Short Answer

Bitcoin is likely to reach $68,082.80 between 6:30PM and 6:45PM EST on Nov 13, priced by the market at 57.0%. The model assesses a higher 68.2% probability for this outcome.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • The $68,082.80 target is likely, contingent on aggressive buying pressure.
  • Bearish spot ETF outflows and derivative liquidations exert downward pressure.
  • The 200-week Simple Moving Average (~$67,999) likely provides a durable price floor.

Current Context

The queried Robinhood contract asks if Bitcoin (BTC) will be at or above $68,082.80 during the 6:30–6:45 PM EST window on November 13, 2026 [1]. This 15-minute event resolves Yes if the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 PM EST is at least the 60-second average before 6:30 PM EST [1][2]. Nearby Robinhood 15-minute BTC markets on the same day indicate BTC oscillated around $68,000–$68,500 in the late afternoon; for example, a 5:30–5:45 PM EST target of $68,237.15 traded at 74¢, and a 10:45–11:00 AM EST target of $68,114.85 traded at 98.4¢ [1][3][2][4]. This positions the $68,082.80 target near the prevailing price level. Other venues use different settlement feeds, as seen with Hypredict's 6:45 PM UTC market for $68,917, which uses a 60-second TWAP of the BTC-USDC perpetual mark price [5].
Bitcoin recently experienced sharp declines but found some support. On November 13, 2026, BTC fell below $70,000 for the first time since August, hitting a 12-week low of $67,770, with FXStreet reporting an intraday low of $67,568 [6][7]. BTC was down 3.5% since midnight UTC, amid trader expectations of an 88% chance of a 25 basis point Fed hike next month [6]. This period saw $1.64 billion in positions liquidated over 24 hours, with 88.7% being long positions, including $916 million in BTC, while spot BTC ETFs recorded a sixth consecutive day of outflows totaling approximately $1.44 billion [6]. Following the October PPI release (0.3% monthly vs 0.4% expected; 6.5% annual), BTC rebounded and found support around $69,000, retesting $70,000 [8]. 21shares strategist Matt Mena noted that a sustained recovery requires reclaiming $70,000 then $74,000, with holding $69,000 building a base [8]. Conversely, a break below $69,000 risks a retest of $65,000, though Q4 seasonality (historically averaging over 61% returns) could lead to a rebound towards $87,000–$90,000 [8]. Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan identified BTC's first test of its 200-week Simple Moving Average (~$67,993–$67,999) in 11 weeks as critical, warning that if the weekly RSI loses 41.5, a retest of the cycle low at $57,700 is possible [9]. FXStreet added that a weekly close below the 200-week SMA at $67,999 could signal a deeper move toward $60,000, while recovery targets include the 50-week SMA at $75,101 and the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $78,661 [7].
Broader market indicators signal caution, with varied longer-term price expectations. Glassnode's November 11 'Running on Empty' report highlighted BTC slipping below the short-term holder cost basis of $75,600, stablecoin supply shrinking at its fastest rate since June 2022, net selling by ETFs, and BTC trading at a discount on Coinbase [10]. Polymarket's November market, with $5.17 million in volume across 28 targets, priced a 91% chance of touching $75,000, 50% for $70,000, and 18% for $65,000 [10]. Its larger 2026 price-touch market ($84.26 million) assigned a 61% probability to $70,000, 34% to $65,000, and 18% to $90,000 [10]. Robinhood's general BTC prediction markets for 2026 extremes show 16% odds BTC goes under $55,000, 8% odds above $100,000, and 1% odds above $200,000 [11]. The Federal Reserve meets on December 8–9, 2026, with markets pricing approximately 88% odds of a 25 basis point hike [6][8].
Sources (11)
  1. 1November 13, 2026: BTC 15 min · 5:30–5:45 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 215 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  3. 3November 13, 2026: BTC 15 min · 4:00–4:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  4. 4November 13, 2026: BTC 15 min · 10:45–11:00 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  5. 5Bitcoin up or down 15m: price prediction | Hypredicthypredict.app
  6. 6Bitcoin falls below $70,000 as dollar surges and $1.6 billion liquidatedcoindesk.com
  7. 7Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC drops below $68,000 as oversold signal fails to stop sellersfxstreet.com
  8. 8Bitcoin Could Rebound to $90K but Risks $65K Retest: 21shares Strategistnews.bitcoin.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Faces Battle for Key Long-Term Trend Line at $68,000cointelegraph.com
  10. 10Bitcoin Is 'Running on Empty' as Price Bets and Hedges Shift: Glassnodenews.bitcoin.com
  11. 11Crypto BTC Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the final BTC price is above the target price of $68,082.80, and NO if it is at or below this target. The market runs from November 13, 6:30 PM EST, expiring at 6:45 PM ET. The official and final value is calculated as the average of 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected from CF Benchmarks during the last minute before expiration.

