Episode summary
Who Wins the Midterms & What It Means for Markets with Dan Clifton | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 67
The Real Eisman Playbook
· · 45 min · Hosts: Steve Eisman · Guests: Dan Clifton
Summary
Dan Clifton argues that the 2026 midterms are setting up as a referendum on Trump’s approval rating and the economy, with the House leaning Democratic and the Senate still likely Republican. He says Trump’s April 2025 tariff rollout turned the president’s economic approval negative and helped make the midterms a national rather than local race. On the Senate map, he sees North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Nebraska as the key battlegrounds, but thinks Democrats are unlikely to reach the four-seat gain needed for control.
Clifton also argues that tariffs have shifted from a drag to a tailwind. He says the effective tariff rate has fallen, supply chains have adjusted, refund payments are flowing, and the legal replacement for the blocked tariffs will come through Section 301. In his view, that, along with corporate tax cuts and AI spending, is adding stimulus to the economy rather than subtracting from it.
On the Fed, Clifton says the bigger story is not near-term rate moves but Kevin Warsh’s push to shrink the Fed’s roughly $6 trillion balance sheet by about $1 trillion over time. He thinks that regime change, plus bank deregulation and potential political timing around Jerome Powell’s seat, could reshape policy. Looking ahead to 2028, he says the Democratic field is wide open, while the Republican side still runs through J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio, though he thinks neither is a lock.
Key takeaways
- Clifton thinks Democrats are likely to win the House in 2026, but not the four Senate seats needed for control.
- He says Trump’s tariff rollout turned the president’s economic approval negative and remains a major midterm liability.
- Clifton argues tariffs have flipped into a macro tailwind, with refunds, a lower effective rate, and new legal workarounds supporting growth.
- He says Kevin Warsh’s real Fed agenda is shrinking the balance sheet, not just debating the next rate move.
- Clifton sees 2028 as an open race, with Newsom, Harris, Buttigieg, Vance, Rubio, and DeSantis all still in play.
Notable quotes
“Trump put out all those tariff proposals and his approval rating on the economy went negative right after that and has remained negative”
“the Democrats only need three seats in the House, and they're probably going to get those three seats in the House”
“We have only collected in the US Treasury $35 billion of net tariff revenue year to date”
“What Warsh is literally arguing is that we're making a policy choice to have a large balance sheet and high interest rates”
How the episode opens
Hey, it's Steve Eisman. Welcome to another episode of the Real Eisman Playbook. So, we began this whole project in early April of last year, and our very, very first guest was Dan Clifton, and he came on just as President Trump had recently announced his tariffs.
Dan is the political analyst at Strategas. It was an amazing interview. Could not have been more timely.
We had Dan back on a a Friday episode talking about the big, beautiful bill, and we've got him back today to talk about the midterm elections, policies, tariffs, the Fed, the next presidential election. It's going to be great, and I'll be back afterwards with some final thoughts. Hi, this is Steve Eisman, and this is another episode of the Real Eisman Playbook.
So, today I'm very pleased to say that we've got a recurring guest coming back, Dan Clifton, who was actually our very, very first guest. So, Dan is the I guess what you For lack of a better term, you're the politics analyst at that Strategas.
Well, thank you for having me. It's great to be here. — So, you were here I was our very first episode. It was I think it was April 6th of last year. Every word out of everybody's mouth was tariffs.
Yep. — And the market bottomed like 3 days after our podcast. — Yeah, yeah, yeah. — And nothing has happened in the world since. — Yeah, right. — Absolutely nothing. It's very boring. Thank you all, and we'll see you next week. So, let's start with something I don't know if it's not controversial, but not too emotional, cuz so much of what's going on is so emotional.
Yeah. — Talk Talk to us about the midterm elections, which are coming up.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- 2026 midterms
- tariffs
- fed balance sheet
- bank regulation
- 2028 presidential race
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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The Real Eisman Playbook, this episode and its artwork belong to Steve Eisman. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
