes, Aaron Theilade
Summary
The episode argues that financial planning is really a question of how assumptions are chosen, stress-tested, and explained, because those assumptions shape both the numbers and the client’s behavior. Aaron Theelade frames assumptions as “the bridge that brings tomorrow into today,” while also stressing that plans are always wrong in some sense and must be directionally and materially useful rather than perfectly predictive. Joe Nunes takes an actuarial approach, starting with inflation and investment return, then tying expected return to the actual risk a client is taking.
Braden, using an engineering mindset, says planners should treat assumptions like design inputs: solve for the expected outcome, but make sure the plan can withstand unexpected outcomes too. Adam Chapman focuses on retirement clients and shows how objections to assumptions often reveal hidden fears, especially around longevity, inflation, and the possibility of not enjoying the money.
Across the discussion, the panel repeatedly returns to the idea that software is a tool, not the plan itself. Good planning requires judgment, behavioral understanding, ongoing updates, and the willingness to ask why a client is uneasy before changing the assumption.
Key takeaways
- Aaron Theelade says assumptions should be credible, stress-tested, and material enough to guide decisions, not perfectly forecast the future.
- Joe Nunes argues that inflation and expected return should be anchored to real constraints, especially the risk level the client is actually taking.
- Braden says planners should use assumptions to solve the expected case while still testing whether the plan survives unexpected outcomes.
- Adam Chapman says client pushback on longevity often reflects a deeper fear of brevity, not just disagreement with the data.
- The panel agrees that planning software is useful for analysis, but judgment and client discovery determine whether the plan is actually implementable.
Notable quotes
“assumptions are the bridge that brings tomorrow into today so that a client can make good decisions now”
“Your plan is going to be wrong tomorrow. And it probably already is today, but that's not really the point”
“I think you've got to be a bit more careful with that assumption”
“the plan can still be very good and very correct. Understanding that we're planning for the expected outcome”
“the planning software does not dictate the planning process”
How the episode opens
This is the Rational Reminder podcast, a weekly reality check on sensible investing and financial decision-making from two Canadians. We are hosted by me, Benjamin Felix, chief investment officer, and Braden Warwick, financial planning product architect at PWL Capital. All right, EP, welcome to episode 391, kicking off early on in in 2026 here.
So, Braden, this episode really came from a panel that you were invited to speak on. Uh, and you kind of came back from the panel, you got great feedback, which was awesome. Uh, but you came back from the panel and said that it was a it was a great discussion.
Uh, good enough that you thought it might be a good topic for the podcast. And so what we ended up doing is just asking all of the other panel members, including the the moderator Erin, if they would be willing to come on the podcast and do not not necessarily a recreation, but kind of go through a similar progression of the discussion that you guys had in the panel. So why don't you talk about the panel and the genesis of this episode?
For sure. So I think I have to give credit to Alexander McQueen who thought of this idea originally which is to have someone like me with my kind of unique background and technical expertise and financial planning expertise alongside an actuary and alongside a financial planner to talk at a panel at the FPAN conference talking about how plan assumptions shape planning outcomes. So I thought it was a really cool topic.
It was a cool topic that I could bring my unique perspective on, but it was also really interesting to hear the perspective of of the co-hosts or the co-panelists at the at the conference because everybody brought something unique to the table.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- financial planning assumptions
- asset allocation returns
- client behavioral bias
- actuarial longevity
- stress testing projections
Watch the episode
Watch “How Assumptions Shape Financial Planning Outcomes | Rational Reminder 391” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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The Rational Reminder Podcast, this episode and its artwork belong to Benjamin Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Dan Bortolotti. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