Market Discussion

The $68,082.80 target sits near a "biggest resistance wall" at ~$68,083 identified by one analyst due to multiple confluence factors [1], while other analysis on November 13, 2026, placed it within a major demand zone of $67,950–$68,100 suggesting potential support [2]. Despite an overall bearish sentiment on November 13, 2026, driven by an 8%+ drop, liquidations, and ETF outflows [3], a similar 15-minute prediction market at $68,070.53 resolved YES on November 13, 2026, highlighting the volatility and immediate sensitivity of such targets [4].

Sources (4)
  1. 1🚨 BTC IS HEADING STRAIGHT INTO ITS BIGGEST RESISTANCE WALL | Doctor-Strange on Binance Squarebinance.com
  2. 2BTC/USD 15-Minute Chart Analysis – Support Zone Bounce & Bullish for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by ZS_PERFECT_TRADER — TradingViewtradingview.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC drops below $68,000 as oversold signal fails to stop sellersfxstreet.com
  4. 4BTC 15 min · $68,070.53 target: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 80 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score63Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 3% of the price to slippage.

Trust score80Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
83Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $68,082.80—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $68,082.80—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $68,082.8095
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
63Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 55.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 55.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 1.8c slippage (~3% of a 55.5c contract)

Target Price: $68,082.80Primary–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 13, 2026

5. What specific order book dynamics on major exchanges like Coinbase and Binance could trigger a price swing through the $68,082 target during the 6:30-6:45 PM EST window?

Target Price$68,082.80 [1]
BTC Reference Price (6:09 PM EST)$68,007.80 [1]
Bid-to-Ask Depth Ratioapproximately 2.7:1 [2]
An upward swing above $68,082.80 hinges on aggressive buying. As of 6:09 PM EST, Bitcoin’s reference price was $68,007.80, just $75 below the $68,082.80 target [1]. To push past this target during the 6:30-6:45 PM EST window, aggressive spot buying would be required to consume offers on the Binance BTCUSDT perpetual futures order book at various price points, potentially initiating short liquidations near $68,562 [3][1][4]. The current order book shows bid depth exceeding ask depth by approximately 2.7:1, and with existing short liquidations, a short-squeeze above the target is considered plausible [2][1][3][5][4]. Should this upward momentum continue, a significant resistance point would be encountered at a $55 million sell wall located at $68,774.10 on Binance [5].
Conversely, a downside move requires a fresh selling catalyst. A decline through the $68,082.80 target would necessitate a new sell catalyst, such as negative news regarding ETF outflows, a significant macro headline, or a cascading series of perpetual futures liquidations [2][1][3][5][4]. Such selling pressure would involve consuming the existing bid stack on the Binance perpetual futures order book, notably a substantial $10.8 million bid positioned at $67,969, which lies just below the target price [2][3]. This downward pressure could then extend to trigger a liquidation cluster at $67,898.5 and potentially reach a $100 million buy wall predominantly located at $67,245.85 on Binance [1][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1BITCOIN MARKET REVIEWthru.capital
  2. 2Spot Order Book Heatmap: Where the Bids and Asks Sitbykaranteli.com
  3. 3Free Bitcoin (BTC) Liquidity Heatmap & Order Book Walls | Basisbasischarts.com
  4. 4Live Bitcoin Market Microstructure & Intraday Order Flow | thru.capitalthru.capital
  5. 5Bitcoin BTC Liquidation Heatmap & Liquidity Heatmap (BTCUSDT)pumpglass.com

6. What technical evidence supports the 200-week Simple Moving Average (~$67,999) acting as a durable price floor for Bitcoin on November 13, 2026?

