Episode summary
401(k) Real Talk Episode 180: February 11, 2026
Summary
Fred Barstein says the retirement plan market is starting 2026 under pressure, with January job creation far weaker than a year earlier and layoffs at their highest level since 2009. He argues that a weak labor backdrop is bad for employers’ willingness to expand retirement benefits and makes it harder for advisers to add services unless cost, work, and liability are tightly controlled.
He then highlights a major rollover opportunity that advisers are still missing. In Hearts & Wallets data, advisers captured only 22% of an estimated $1 trillion in IRA rollovers in 2025, even though that was up from 17% in 2024. Barstein says the biggest winners were firms like Schwab, Edward Jones, Vanguard, LPL, and Raymond James, while this shortfall is pushing more advisers and providers toward third-party partners to help win more rollover assets.
Barstein also points to growing interest in private markets inside defined contribution plans, saying Cerulli sees 20% of plans adding private investments within 10 years. He says momentum is strongest among larger plans, but sponsors are still cautious about cost and litigation. He closes with Basic Capital’s $25 million Series A and a warning from Lisa Gomez that plan sponsors should not let recordkeepers dictate participant access to third-party advice tools.
Key takeaways
- Fred Barstein says the January jobs picture was weak enough to threaten employer appetite for richer retirement benefits and new adviser services.
- Advisers captured only 22% of an estimated $1 trillion in IRA rollovers in 2025, according to Hearts & Wallets.
- Cerulli expects 20% of defined contribution plans to include private investments within 10 years, with the strongest interest in plans with $250 million to $1 billion in assets.
- Basic Capital raised $25 million to back a structured loan model that lets participants borrow up to four times their account balance.
- Lisa Gomez warns plan sponsors to review recordkeeper agreements because recordkeepers should not set the rules on participant access to third-party advice tools.
Notable quotes
“advisors captured just 22% according to Hearts and Wallets, which surveyed 6,000 households”
“Experts are predicting a deep freeze and continued bad results this year”
“Plan sponsors and their co-fiduciaries cannot be passive”
“Change happens very slowly in the DC world”
How the episode opens
Greetings and a warm welcome to this week's edition of 401k real talk. This is Fred Barstein, contributing editor at wealthmanagement.com's RPA Omni Channel and CEO at Trrow TPSU and 401k TV. I review all of this week's stories and select the most important and interesting ones, providing open, honest, and candid discussion you will not get anywhere else.
So, let's get real. 2026 job reports started out with a whimper as sources are reporting just 22,000 new positions added in January compared to 140,000 last January. The official BLS report is delayed again.
Layoffs are at their highest level since 2009 and job openings lowest since 2020. Engines of growth like health care and social services are slowing while business and tech companies are leveraging AI and are concerned about the economy and aggressively reducing staff. Experts are predicting a deep freeze and continued bad results this year.
All of which is not a good sign for employers to boost retirement benefits, making it more difficult for adviserss to provide additional services unless cost, work, and liability are at a minimum. Next story. Of the estimated 1 trillion in IRA rollovers in 2025, advisors captured just 22% according to Hearts and Wallets, which surveyed 6,000 households.
Though up from 17% in 2024, advisors are leaving a lot of money on the table. Rollins were 160 billion versus 80 billion in 2022 with Schwab, Edward Jones, Vanguard, LPL, and Raymond James the big winners and Fidelity Principal and Empire and the like showing the biggest outflows. All of which is causing more advisors and providers to partner with third parties like IRA Logix, Pensex, and Investorcom to help advisors and providers capture more of the 1 trillion in rollovers only expected to grow.
Next story, driven perhaps by the 2025 executive order, Cerulei is reporting growing interest by plan sponsors and alternative investments based on surveys with 966 plans, predicting that 20% of them will include private investments within 10 years.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- 401k job market outlook
- ira rollovers advisor share
- private market investments in retirement plans
- recordkeeper access fiduciary liability
- advisor vs recordkeeper relationship
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Basic Capital
- OneDigital
- Betterment
- Fidelity
Watch the episode
Watch “401(k) Real Talk Episode 180: February 11, 2026” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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