Episode summary
Is a Recession Coming? What 100+ Companies Are Telling Us | The Weekly Wrap
The Real Eisman Playbook
· · 32 min · Hosts: Steve Eisman
Summary
Steve Eisman argues that this week’s earnings did not show a recession brewing, even with war-related oil pressure and a volatile backdrop. He says more than 100 companies across industrials, software, healthcare, and housing mostly reported decent results, and that the bank credit data last week plus this week’s broader read still point away from an imminent downturn.
He highlights several sector-specific stories. Blackstone’s private credit fund showed softer inflows and weaker marks, while FICO lost its decades-long mortgage-score monopoly after the FHFA opened the door to VantageScore. In health insurance, UnitedHealthcare, Elevance, and Molina all looked better than expected overall, though Eisman remains cautious on Molina’s longer-term earnings path because Medicaid attrition is leaving a sicker pool of members.
The strongest constructive calls were in industrials, especially GE Aerospace and GE Vernova, where Eisman points to powerful order growth and long earnings visibility tied to aircraft demand and AI-driven electricity needs. By contrast, he says the software selloff reflects a fragile narrative: ServiceNow and IBM both posted decent numbers, but investors punished them anyway. He also says homebuilders are still pressured by higher rates, though the sector is reacting to very low expectations.
Key takeaways
- Eisman says the earnings season so far does not support a recession call, despite war-related noise and higher oil prices.
- Blackstone’s BCRED saw gross inflows of about $230 million in April, down from a 2025 average near $1 billion a month, while performance was flat in March.
- The FHFA’s move to accept VantageScore loans means FICO’s mortgage-score monopoly is effectively over, and Eisman says he is short FICO.
- UnitedHealthcare beat with EPS of $7.23 versus $6.57 expected, but Eisman says Optum remains a future concern.
- Eisman is constructive on GE Aerospace and GE Vernova because orders are surging and AI/data-center electricity demand supports gas turbines.
- He says software investors should be careful after ServiceNow and IBM were sold off despite solid reported growth.
Notable quotes
“there was certainly no data that indicated that a recession is looming”
“FICO has had a monopoly on this process for decades, no longer”
“The negative reactions to Service Now and IBM show how precarious building a positive software narrative can be”
“I would tread very carefully”
How the episode opens
Because of higher oil prices, the war is impacting the earnings of some companies. Is a recession on the horizon? We will look at this week's quarterly earnings for clues.
This week, well over a 100 companies reported across multiple industries. These results give us a big window into the health of the economy. The results at United Healthcare, Elephants, and Molina were mostly better than expected or at least met expectations.
The industry is turning or at least appearing to turn. The negative reactions to Service Now and IBM show how precarious building a positive software narrative can be. I would tread very carefully.
Hi, this is Steve Eisman and welcome to another episode of the weekly rap. This is for the week ending Friday, April 24th, but recorded Thursday night, April 23. I'm excited to share that in a few weeks we'll be announcing an additional feature to the real Eisman playbook alongside our existing Monday and Friday episodes.
This is something we've been building behind the scenes and it's going to take things in a really exciting new direction. We'll be revealing more soon. Signing up for the mailing list grants access to a special founders offer when the new project goes live.
Visit realismanplaybook.com to sign up for our mailing list or visit the link in this episode's description. On this week's rap, we will discuss one, the war in Iran remains opaque. Two, some revealing news and private credit.
Three, is a recession on the horizon? We will look at this week's quarterly earnings for clues. It was a big, big week for earning season.
We have a broad base of companies to discuss from industrials to software and private equity. These results give us a big window into the health of the economy. And four, I discuss comments and questions from two viewers.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- recession outlook
- earnings week
- private credit
- health insurance
- fico credit scoring
Companies and tickers mentioned
- BX
- FICO
- Blackstone
- FICO
Watch the episode
Watch “Is a Recession Coming? What 100+ Companies Are Telling Us | The Weekly Wrap” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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The Real Eisman Playbook, this episode and its artwork belong to Steve Eisman. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