Bitcoin 200-week SMA touch~$67,993 (intraday lows $67,500–$67,652) on Nov 13, 2026 [1][2][3][4]
Historical 200-week SMA deviation11 of 14 episodes below 200W SMA lasted 15 days or less [5]
Current buy order supportSizeable bids between $68,000 and $72,500 [3]
Technical evidence strongly suggests the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) serves as a durable price floor for Bitcoin. On November 13, 2026, Bitcoin touched its 200-week SMA, calculated at approximately $67,993, experiencing intraday lows between $67,500 and $67,652 before stabilizing in the $68,100–$68,500 range [1][2][3][4]. This event, following 88 consecutive daily closes above the 200-week average, highlights the historical resilience of this key technical level [6]. The 200-week SMA itself exhibited dynamism, rising to $68,006 at the close on November 12, indicating a continuously adjusting floor [7].
Historically, the 200-week SMA consistently acts as a strong historical support for Bitcoin. Galaxy Research reported only 56 of 642 weekly closes below this level since 2014 [8]. Furthermore, FalconX observed that 11 of 14 distinct episodes where Bitcoin closed below the 200-week SMA since 2015 lasted 15 days or less, indicating rapid recovery and aggressive buy support near this critical threshold [5]. On November 13, 2026, Glassnode data revealed substantial buy bids ranging from $68,000 to $72,500, with an additional cost-basis cluster of earlier purchases at $62,000–$66,000 providing further cushioning against selling pressure [3].
Multiple technical indicators and market sentiment reinforce this support level. Keith Alan highlighted the confluence of the 200-week SMA with a weekly RSI support/resistance flip at 41.5 [1][4]. Robinhood market data for November 13, 2026, showed Bitcoin's price target of $68,082.80 just above the 200-week SMA, coinciding with a daily RSI near 25 and a Fear & Greed Index at 20 [9][10][11][3]. These signals are typically associated with oversold conditions and extreme fear, often preceding a price bounce. Despite recent headwinds such as five consecutive weekly losses and hot US October producer prices, the combination of these support levels and historical resilience contributes to the outlook that the 200-week SMA will serve as a strong price floor [1][2][3][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Bitcoin Faces Battle for Key Long-Term Trend Line at $68,000ct.com
  2. 2Live updates: Bitcoin eyes bear market lows as late summer rally mostly wiped outcoindesk.com
  3. 3Bitcoin price slides to the 200-week moving averagecryptoticker.io
  4. 4Bitcoin slips to $68,500 as 21Shares strategist maps out key price testscryptobriefing.com
  5. 5Signals from a Turbulent Marketfalconx.io
  6. 6Bitcoin Support Levels Today: Averages, Realized Price and Power Lawcryptokeyhole.com
  7. 7200-Week Moving Average: Is Bitcoin Near Its Floor? | Maketomaketo.com
  8. 8All Eyes on BTC's 50-Week Moving Average | Galaxygalaxy.com
  9. 9November 13, 2026: BTC 15 min · 5:30–5:45 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  10. 1015 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  11. 11November 13, 2026: BTC 15 min · 4:00–4:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  12. 12Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC drops below $68,000 as oversold signal fails to stop sellersfxstreet.com

7. How does the bearish sentiment from spot BTC ETF outflows compare with the panic reflected in the $1.64 billion derivatives liquidation on November 13?

