Short Answer

Bitcoin is not expected to reach the $68,087.07 target between 6:45PM EST and 7:00PM EST on November 13; the market prices this outcome at 40.0%, diverging from the model's 51.9%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Target Price: $68,087.07 appears favored by crowded derivatives shorts positioning.
  • Macroeconomic headwinds, including 10-year yields, likely constrained upward Bitcoin movement.

Current Context

Bitcoin traded below $70,000, facing selling pressure on November 13. The 6:45–7:00 PM EST Robinhood 15-minute BTC contract targeted $68,087.07, resolving based on the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' BRTI [1]. Adjacent prediction markets for 6:00–6:15 PM EST at $68,266.81, trading at approximately 6.6¢ Yes, suggested BTC was priced near $68,200–$68,500 in the late evening [1]. Bitcoin reached a 12-week low of $67,555 at 05:56 UTC on Coinbase [2]. It bounced to $70,142 after the 13:30 UTC PPI release, where October PPI increased +0.3% month-over-month against a 0.4% expectation and +6.5% year-over-year [2]. This bounce reversed within approximately 46 minutes. BTC traded at $68,971 at 17:51 UTC; BRTI showed $68,059.79, a 4.66% decline, at 18:03 UTC [2]. The day's trading range for BRTI was $67,655.98–$71,446.92 [3]. Polymarket's event resolved Yes for Bitcoin above $66,000 and $68,000, and No for strikes above $70,000, confirming BTC closed the day in the $68,000–$70,000 range [4]. At $68,644, BTC was down 4.21% on the day, 7.4% on the week, and 14.99% on the month [5].
Technical levels and macro factors exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin. Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan noted BTC's first test of the 200-week SMA, approximately $67,993–$68,013, in 11 weeks [6]. Losing 41.5 on the weekly RSI could open a test of the $57,700 cycle low [6]. 21shares strategist Matt Mena identified support around $69,000, stating that reclaiming $70K then $74K is needed for a sustained recovery toward $87K–$90K, while a break below $69K exposes $65K [7]. TradingNews maintained a bearish outlook below $70,000. A relief target of $75,200 (50-week SMA $75,157) exists if the 200-week line at $68,013 holds weekly. A daily close below $67,500 could open $65,000, then $62,700 (August low), then $58,500 (June low) [5]. Macroeconomic headwinds included the 10-year yield above 5% and the dollar index near a 19-month high [5]. Fed rate hike odds were approximately 65% for January, 50% for March, and 11% for a 50 basis point hike in December [5]. Spot BTC ETFs recorded $284 million in outflows on November 12, marking a sixth consecutive day of outflows totaling approximately $1.72 billion, led by IBIT's $204 million [5]. Crypto liquidations reached $1.64 billion in 24 hours, with longs taking 88.7% of the losses [5]. Negative funding and options skewed to puts may enable sharp rebounds [5].
The Bitcoin dip was attributed to broad market de-risking. Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca cited the Anthropic IPO, which saw subscription books receive six times more orders than shares available, as a factor pulling capital from liquid markets [8]. Risk Dimensions' Mark Connors and Hyperium's Chris Sullivan dismissed a direct Nvidia-to-BTC link, pointing instead to wholesale de-risking, short open interest above the August peak, and a possible 50 basis point rate hike within 30 days [8]. Asian stocks and Nasdaq-100 futures fell following Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's resignation [6]. Despite these pressures, Q4 seasonality has historically averaged 61%+ returns. A late-August surge from $62,000 to $78,000 in three days demonstrates Bitcoin's potential for rapid upside [7]. Upcoming dates include Nvidia earnings on Tuesday, November 17, 2026. Options expiries on November 27 and December 25 have max pain points at $79,000 and $76,000, respectively [5]. MSCI will remove Strategy from its indexes at the end of November [5].
Sources (8)
  1. 1November 13, 2026: BTC 15 min · 6:00–6:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2Bitcoin price today: below $70,000 as the PPI bounce fades – Coindarocoindaro.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Real-Time Historical Data (BRTI) - Investing.cominvesting.com
  4. 4Bitcoin above ___ on November 13?polymarket.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Price Forecast — BTC-USD ($68,644) $75,200 Upside Target on $1.64B Liquidation Flush and 200-Week MA Testtradingnews.com
  6. 6Bitcoin Faces Battle for Key Long-Term Trend Line at $68,000cointelegraph.com
  7. 7Bitcoin Could Rebound to $90K but Risks $65K Retest: 21shares Strategistnews.bitcoin.com
  8. 8Bitcoin plunges to $68,000 as Anthropic IPO frenzy adds to market jitterscoindesk.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "YES" if the official final value of BTC at 7:00 PM ET on November 13 is greater than $68,087.07; otherwise, it resolves to "NO." The resolution point is 7:00 PM ET on November 13. The official final value is determined by averaging 60 prices from CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) collected during the last minute before expiration.

