Episode summary
How Your Body Data Could Reshape Sectors
Thoughts on the Market (Morgan Stanley)
· · Guests: Erin Wright
Summary
The guest argues that healthcare is shifting from reactive treatment to proactive prevention as consumers increasingly use lab tests, wearables, imaging, and digital tools to identify risks earlier. That change, she says, is becoming an investable theme because it could influence both healthcare spending and behavior across consumer industries.
She points to the scale of the opportunity: the U.S. spends about 3 to 4 trillion annually on chronic disease, including lost productivity, and about 1.4 trillion of 2024 spend was tied to preventable diseases. On her estimates, expanded preventive testing, screening, and monitoring could avoid roughly 200 billion to 800 billion of U.S. healthcare spend by 2050 if it reduces preventable disease costs by about 10 to 30%.
She also highlights where this behavior is already showing up. Direct-to-consumer lab testing is now a roughly $4 billion U.S. market, more than doubled since 2021, while 41% of respondents in the firm’s survey currently use a wearable or fitness device and many say they change behavior based on the data. The ripple effects could reach food, fitness, and imaging, though she warns the trend could still fade if privacy, cost, and repeat-use issues limit adoption.
Key takeaways
- The guest says preventive health is moving from the clinic into daily life, with self-directed patients using tests and wearables to act earlier.
- She estimates expanded preventive testing, screening, and monitoring could avoid roughly $200 billion to $800 billion of U.S. healthcare spend by 2050.
- Direct-to-consumer lab testing is a roughly $4 billion U.S. market that has more than doubled since 2021, according to the guest.
- The guest says 41% of respondents currently use a wearable or fitness device, and 34% of those users regularly change behaviors based on the data.
- She sees possible benefits for value-based care, while also flagging risks from out-of-pocket costs, privacy concerns, and inconsistent interpretations.
Notable quotes
“healthcare is moving from reactive to proactive. Instead of waiting for symptoms, more consumers are using lab tests, wearables, imaging, and digital tools”
“We think expanded preventative testing, screening, and monitoring can help avoid roughly 200 billion to 800 billion of US healthcare spend by 2050”
“Direct to consumer lab testing lets people order lab tests directly, often online, without starting with a traditional doctor visit”
“Our survey found that 41% of respondents currently use a wearable or fitness device while another 22% are interested in getting one”
“consumers are clearly taking more control of their health and increasingly asking, "What can I learn before I get sick”
How the episode opens
Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Aaron Wright, Morgan Stanley's US healthcare services analyst. Today, the emergence of the self-directed patient and its implications.
It's Tuesday, May 12th at 10:00 a.m. in New York. A blood test ordered from your phone, a wearable that tracks your sleep, or nudges you to move, recover, hydrate, or rethink last night's dinner.
Preventative health is moving out of the clinic and into everyday life. And that shift is becoming an investable theme. In essence, healthcare is moving from reactive to proactive.
Instead of waiting for symptoms, more consumers are using lab tests, wearables, imaging, and digital tools to spot some of these risks earlier. And this shift reaches well beyond healthcare. On our estimates, the US spends about 3 4 trillion annually on chronic disease, including lost economic productivity.
About 1.4 trillion of 2024 spend was tied to preventable diseases. So the big investment question is, can earlier detection and behavior change bend the cost curve? We think expanded preventative testing, screening, and monitoring can help avoid roughly 200 billion to 800 billion of US healthcare spend by 2050.
That assumes preventative testing reduces preventable disease costs by about 10 to 30% based on our analysis. Direct to consumer lab testing lets people order lab tests directly, often online, without starting with a traditional doctor visit. We see this as a roughly $4 billion US market which has more than doubled since 2021.
And it's no longer niche. Our Alpha Wise survey found that about 34% of respondents completed a voluntary wellness lab test in the past 3 years. Among users, the average was 3.2 tests, suggesting this is not just a one-time behavior.
The most common test was a general health profile used by about 45% of recent testers. Wearables are the other part of the story.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- health data
- preventive diagnostics
- healthcare costs
- industry impact
- sector rotation
Watch the episode
Watch “How Your Body Data Could Reshape Sectors” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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