Spot BTC ETF Outflows$1.44 billion over six consecutive days ending Nov 12 [1]
Derivatives Liquidation$1.64 billion on Nov 13 [2][3][4][5]
Long Positions Liquidated$1.46 billion (88.6-89.3%) [2][5]
Bearish spot BTC ETF outflows significantly reduced market liquidity. Approximately $1.44 billion in spot BTC ETF outflows occurred over six consecutive days, concluding on November 12, contributing to a broader market liquidity drain [1][6][7]. This institutional deleveraging coincided with a $14.2 billion decrease in stablecoin supply over 30 days and a 17% drop in BTC open interest in under a month, all pointing to a considerable reduction in overall market liquidity [6][7]. Crucially, the ETF outflows removed institutional buying pressure precisely when market leverage was already elevated [6][7].
Market conditions led to a substantial derivatives liquidation event. The combination of high existing market leverage and diminished liquidity intensified a $1.64 billion derivatives liquidation on November 13, impacting between 185,595 and 187,171 traders [2][3][4][5][6][7]. This liquidation predominantly affected long positions, accounting for $1.46 billion, or 88.6% to 89.3% of the total, with BTC futures alone contributing $916 million [2][3][4][5]. Both the extended period of ETF outflows and the cascade of liquidations were underpinned by shared macroeconomic factors, including higher-than-expected October CPI data, a nearly 90% probability of a December Federal Reserve rate hike, a dollar currency at a 19-month high, and 10-year Treasury yields at 5.16% [3][8][7].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Bitcoin ETFs are now down over $1.5 billion in net outflows for the yearcoindesk.com
  2. 2Bitcoin falls below $70,000 as dollar surges and $1.6 billion liquidatedcoindesk.com
  3. 3Bitcoin slides toward $67,568 as $1.64 billion liquidation wave hits traders on a scary Fridayfxstreet.com
  4. 4Bitcoin (BTC) Prints 'End of the World' Candle: $1.6 Billion Liquidation Triggers Drop — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Price Decline Breaks $70,000 Amid Fed Rate Hike Expectationsen.cryptonomist.ch
  6. 6Bitcoin Faces $63K–$66K Risk as ETF Outflows Drain Liquidity | Investing.cominvesting.com
  7. 7Bitcoin Price Forecast — BTC-USD ($68,644) $75,200 Upside Target on $1.64B Liquidation Flush and 200-Week MA Testtradingnews.com
  8. 8Bitcoin Faces Battle for Key Long-Term Trend Line at $68,000cointelegraph.com

8. Which data providers offer real-time tracking of whale wallets and exchange liquidations to monitor for catalysts in a 15-minute timeframe?

