Episode summary
3 Oil Stocks to Start 2026: Values or Traps?
Zacks Market Edge
· · Hosts: Tracey Ryniec, Mark Zinski, Neena Mishra, Ethan Feller, John Blank
Summary
Oil stocks opened 2026 on Venezuelan headlines, but the host argues the bigger issue is still weak fundamentals. She reviews Exxon XOM, Chevron CVX, and ConocoPhillips COP, saying all three are still tied to depressed oil prices, falling earnings estimates, and a market that has not yet rewarded investors for waiting. The thesis is that Venezuela may create long-term optionality, but any real restart there would take years and is not enough to justify chasing the stocks now.
Exxon is presented as the strongest of the group because of its Guyana exposure and dividend durability, but the host says it is still not cheap and remains near highs despite earnings pressure. Chevron looks similar, with a higher dividend yield but a higher forward P/E and more analyst cuts into 2026. ConocoPhillips is described as more exposed because it lacks the refining and chemicals businesses that can cushion downturns.
She briefly extends the same caution to SLB, saying service names may benefit if Venezuela eventually needs rebuilding, but that any boost is speculative and too far out to count on. Her bottom line is that energy is still a watchlist sector, not a buy list, and she remains on the sidelines for now.
Key takeaways
- The host says Exxon XOM is the best positioned of the majors because of Guyana, but it still is not cheap with earnings estimates under pressure.
- Chevron CVX offers a higher dividend yield at about 4.2%, yet analysts have still been cutting 2026 estimates and the stock remains range-bound.
- ConocoPhillips COP looks weaker because it is now mainly exploration and production, leaving it more exposed to low oil prices.
- The host thinks Venezuela is a long-term story, not a near-term catalyst, because rebuilding there would take years even if politics improve.
- SLB may get a headline boost from future Venezuela work, but the host calls it speculative and not an attractive value right now.
Notable quotes
“Should you be considering oil stocks again with uh what is happening in Venezuela”
“I still like Exxon if I'm looking at the big oil stocks, but again, it's not cheap”
“So I'm on the sidelines with all four of these stocks”
How the episode opens
Stocks, bonds, ETFs, straight out of downtown Chicago. This is Zach's Market Edge. Welcome to Zach's Market Edge, the podcast about investing in your life.
I'm your host Tracy Reinik and this is the first podcast of 2026 and I was given the topic right away in the new year as the US went into Venezuela and got President Maduro out to bring him to trial in New York. So, everyone is talking about oil. I thought we should too to start the year.
We really haven't covered it much here on the Market Edge podcast. I usually cover it pretty often on the value investor podcast because the stocks have been in the value category for a while again. Um but now is the time because again everybody is talking about it.
So what is going on? Should you be considering oil stocks again with uh what is happening in Venezuela? of Venezuela.
Uh, President Trump has said that he's hoping the private oil companies, the American private oil companies will go in, rebuild the infrastructure in Venezuela, and start to really get some of that oil that's there out of the ground. But, uh, as we know, those of us who've been following it, it's a very difficult proposition. Now, there were several American oil companies in Venezuela over the years.
Uh, those included Chevron, which has returned only in the last year or so, back in there. And then the other one was Kico Phillips, I think. Um, not sure if Exxon was in there too.
They might have been. They probably were. And, um, so those are the big ones.
Uh, US big oils as they're called, Exxon and Chevron now. And so I was gonna take a look at the three of them to kind of see what is going on right now with their earnings.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- oil stocks
- value investing
- energy sector
- 2026 outlook
- venezuela oil
Companies and tickers mentioned
- XOM
- CVX
- COP
- Exxon
- Chevron
- ConocoPhillips
- Venezuela
Watch the episode
Watch “3 Oil Stocks to Start 2026: Values or Traps?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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