Episode summary
Godzilla vs. King Kong, Degen Dip-Buyers and Anthropic | Trillions
Trillions
· · 13 min · Hosts: Joel Weber · Guests: Athanasios Psarofagis, Isabelle Lee
Summary
Vanguard appears to be pulling ahead of BlackRock in the U.S. ETF race after years of trading places, with the guest saying Vanguard’s low-cost core lineup has helped it finally close the gap and may now be running away with the lead. The discussion also notes that BlackRock has tried to defend its position by pushing into Bitcoin and active products, while Vanguard is now leaning more aggressively into bonds, where BlackRock’s iShares franchise still has strength.
A second theme is the rise and fall of niche, high-octane ETF products. The guests point to Trader’s closures of leveraged SK hynix ETFs as a reminder that timing matters in “hot sauce shelf” products: if the underlying stock does not rip immediately, demand can disappear. They also note that South Korea’s leveraged-ETF craze was so intense it reached politics, but volume fell once regulators tried to rein it in.
Flows into semiconductor ETFs remain strong despite a sharp pullback, with investors buying the dip in 3x long products tied to AI and chip names. The episode closes on Anthropic, where the guests expect pre-IPO ETF demand to echo the SpaceX playbook, though they doubt it will fully match SpaceX’s day-one frenzy.
Key takeaways
- The guest says Vanguard has likely overtaken BlackRock in U.S. ETF assets because cheap core funds keep winning even as BlackRock pushes into Bitcoin and active ETFs.
- The analyst says Vanguard is now pressing into bonds, where iShares still leads, suggesting the next battlefront may be fixed income.
- Trader’s leveraged SK hynix ETFs were shut down after failing to catch a major rally, underscoring how quickly niche leveraged products can lose demand.
- The guest says semiconductor ETF flows are surging again, with investors buying 3x long exposure after roughly a 17% drawdown from October highs.
- The analyst expects Anthropic-linked ETFs to see heavy pre-IPO interest, but probably not the same day-one trading fever as SpaceX.
Notable quotes
“Vanguard has closed the door”
“it's still passive that's out there”
“Timing with some of these products matters”
“I don't think it'll pass the SpaceX like level day one”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news.
Welcome to Trillions. I'm Joel Weber. Eric Baltunis is traveling.
So joining me for this episode, I have Athanasio Saraphagus, an ETF analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, as well as Isabelle Lee, a markets reporter with Bloomberg TV. And we have a few themes to explore. We've got a big data point which is in the latest chapter between Godzilla and King Kong, Vanguard, Black Rockck.
We also have a hot sauce shelf where some products seem to have an expiration date. And then we're going to go explore how some investors are continuing to buy the dip and where they're doing that. That's in our DGEN report.
And then finally, yeah or nah, we're going to explore the preIPO anticipation around Enthropic, which smells a lot like what we saw with SpaceX earlier this year. This time on Trillians, ETF grabb.
Aan Isabelle, welcome back to Trillions. — Excited to be here. I thought you were going to say you're stuck with us, but yes, we
I am. I am. uh and but I am excited to have a few themes that uh we get to explore together.
Okay, Aan, I'm going to put the the spotlight on you for a second. Topic number one, we're going to talk about big data point of note, Vanguard and Black Rockck. You know, I a couple months ago we wrote about how Vanguard had surpassed Black Rockck and I was like game over.
Turns out it wasn't totally game over. What happened? James Safar on our team had uh wrote this note about Vanguard passing Black Rockck and assets.
Like you mentioned, it happened a couple months ago. Didn't really hold. This one looks like it it might hold.
It ended up being like neck and neck and they were tustling and it but it seems like maybe now Vanguard has closed the door.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- etf competition
- vanguard vs blackrock
- leveraged semiconductor etfs
- dip-buying
- anthropic ipo
Companies and tickers mentioned
- BLK
- Vanguard
- BlackRock
- Anthropic
Watch the episode
Watch “Godzilla vs. King Kong, Degen Dip-Buyers and Anthropic | Trillions” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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