CoinGlass Exchange CoverageOver 30 exchanges (CoinGlass) [1]
CoinGlass Refresh RateSub-minute refresh on paid tiers (CoinGlass) [1]
Tracked Hyperliquid Whale Positions150+ tracked (XOOMAR) [2]
CoinGlass and ChainVector are prime choices for real-time market insights. CoinGlass and ChainVector stand out as key providers for real-time tracking of whale wallets and exchange liquidations, suitable for monitoring 15-minute BTC catalysts. CoinGlass offers real-time liquidation order streams via WebSocket, along with liquidation heatmaps covering over 30 exchanges, refreshing at sub-minute intervals on paid tiers. It also provides Hyperliquid whale alerts and position data, with 15-minute interval history available [1][3][4][5][6]. ChainVector specializes in streaming a real-time bot decision snapshot, which includes whale pressure and cascade risk, alongside trade, ticker, and liquidation feeds that are queryable within a few hundred milliseconds [7].
Several other platforms also deliver valuable real-time market data. Beyond these core providers, other platforms offer relevant real-time data for market monitoring. Blockmetric provides a BTC liquidation heatmap with 15-minute granularity and whale-movement feeds updated every few minutes [8]. CoinLobster's API delivers every executed whale trade without delay from 18 exchanges, 3 chains, and Hyperliquid, featuring a whale radar that refreshes approximately every 30 seconds [9]. ByKaranteli records liquidations across multiple venues in real time [10]. Similarly, CryptoQuant provides per-exchange liquidations and real-time alerts on whale transactions and fund movements, which is suitable for 15-minute analysis windows [11][12].
Specialized tools offer granular Hyperliquid and on-chain whale tracking. For more specialized tracking, particularly concerning Hyperliquid and on-chain activity, specific tools are available. Buildix reads tracked whale liquidation prices directly from the chain, with associated wallets refreshed every 10 minutes [13]. XOOMAR offers live liquidation data updated every minute from OKX, Gate.io, and HTX, in addition to tracking over 150 Hyperliquid whale positions that refresh every 5 minutes [2]. On-chain specific whale trackers such as Whale Alert and Nansen post large transfers within seconds or less than a minute; however, these tools primarily indicate transfers rather than providing clear buy or sell direction [14][15].
Sources (15)
  1. 1Crypto Data API: Futures, Spot, Options & ETF – Tick-by-Tick Market Data | CoinGlasscoinglass.com
  2. 2Market data | XOOMARxoomar.com
  3. 3CoinGlass API Review (2026): Is It Worth It for Crypto Quant Traders? - DEV Communitydev.arabicstore1.workers.dev
  4. 4CoinGlass API Review (2026): Is It Worth It for Crypto Quant Traders? - DEV Communitydev.to
  5. 5CoinGlass MCP Server by forgequant | Glamaglama.ai
  6. 6README.mdgithub.com
  7. 7ChainVector — Institutional Crypto Market Intelligence APIchainvector.com
  8. 8Crypto Liquidation Heatmap & Market Data · Blockmetricblockmetric.io
  9. 9Crypto Whale Data API: Live Trades & Flow | CoinLobstercoinlobster.com
  10. 10Free Crypto Derivatives Data: Liquidations, Funding Flowsbykaranteli.com
  11. 11CryptoQuant | On-chain data and market intelligencecryptoquant.com
  12. 12CryptoQuant Review 2026: On-Chain Analytics, Exchange Flows And Market Intelligencecryptoadventure.com
  13. 137 Best Hyperliquid Trading Tools in 2026 (Free Screener + Orderflow Analytics)buildix.trade
  14. 1410 Best Crypto Whale Trackers (2026) — 4 Free, All Testeddeepbluealpha.io
  15. 15Best Crypto Whale Tools in 2026, Ranked | CoinLobstercoinlobster.com

9. How might the on-chain behavior of short-term holders, whose cost basis is $75,600, impact Bitcoin's price stability around the $68,000 level?

