Episode summary
Private Credit Cracks, The AI "Boogeyman" & Why Crypto is for Boomers | The Real Eisman Playbook
The Real Eisman Playbook
· · 50 min · Hosts: Steve Eisman · Guests: Glenn Shorr, Dwight Collins
Summary
The conversation centers on whether the selloff in private credit and private equity names reflects real credit stress or mostly fear, optics, and flow pressure. The host and his guests argue that the Blue Owl episode was more about a poorly timed restructuring and bad perception than a broad breakdown in private lending. They note that the private credit market has grown to about 1.8 trillion, but direct lending still usually sits behind substantial equity cushions, so equity holders would be hit first if credit quality worsens.
They also separate direct lending from the broader private credit universe, arguing that real estate credit, infrastructure debt, and asset-backed finance have different risk profiles and are not all being priced fairly by the market. One guest says the public stocks are being treated as if private markets are dead, even though most large U.S. private companies still rely on private capital and banks for financing.
The episode then turns to AI-driven volatility in financial stocks, bank M&A that still looks slower than expected, crypto regulation that may constrain stablecoin competition, and payments, where the long-term conclusion remains that Visa and Mastercard are the cleanest holdings while most other names are harder to underwrite.
Key takeaways
- The guests argue the Blue Owl episode looked like a perception shock, not proof of a systemwide private credit crisis.
- Direct lending is overindexed to software, but the guests say the typical deal structure still leaves lenders well protected by equity.
- The host says public equity prices for private-market managers imply investors think private markets will never matter again, which he calls wrong.
- Bank M&A has remained slower than expected despite a friendlier regulatory backdrop and lower interest rates.
- On payments, the guests agree Visa and Mastercard remain the simplest long-term investments, while most other names are trading vehicles only.
Notable quotes
“the market is taking of wait is this a window into everything private credit”
“The stocks trade as if the private markets aren't a thing anymore. That no one will put money into these products anymore”
“We should define when we're talking about private credit what we're talking about versus the issues right now that we've been talking about are direct lending”
“86% of companies in the United States with 100 million or more of revenue are private”
How the episode opens
Hey, it's Steve Eisman. So, today we're going to interview two guests, two old friends. Glenn Shore, Dwight Collins.
I call this depth and breath. Glenn is the analyst at Evercore who covers the investment banks, asset managers, alternative asset managers, companies like that. And Dwight is the head of sales at Autonomous, which is a boutique firm that specializes in financial companies.
So Glenn has great depth on the companies that he covers, and Dwight basically covers everything. So depth and breath. And what are we going to talk about today?
We're going to talk about the topics that are on everybody's minds, which is what in the world is going on in private equity and private credit. People are literally freaking out. Some of these stocks like Blue Owl were down 30, 40, 50% this year.
People are wondering whether there's going to be a terrible credit cycle. They're worried about the fact that companies like Blue Owl and Apollo might be overexposed to lending to software companies. Everybody's worried about what's going on with AI and software.
And so, we're going to explore that. We're going to explore what's going on a little bit in payments. And we're also going to explore some of the sectors that have gotten hurt from rumors about AI.
Hi, this is Steve Eisman and welcome to another edition of the Real Eisman Playbook. And today we're going to be discussing with two guests, Glenn Shore of Evercore and Dwight Collins of Autonomous about everything that's going on in the financial services sector because well there's a lot going on in the financial services sector this day. So before we just talk Glenn, tell everybody what you do.
Dwight, tell everybody what you do. Go ahead Glenn. Sure.
Thanks. I'm Glenn Shore.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- private credit
- private equity
- ai disruption in finance
- bank mergers and acquisitions
- crypto and bitcoin
Companies and tickers mentioned
- EVR
- SOFI
- Evercore
- Autonomous Research
- SoFi
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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The Real Eisman Playbook, this episode and its artwork belong to Steve Eisman. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