Market Discussion

A prediction market with a $68,070.53 target (close to the queried $68,087.07) resolved YES on November 13, 2026, at 6:15 AM UTC, reflecting significant trading volume and a late surge in "YES" contracts [1]. However, technical analysis (November 13, 2026) identifies the $68K–$69K range as a strong resistance confluence, with the volume Point of Control and 0.786 Fibonacci level aligning near $68,083, prompting warnings of a potential bull trap [2]. While a bullish scenario targets higher levels upon reclaiming $68,600, a strong 15-minute close below $67,950 could invalidate it [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1BTC 15 min · $68,070.53 target: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
  2. 2🚨 BTC IS HEADING STRAIGHT INTO ITS BIGGEST RESISTANCE WALL | Doctor-Strange on Binance Squarebinance.com
  3. 3BTC/USD 15-Minute Chart Analysis – Support Zone Bounce & Bullish for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by ZS_PERFECT_TRADER — TradingViewtradingview.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 79 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score59Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 5% of the price to slippage.

Trust score79Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
84Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $68,087.07—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $68,087.07—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $68,087.0795
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
59Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (~1% of a 40.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (~1% of a 40.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 2.1c slippage (~5% of a 40.5c contract)

Target Price: $68,087.07Primary–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 13, 2026

5. What key technical levels, particularly the 200-week SMA, are traders watching as potential triggers for cascading liquidations during the Nov. 13 evening session?

Bitcoin 200-week SMA (Nov 13, 2026)$67,993–$68,013 [1][2]
Largest BTC long liquidation cluster$36.19 million at $66,596–$66,766 [3]
Total 24-hour crypto liquidations$1.64 billion [2][4]
Traders closely monitored Bitcoin's 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) as a key trigger. This crucial technical benchmark was situated between $67,993 and $68,013 on November 13, 2026, for the evening session [1][2]. Prediction markets for the 6:45–7:00 PM EST window were priced close to this 200-week SMA, while a Robinhood market indicated an expectation that Bitcoin would remain below this significant level for the 6:00–6:15 PM EST period [5][6].
Below the SMA, significant long liquidation clusters were identified as potential triggers for cascading liquidations. The largest estimated Bitcoin long-liquidation cluster for November 13, 2026, was found at $66,596–$66,766, potentially liquidating approximately $36.19 million [3]. Additional clusters were observed at $65,914–$66,085, involving $29.84 million, and at $64,722–$64,892, amounting to $13.49 million. Projections suggested that a 5% price drop could initiate around $149.23 million in long liquidations [3]. Should Bitcoin fail to maintain the 200-week SMA, deeper support levels, including the August swing low at $62,700 and the June low at $58,500, could be tested. Furthermore, a decline below a weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 41.5 might open the path to test the $57,700 cycle low [1][2][7].
Recent market movements led to substantial crypto liquidations, providing context for the current vigilance. This includes an overnight cascade where Bitcoin fell below $70,000 late Thursday, resulting in an estimated $500 million in leveraged long liquidations at that specific price point [2]. This event contributed to a total of $1.64 billion in crypto liquidations across a 24-hour period [2][4].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Bitcoin Faces Battle for Key Long-Term Trend Line at $68,000cointelegraph.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Price Forecast — BTC-USD ($68,644) $75,200 Upside Target on $1.64B Liquidation Flush and 200-Week MA Testtradingnews.com
  3. 3BTC Liquidation Heatmap & Levels Today | AlertaChartalertachart.com
  4. 4Bitcoin (BTC) Prints 'End of the World' Candle: $1.6 Billion Liquidation Triggers Drop — TradingView Newstradingview.com
  5. 5BTC 15 min · $68,070.53 target: Kalshi oddspredictionsmarket.com
  6. 6November 13, 2026: BTC 15 min · 6:00–6:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  7. 7Bitcoin returns to 200-week trend line as analyst sees risk of $57.7K next — TradingView Newstradingview.com