STH Coins at Loss65% (at $68,000 price level) [1][2][3]
STH Realized Price$75,429 (as of Nov 13, 2026) [3]
Historical STH Cost Basis Reclaim11 of 14 instances within two weeks (since 2016) [4]
Short-term holders currently face significant losses, contributing to selling pressure. Approximately 65% of short-term holders (STHs) are currently underwater, holding their Bitcoin at a loss when the price is around $68,000, given their average cost basis of $75,600 [1][2][3]. The STH realized price, which stood at $75,429 as of November 13, 2026, translates to an average paper loss of about 10% for this cohort when Bitcoin was trading near $68,000 [3]. This financial position has led to notable selling pressure and a supply overhang, with STHs experiencing net realized losses for 12 consecutive days, amounting to approximately 172,700 BTC [1][2][4].
A key price zone presents strong resistance from underwater sellers. The $68,000-$69,000 price range is identified as a critical four-way confluence, significantly influenced by the STH realized price which hovers around $69,007 [5]. This zone acts as a pivotal point where underwater traders may opt to sell their holdings to break even, thus potentially restricting upward price movements [5]. Reinforcing this resistance is a substantial supply overhang, with 1.6 million BTC bought at $75,000-$80,000 remaining at a loss [4]. Historically, Bitcoin has reclaimed the STH cost basis within two weeks in 11 out of 14 instances since 2016, with the current two-week window for this recovery expiring on November 22, 2026, underscoring the importance of sustained price action around these critical levels [4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Why Did Bitcoin Fall Below Glassnode's Short-Term Holder Cost Basis as Stablecoin Supply Dropped by $14.2 Billion?| KuCoinkucoin.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Slips Below $75.6K as Stablecoins, ETFs and US Buyers Pull Back -chainaffairs.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Sit on 10% Loss as MVRV Z-Score Falls to 0.54, Nearing On-Chain Cost Basiscoinlive.com
  4. 4Bitcoin: Correction or Reset?  - Bitfinex blogblog.bitfinex.com
  5. 5🚨 BTC IS HEADING STRAIGHT INTO ITS BIGGEST RESISTANCE WALL | Doctor-Strange on Binance Squarebinance.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Bitcoin fell ~4% to the $68,000–$68,700 region on November 13, 2026, marking its lowest level since mid-August, down 17.7% in Q4 2026, and 11.2% month-to-date; it dipped to ~$67,500 intraday before rebounding [1][2][3]. Macroeconomic data contributed to this trend. October US PPI, released November 13 at 8:30 AM ET, came in at +0.3% MoM and +6.5% YoY, 0.1pp below expectations but the largest annual increase since November 2022 [2][4]. This tempered reaction pushed odds of a 25bp Fed hike in December from 85.4% to 89.7% [2][4]. This followed the October CPI release on November 10, which showed core CPI +0.3% MoM, exceeding the 0.2% forecast [5]. Broader cross-asset signals also remained bearish, with DXY rising to 103.34, VIX surging 9.57% to 20.49, the Nasdaq 100 falling 1.99% to 27,726, and USD/JPY climbing to 159.90 [1][6].
Technical indicators suggest further downside risk. Rekt Capital noted that a weekly close below $73,000 would mark Bitcoin's third break of that support in 2026, with prior breaks preceding drops to ~$60,000 [1]. 21Shares identifies $69,000 as the near-term pivot, stating that a sustained break opens a test of $65,000, while FXStreet's base-case risk involves a retest of $60,000 or the recent low near $58,000 [1][2][7]. Liquidations totaled $1.64 billion across crypto over 24 hours, with 88.7% comprising long positions, including $916M in BTC and $289M in ETH [6][5]. US spot BTC ETFs saw $47.7M net outflows on Thursday, marking a sixth consecutive day for a total of ~$1.44–$1.49B in outflows from November 5–12 [6][5]. Additional pressure factors include Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's Thursday resignation, Anthropic's upcoming IPO absorbing risk appetite, and rising short open interest [3].
Despite these bearish signals, a short-squeeze rally toward $70,000 is plausible, supported by funding turning negative and leverage being flushed [1][7][4]. However, prediction market sentiment implies Bitcoin will remain in the high-$60Ks over the weekend, pricing BTC above $70,000 at 9% on November 14 at 4:59 PM UTC, and 18% on November 15 [8]. Key upcoming dates include the SEC 13-F filing deadline on November 16, the Q3 GDP second estimate on November 25, and the December 8–9 FOMC meeting with a dot plot release [4][9][10].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 13, 2026
  • Expiration: November 20, 2026
  • Closes: November 13, 2026
Sources (10)
  1. 1Bitcoin at a crossroads: Weekend relief rally possible, but macro signals still point toward a retest of $60kfxstreet.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Stays 4% Lower as US PPI Inflation Cooldown Fails to Lift Stockscointelegraph.com
  3. 3Bitcoin plunges to $68,000 as Anthropic IPO frenzy adds to market jitterscoindesk.com
  4. 4Markets Today - November 13, 2026nexo.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Hits 12-Week Low as Fed Rate Fears Undo Most of Summer Rally - Decryptdecrypt.co
  6. 6Bitcoin falls below $70,000 as dollar surges and $1.6 billion liquidatedcoindesk.com
  7. 7Bitcoin slips to $68,500 as 21Shares strategist maps out key price testscryptobriefing.com
  8. 8Prediction Markets - Decryptdecrypt.co
  9. 9U.S. inflation, corporate earnings: Crypto Week Aheadcoindesk.com
  10. 10Bitcoin week ahead: US CPI 10 Nov, $2.5B options expirycryptowatchdesk.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTC15M-26NOV131830-30: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV131815-15: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV131800-00: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV131745-45: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV131730-30: YES (Nov 13, 2026)