Episode summary
401(k) Real Talk Episode 194: May 27, 2026
Summary
Fred Barstein argues that several 401(k) trends are accelerating at once, with private markets, annuities, pooled employer plans, managed accounts, and record keeper consolidation all moving the retirement industry in different ways. He says Deote Consulting expects more than $1 trillion in DC plans by 2030 in alternatives, or 6% of DC assets, led by private equity, real estate, private credit, and infrastructure, with target date defaults seen as the likely entry point.
He also highlights Morningstar’s reporting that annuity-inclusive investments in DC plans have risen 150% over the past two years to $115 billion, helped by regulatory clarity and product launches from firms such as BlackRock and Vanguard. On pooled employer plans, he says advisor awareness remains uneven, especially among wealth-oriented advisors, even though smaller plans appear best suited for PEPs and advisors like the idea of lower cost and less administration.
Barstein frames Edelman Financial Engines as both a managed account provider and an aggregator, arguing that new leadership and reorganized management could help the firm better exploit the convergence of wealth and retirement. He closes by saying 401(k) record keeper consolidation has stalled because valuations have reset, leaving a fragmented market that remains unsustainable.
Key takeaways
- Fred Barstein says private market allocations in DC plans could top $1 trillion by 2030, with private equity the biggest slice at 43%.
- He says annuity use in DC plans has climbed to $115 billion, a 150% increase over two years.
- Limmer research cited by Barstein says only 17% of occasionalist advisors know about PEPs, versus 40% of hybrid advisors.
- Barstein argues Edelman Financial Engines has 300 billion in AUA and 221 billion in workplace managed accounts, giving it scale in both wealth and retirement.
- He says 401(k) record keeper consolidation is still stalled, despite more than 40 national and 200 regional record keepers remaining.
Notable quotes
“Deote Consulting is predicting that there will be over $1 trillion in DC plans, which is which will be 6% of DC assets by 2030”
“Morning Star is reporting that the 115 billion is a hund 150% increase for investments that include annuities over the past 2 years in DC plans”
“According to limmer research, just 17% of the occasionalists, mostly wealth advisors, even know about peps”
“The answer is yes. With recently anointed CEO Ralph Habberly, who came from Black Rockck and Capital Group”
“There are still over 40 national and 200 regional record keepers, which is unsustainable, but buyers have dried up”
How the episode opens
Greetings and a warm welcome to this week's edition of 401k Real Talk. This is Fred Barstein, contributing editor at Wealth Management's RPA channel and CEO at Trrow TPSU and 401k TV. I review all of this week's stories and select the most important and interesting ones, providing open, honest, and candid discussion you will not get anywhere else.
So, let's get real. First story, Deote Consulting is predicting that there will be over $1 trillion in DC plans, which is which will be 6% of DC assets by 2030, led by private equity at 43%, real estate at 28%, private credit at 20%, and infrastructure at 9%. The prediction follows the executive order and subsequent proposed DO rule, making it safer for plans to include alternatives, most likely through a target date default option.
As a result, many asset managers have launched products with the latest by AB, Carile, and Brookfield. Crueli research indicates that 37% of plan sponsors are interested and plans with 250 million to a billion most likely to adopt. Next story.
Morning Star is reporting that the 115 billion is a hund 150% increase for investments that include annuities over the past 2 years in DC plans. 50% of those assets are in 403b plans and target dates are up from 25 billion last year to 42 billion this year with 25 billion in the Black Rockck product launched in 2024. Morning Star says that the recent DO proposed rule which had been intended to primarily cover alternatives may give plans greater comfort to adopt annuitybased products.
Meanwhile, Vanguard in partnership with TIA launched a CIT target date fund which includes annuities for 401k plans late last year. Next story. Though most specialist RPAs may be familiar with PEPs, occasionalists and hybrids are not.
According to limmer research, just 17% of the occasionalists, mostly wealth advisors, even know about peps even though they are most likely to serve smaller plans which are best suited for them.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- 401k alts allocations
- annuity growth in dc plans
- pooled employer plans
- managed accounts vs aggregators
- record keeper consolidation
Companies and tickers mentioned
- BAM
- CG
- AB
- MORN
- MS
- Brookfield
- Carlyle
- AB
- Edelman Financial Engines
- Belfint
- Cohen Buckmann
- Morningstar
- Morgan Stanley
Watch the episode
Watch “401(k) Real Talk Episode 194: May 27, 2026” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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