6. What does derivatives data, such as funding rates and options skew, indicate about market positioning and the potential for a short squeeze on Nov. 13?

Bitcoin Perpetual Funding (OKX, Nov 13, 2026)-0.0064% at 9 a.m. CET settlement [1][2]
Deribit Nov 27 Put Skew10.8-point put skew [1]
Bitcoin Long Liquidations (Binance, 24 hours)$199 million vs $16.4 million in short liquidations [2]
Bitcoin derivatives on November 13 indicated crowded shorts and downside demand. On this date, Bitcoin perpetual funding on OKX registered -0.0064% at the 9 a.m. CET settlement, turning negative for the first time in a month and signaling significant short interest following the price decline below $70,000 [1][2]. The combination of negative funding, crowded shorts, and a heavy put skew meant that acquiring downside protection was expensive [1][2]. This market posture suggested that any potential short squeeze would likely be a brief technical event driven by short-covering, rather than a sustained price rally [1][2].
Options market positioning reinforced a downside bias on November 13. Deribit's November 27 expiry showed a notable 10.8-point put skew, with the $62,000 put implied volatility at 46.3% compared to 35.5% for the equivalent $76,000 call [1]. Total Bitcoin options open interest decreased by 12.15% to $29 billion on November 13, and puts accounted for 53.76% of the 24-hour turnover [3]. Furthermore, liquidations were heavily long-skewed, with $916 million in Bitcoin futures liquidated in 24 hours, including $199 million in long liquidations on Binance versus only $16.4 million in short liquidations [2].
Analysts indicated technical recoveries and specific price thresholds for Bitcoin. They observed that recoveries would likely remain technical as long as Bitcoin stayed below approximately $73,040 [4][2]. A break below $67,500, analysts noted, could potentially open the path to the $62,200 range [4][2]. For the specific target level of $68,087.07, the market setup suggested a coin-flip-to-slightly-below bias, a sentiment that was corroborated by cross-checks from prediction markets [1][2][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Bitcoin price prediction: funding negative, puts in demandcryptoticker.io
  2. 2Bitcoin Today, Nov 13, 2026: Daily Brief and Outlookcoinlab.info
  3. 3[Bitcoin options daily] Open interest falls to $29 billion; $68,000 puts lead volume | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  4. 4Bitcoin 'ripe for a squeeze' as options traders raise odds of sub-$70,000 Christmastheblock.co
  5. 5BTC price range on Nov 13, 2026 at 7pm EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com

7. How does the influence of macro-economic headwinds, like Nvidia sentiment and the 10-year yield, compare to crypto-native pressures like spot ETF outflows on Bitcoin's price?

