Episode summary
Shelly Antoniewicz: The State of Investing in 2026 | Rational Reminder 410
The Rational Reminder Podcast
· · 1 hr 6 min · Hosts: Benjamin Felix · Guests: Shelly Antoniewicz
Summary
Shelly Antoniewicz argues that regulated funds remain a huge and important conduit for capital allocation, with global regulated fund assets at 88 trillion out of 313 trillion in worldwide capital markets at the end of 2025. She says US funds are still dominated by equities, with US equity funds alone at $27 trillion, and that the rise of index investing is real but often overstated in its market impact.
She notes that index mutual funds and index ETFs together held 52% of mutual fund and ETF assets in 2025, yet only 19% of the US equity market. In her view, the bigger structural story is not passive products “taking over,” but investor and advisor behavior shifting toward lower-cost vehicles, especially ETFs, and away from traditional active mutual funds. She points to advisor model portfolios, lower fees, and the convenience of ETF trading as key forces behind the migration.
Antoniewicz also emphasizes that fund competition remains intense even as the industry concentrates, with the largest five complexes controlling 58% of mutual fund and ETF assets. She says fees have fallen sharply over time, middle-class participation has widened through 401(k)s, and newer vehicles like interval funds and BDCs can fit into portfolios as long as investors understand their liquidity limits and risks.
Key takeaways
- Shelly Antoniewicz says regulated funds held 88 trillion, or 28%, of global capital markets at the end of 2025.
- She says index mutual funds and index ETFs together were 52% of fund assets, but only 19% of the US equity market.
- Antoniewicz says the five largest fund complexes controlled 58% of mutual fund and ETF assets in 2025, up from 45% in 2015.
- She says ETF sponsors captured 1.5 trillion of net new cash flows in 2025, while only 31% of long-term mutual fund sponsors got net new money.
- Antoniewicz says average equity mutual fund expense ratios fell from 99 basis points in 2000 to 40 basis points in 2025.
- She argues that interval funds and BDCs can be useful, but only when investors understand their redemption limits and liquidity tradeoffs.
Notable quotes
“regulated funds are super important. They're a really important conduit for allocating capital globally”
“Regulated fund assets accounted for 28% or 88 trillion”
“at the end of 2025 um 52% of of mutual funds and ETFs together uh 52% of mutual fund and ETF assets were in index ETF and index mutual funds”
“So if you look at the US equity market um between index uh um index mutual funds and index ETFs it's 19%”
“the largest five complexes at year end 2025 had 58% of of mutual fund and ETF assets”
How the episode opens
This is the Rational Reminder podcast, a weekly reality check on sensible investing and financial decision-making from two Canadians. We're hosted by me, Benjamin Felix, chief investment officer, and Dan Bordalotti, portfolio manager at PWL Capital. — Welcome to episode 410.
Yeah. So, in this episode, we're joined by Shelley Anteneavich, who who I met in New York City when we were on a she was on a panel that I was moderating. Shelley is the chief economist at the Investment Company Institute or ICI.
So, ICI is a a trade association representing the asset management industry and the individual investors that they serve. And as a group, they advocate for policies that strengthen capital markets and de democratize access to them for the benefit of long-term individual investors saving for retirement and other financial goals. Um, they do a ton of research, which Shelley leads that team on uh the structure and trends of the ETF mutual fund industries uh on financial markets in the US and around the world.
and Shelley contributes to analysis on financial systemic risks and conducts economic analysis on the impacts of proposed laws and regulations governing funds. She's been with ICI since 2005, serving as senior economist, senior director of industry and financial analysis and deputy chief economist. And prior to that, she spent 13 years as as a staff economist and senior economist at the Federal Reserve Board.
And Shel's got a PhD in economics from the University of Wisconsin Madison. ICI produces I don't know if listeners will be familiar with this or not but they should be and we'll put a link to it in the description. ICI produces this massive document every year called the investment company fact book and it is it is the most comprehensive overview of the global the global fund industry.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- etfs vs mutual funds
- indexing impact
- fund fee decline
- fund sponsor concentration
- 401(k) retail participation
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Investment Company Institute (ICI)
Watch the episode
Watch “Shelly Antoniewicz: The State of Investing in 2026 | Rational Reminder 410” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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The Rational Reminder Podcast, this episode and its artwork belong to Benjamin Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Dan Bortolotti. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
