Episode summary
S&P Global (SPGI), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Deckers (DECK) | Stock Analysis & Valuation (TIP857)
We Study Billionaires
· · 1 hr 28 min · Hosts: Stig Brodersen · Guests: Tobias Carlisle, Hari Ramachandra
Summary
The conversation centered on three businesses that look cheap relative to their quality, with each speaker arguing that the market is pricing in too much bad news. Hari made the case for Novo Nordisk, saying the stock’s drop reflects Eli Lilly’s lead in obesity drugs, Medicare price negotiations, patent expiries, and doubts about Novo’s ability to keep innovating. He argued that even with those risks, the company’s foundation ownership, 12 times forward earnings, and roughly 4.5% dividend support a solid return profile if the franchise merely settles into second place.
Stig then pitched S&P Global as a rare chance to buy one of the world’s great businesses at a more reasonable valuation after years of multiple compression. He emphasized the ratings oligopoly, the recurring economics of index licensing, and the possibility that the market is overreacting to AI risk in the smaller market intelligence segment. He said he bought a starter position below $400 and expected double-digit returns if debt creation continues.
Tobias finished with Deckers, arguing that HOKA and UGG are durable brands priced as if growth has vanished. He highlighted the company’s net cash, aggressive buybacks, and clean capital allocation, while acknowledging that it is more fragile than SPGI or Novo because it depends on a narrower brand set.
Key takeaways
- Hari thinks Novo Nordisk is priced for permanent decline even though its obesity and diabetes franchises still have global scale and a new pill could change the story.
- Stig argues S&P Global’s ratings and index businesses remain structurally protected, and he bought a starter position at $399.
- Stig sees AI as a real threat mainly to market intelligence, not to the core ratings and indices franchises.
- Tobias says Deckers is cheap at 11 times earnings because the market is discounting HOKA and UGG as if they have no growth.
- Tobias likes Deckers’ $1.6 billion in net cash and buybacks equal to 80% of free cash flow as evidence of strong capital allocation.
Notable quotes
“it's a good business at a a price that assumes that it's a melting ice cube”
“I'm a huge fan of SPGI. It's one of the world's great companies”
“if you truly believe that we're going to see less debt creation moving forward, don't buy S&P Global”
“This is my favorite kind of setup”
How the episode opens
I'm a huge fan of SPGI. It's one of the world's great companies. Incredibly, incredible high returns on invested capital, very well protected.
I think that's a pretty good bet that the world's going to keep on issuing debt. It's a name that's been around for more than 100 years, 100 plus years. Spectacular business, one of the world's great businesses.
Welcome to the Investors Podcast. I'm your host Stick Broen and today for our mastermind discussion as always I'm here with my friends Hari and Toby Gens. What's going on?
Hey St. Hi Harry. How are you? — Hey Toby St. good to see you both and hello to everyone. Happy to be back. — Fantastic. — Yeah it's so so good seeing you and let's just jump right into it. Hari, let's uh let's hear your pick first.
Yeah, sure. I think um we were just discussing before we started recording. It's been a brutal market.
um and a confusing one too. Uh there are few winners, few maybe winners who are not at public but then there are a lot of losers in the game. So I was looking at some of the ones that has lost its shine or was much loved before but not anymore kind of opportunities.
So my pick today is one of those companies which two years ago was the most valuable company in Europe. Stig no points for you for guessing. I'm pretty sure you will know.
And pretty much everybody owned it. I don't know whether you owned it Stig, but pretty much a lot of people, a lot of ETFs, a lot of funds owned this company. The analysts really loved it.
But today that stock is down 40%. And from its 52- week high and it's trading roughly around 12 times forward earnings and basically everybody's saying parties over here.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- stock pitches
- novo nordisk obesity franchise
- s&p global ratings oligopoly
- deckers brands buybacks
- ai disruption market intelligence
Companies and tickers mentioned
- SPGI
- NVO
- DECK
- LLY
- S&P Global
- Novo Nordisk
- Deckers Brands
- Eli Lilly
- AlphaSense
- Rogo
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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We Study Billionaires, this episode and its artwork belong to The Investor's Podcast Network. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
