Episode summary
SpaceX Stock Has Plunged: Buy it Now?
Zacks Market Edge
· · 25 min · Hosts: Tracey Ryniec, Mark Zinski, Neena Mishra, Ethan Feller
Summary
The host argues that SpaceX has become interesting only as a falling knife: the stock is down sharply from its IPO price, analysts have only just started covering it, and the first earnings report is still pending on August 4 after the close. The early read from Zacks data is mixed but improving: nine analysts are in, the Street is looking for a loss of 64 cents this year and earnings of 63 cents next year, while revenue is expected to surge 177% this year and nearly double again in 2027.
Even so, the host says the chart still looks weak. She points to the recent low around 107, warns that lockup expirations could add more selling pressure, and says the key psychological level to watch is $100. Her view is that the stock may still need to wash out further before it becomes attractive.
She also compares SpaceX with Tesla, arguing that Tesla may be part of the same trade but is not cheap enough to buy either. Tesla is shown as expensive on valuation, with analysts cutting estimates after earnings, and the host says she would still stay on the sidelines for both names.
Key takeaways
- The host says SpaceX is down 28% from its IPO price and could still be headed toward the $100 level.
- Analysts are modeling a 64-cent loss for SpaceX this year, but 63 cents of profit next year.
- Revenue expectations for SpaceX are very aggressive, with the Street calling for 177% growth this year and 90% in 2027.
- The host says lockup expirations could create more selling pressure before the stock finds a durable bottom.
- Tesla is also viewed as expensive, with a forward P/E of 171 and a PEG ratio of 7.8, so the host would not buy it either.
Notable quotes
“The stock has plunged off of its IPO price. It's well below it now, and it keeps hitting new lows”
“we are looking for a loss of 64 cents this year, but you might be surprised to see that they are expecting earnings to be positive by next year at plus 63”
“I would look for that $100 level as a key psychological level, and uh I do think it's going to want to test that”
“SpaceX now down 28% off of the IPO, not the all-time highs, just the IPO and Tesla down 24 in that same period”
“I would not be buying here either one. I'd still be on the sidelines, which is what I recommended at the IPO in June”
How the episode opens
Stocks, bonds, ETFs. Straight out of downtown Chicago. This is Zacks Market Edge.
Welcome to Zacks Market Edge, the podcast about investing in your life. I'm your host, Tracy Ryniec, and this week I'm going solo once again to talk about SpaceX. I got a lot of complaints on YouTube recently that I keep covering the same topics over and over.
Well, here's a new one for you because I haven't covered SpaceX at all on this podcast. I've been kind of waiting, waiting for it to launch, waiting to get the analyst estimates in, and now we have both of those things. The stock has plunged off of its IPO price.
It's well below it now, and it keeps hitting new lows. We haven't yet had the earnings come out yet, and we still have some lockup periods that are still to come come due soon that are going to put more shares out on the market. So, there's a lot going on with SpaceX.
In addition, will they be merging or joining with Tesla at some point? A lot of people think that they are. So, why not just buy Tesla if it's going to be bought out by SpaceX?
So, there's all these questions that are out there. So, I thought we'd take a look now that the stock is selling off to see if should we be buying SpaceX here, or should we still be waiting on the sidelines to maybe get it even cheaper? When the IPO went, my work colleague here at Zacks and I, Dave Bartosiak, did a event behind the scenes that covered whether or not, you know, what would happen with the YouTube or with the IPO.
And we had covered Alibaba's IPO all those years ago and so it was fun to reminisce on there about what happened with Alibaba and some of the other prominent IPOs and what might be happening with SpaceX.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- spacex stock
- buy the dip
- stock plunge
Companies and tickers mentioned
- SpaceX
Watch the episode
Watch “SpaceX Stock Has Plunged: Buy it Now?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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