Episode summary
2026 Predictions with Dan Ives and Chris Verrone | The Real Eisman Playbook Episode 40
The Real Eisman Playbook
· · 1 hr 5 min · Hosts: Steve Eisman · Guests: Dan Ives, Chris Verrone
Summary
The discussion centered on how 2025 swung from euphoria to tariff-driven panic and then back toward a market led by AI, banks and a handful of cyclical winners. Chris Verrone argued that as long as banks are involved and credit stays calm, the market trend remains constructive, while Dan Ives framed 2025 as one of the craziest years of his career because the AI buildout kept accelerating despite DeepSeek fears, tariff shocks and shifting narratives.
A major theme was whether AI spending is a bubble or the beginning of a much longer industrial buildout. Ives said the main investor worry is when monetization arrives, but he sees demand, capex and enterprise use cases still in early days. He highlighted Oracle, Palantir, Nvidia, Snowflake, MongoDB, CrowdStrike, GE Vernova and Nebius as ways to play the second and third derivatives of AI, while Eisman pushed on power constraints, diminishing returns in LLMs and the role of debt.
The trio also argued that housing remains dead, Tesla is a binary call on robotaxis, financials are broadly strong, and software may finally be setting up for a turnaround. Verrone and Ives both pointed to health care, consumer staples and some private-capital names as areas left behind, while regional banks may become a surprise leadership group if M&A finally accelerates.
Key takeaways
- Verrone’s base case is still bullish as long as banks remain involved and credit conditions stay calm.
- Ives thinks AI monetization is the key investor fear, but he sees the spending cycle still in its early stages.
- Oracle is presented as a large-cap table-pounding AI beneficiary despite concerns about OpenAI concentration and CDS widening.
- Housing is described as effectively dead unless rates fall sharply or the policy environment changes on zoning and affordability.
- Tesla is treated as a high-stakes, binary story centered on whether robotaxis and autonomy become real in 2026.
- The panel thinks regional banks could outperform money-center banks next year if M&A and deregulation continue.
Notable quotes
“The big concern is just when's monetization of AI going to happen? Is it going to be quick enough”
“I think this is like a top two or three crazy year that I've had in my career”
“No, just housing is just dead”
“It's about owning real stuff”
“I'm not interested in predicting the end of the world anymore because believe me, it was no fun the first time around”
How the episode opens
We're going to do a year-end review. We're going to talk about next year because there's just not that much to talk about. Dan Ives of Wedbush, Chris Veron of Strategus. Right after Liberation Day, April 7th, we were down 20 plus% relatively quickly on all the major averages. And just think of how the narratives have shifted so many times.
I think this is like a top two or three crazy year that I've had in my career.
When you're talking to investors on the tech trade, what are the big concerns? The big concern is just when's monetization of AI going to happen? Is it going to be quick enough that investors are not going to be like white flag you got to stop spending and become self prophecy to have a view that this is an AI bubble?
We're just in the early days of the demand cycle. But given China, given where they are from an energy perspective, it is an arms race what we need to do.
Whatever rates have done hasn't helped housing at all. — No, just housing is just dead. I think it's a very important frankly next couple weeks for these housing stocks. — What's your prediction for next year? — Bitcoin's weakness kind of the first hint of the first tell that 26 is not about owning purely liquidity driven high beta speculative assets. It's about owning real stuff.
I'm not interested in predicting the end of the world anymore because believe me, it was no fun the first time around. — Get the popcorn out. It's going to be, you know, obviously a lot of ups and downs. — Hi, this is Steve Eisman and welcome to the real Eisman playbook. And here we have two great guests today.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai concerns
- housing market
- tesla uncertainty
- fed cuts
- crypto predictions
Companies and tickers mentioned
- ORCL
- TSLA
- Wedbush
- Strategas
- Oracle
- Tesla
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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The Real Eisman Playbook, this episode and its artwork belong to Steve Eisman. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
