Episode summary
AI Revolution: Winners & Losers w/ Dan Ives & Gil Luria | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 70
The Real Eisman Playbook
· · 52 min · Hosts: Steve Eisman · Guests: Dan Ives, Gil Luria
Summary
The discussion centered on whether the AI trade has entered a different phase: not just who is winning, but whether the huge capital buildout will earn its keep. The host and the guests argued that AI is still in an early, multi-year expansion, but the debate has shifted from pure enthusiasm to questions about returns on data centers, whether models are becoming commoditized, and which companies will capture the value chain. One guest emphasized that the market is creating real revenue from AI already, while the other stressed that the supply chain, chips, compute, and distribution layers may matter more than the model-makers themselves.
They spent most of the conversation comparing likely winners and laggards across software and infrastructure. Microsoft, Google, Apple, Oracle, Nvidia, Micron, Palantir, and Salesforce came up repeatedly as examples of different exposures to the buildout. The guests argued that Microsoft and Google can turn their data-center scale into moats, Apple can monetize consumer AI through the device layer, and Oracle’s massive backlog is no longer obviously worthless after OpenAI’s capital raise.
They also pushed back on the idea that AI is a job-destroying force. The guests said productivity gains usually create more investment and more jobs, and warned that political resistance to data centers could slow U.S. leadership versus China. The host closed by framing the conversation as a market map for where AI adoption is real, where it is overhyped, and where investors may be over- or under-reacting.
Key takeaways
- The guests see AI as a year-3-to-year-10 buildout, not a finished trade, and expect recurring "gut check" selloffs along the way.
- One guest said the AI value chain spans chips, equipment, compute, and model companies, with more than $100 billion of current revenue already being generated from AI use.
- The guests argued Microsoft, Google, and Oracle can build durable moats through data centers and distribution, even if model competition remains intense.
- The host and the guests said Salesforce is vulnerable because budget pressure is forcing customers to cut weaker software, while Microsoft is still seeing AI-driven acceleration.
- The guests warned that political pushback on data centers could hurt U.S. AI leadership and hand an advantage to China.
Notable quotes
“I think you're going to go through what I'll call like these gut check moments three to four times a year”
“the value continues to be in the data and the install bases”
“I mean, look, I I just think there's one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution”
“Salesforce is in the category of software that they're trying to cut”
How the episode opens
Hi, this is Steve Eisman and this is another episode of the real Eisman playbook. The biggest debates going on right now are clearly involving AI, how profitable it's going to be, how sustainable it's going to be. The debate also changes almost on a week-to-eek basis.
It's really quite extraordinary. And so today, I'm going to interview two tech analysts. Dan Ies who has left Wedbush and has gone on to create his own investment bank and Gilura of Davidson.
What I like about these two is they cover a broad swath of the tech sector. You know, most tech analysts cover chips or they cover tech equipment or they cover software, but these two cover pretty much everything. So, I think they're going to have a lot to say about the breadth and length of debate.
and I'll be back at the end to talk about lessons learned. But before we start, if you like what we're doing on our interviews and our weekly rap, the best way to support the Real Eyesman playbook is to subscribe as free subscribers on YouTube and on Substack. Hi, this is Steve Eisman and welcome to another episode of the Real Eyesman Playbook.
So there's so much going on in tech literally every single week. You know, I talk about it on the rap. I I've never seen a group where the pace of change is so big that every single piece of news is not like incremental.
It's almost thesis changing. So today we have as two guests. First recurring guest Dan Ies.
Great to be here as always. — And new guest Gil Lauria. — Thank you. — Dan is doing a new gig which we won't talk about. and Gil is at Davidson. That's right. — And they cover what one of the reasons why I have you guys on is you c you know most people just cover semiconductors or they cover software but you guys cover a very broad swath and what's happening impacts so much.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai trade
- winners and losers
- ai compared to last year
- data center politics
- semis and megacap stocks
Companies and tickers mentioned
- GOOGL
- GOOG
- ORCL
- AAPL
- PLTR
- Oracle
- Apple
- Palantir
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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The Real Eisman Playbook, this episode and its artwork belong to Steve Eisman. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