YTD ETF Net Outflows (2026)$1.56B [1][2][3]
24-hour Liquidations$1.47–1.64B [4][1][3][5]
Bitcoin Price (late afternoon Nov 13)~$68,141–68,500 [6][7][1][8]
Macroeconomic factors primarily drove Bitcoin's price decline on November 13, 2026. Bitcoin's valuation was heavily influenced by rising 10-year Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, alongside broader AI-trade deleveraging following Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's exit [9][4][1][6][7][8]. This macro pressure increased the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, which offers no yield, thereby shifting investor preference towards more attractive government bonds [7]. An intraday cooler PPI print did trigger a brief reflexive bounce, demonstrating macro data's immediate impact, though this rebound lacked sustained momentum due to persistent yield pressure and ongoing ETF outflows [10].
Significant crypto-native pressures amplified liquidity stress, impacting Bitcoin's valuation. These internal market pressures compounded the external macro triggers, leading to substantial spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and widespread liquidations [4][1][3][5][7]. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded six consecutive days of net outflows, totaling approximately $1.44 billion through November 12, contributing to $1.56 billion in net outflows for the year 2026 [1][2][3][11][12][13]. Further evidence of liquidity stress included $1.47–1.64 billion in 24-hour liquidations, a 17% decline in Bitcoin open interest in under a month, and a $14.2 billion drop in stablecoin supply over 30 days [4][1][3][5]. These ETF outflows represent direct forced selling, draining liquidity and potentially triggering stop-loss cascades towards the $63,000–66,000 range [3][13].
Bitcoin traded around $68,000, facing further downside without improved conditions. By late afternoon on November 13 (18:37–18:39 UTC), Bitcoin was trading at approximately $68,141–68,500, with analysts anticipating a retest of $60,000 if macro conditions did not improve [6][7][1][8]. Macro factors such as yields, the dollar, and hike pricing remained dominant in market sentiment, although the pace of ETF outflows had eased somewhat [6][7][1][12][8]. A sustainable recovery for Bitcoin would require three consecutive days of ETF inflows and a reclaim of the 21-week average price of $73,078 [3][10].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Bitcoin falls below $70,000 as dollar surges and $1.6 billion liquidatedcoindesk.com
  2. 2Bitcoin ETFs are now down over $1.5 billion in net outflows for the yearcoindesk.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Faces $63K–$66K Risk as ETF Outflows Drain Liquidity | Investing.cominvesting.com
  4. 4Bitcoin tumbles below $69,000 as Nvidia turmoil adds to Fed-driven market jitterstheblock.co
  5. 5Bitcoin BTC USD crash today reason explained: Why Bitcoin price today crashed to $68,000? ETF outflows, weak buying demand and $856 million in liquidations fuel selloff - can BTC USD rebound to $90,000? - The Economic Timeseconomictimes.indiatimes.com
  6. 6Bitcoin plunges to $68,000 as Anthropic IPO frenzy adds to market jitterscoindesk.com
  7. 7‘People are chucking stuff like gold and Bitcoin’ as rising inflation leads investors to seek yield | Fortunefortune.com
  8. 8Bitcoin at a crossroads: Weekend relief rally possible, but macro signals still point toward a retest of $60kfxstreet.com
  9. 9Market Quick Take - Nvidia earnings up next Tuesday - 13 November 2026 | Saxohome.saxo
  10. 10Bitcoin Price Jumps Off Important Fib Level as US PPI Slowscoindoo.com
  11. 11Bitcoin falls below $70,000 on Fed bets, ETF outflowsinvestin.news
  12. 12Bitcoin crashes below $70,000, hits lowest since August as institutional selling deepens crypto rout - The Economic Timesm.economictimes.com
  13. 13Three walks of Fed Price and ETF Outflows: No buyers lef...expertfxschool.com

8. What does order book data from major exchanges like Coinbase and Binance reveal about liquidity concentrations around the $68,000 price level?

Largest Bid Concentration Range$68,000 and $72,500 (Binance, Coinbase) [1]
Largest Bid Bucket Below Mid$10.8M at $67,969 (across 21 venues) [2]
Key Technical Level Flagged$68,000 (200-week EMA resistance/support) [3]
Order book data from major exchanges indicates strong liquidity around $68,000. Data from major exchanges like Coinbase and Binance reveals significant bid concentrations, particularly around the $68,000 price level. Since November 5, 2026, resting bids on these platforms within 5% of the price have consistently outweighed asks, with the largest concentration reported between $68,000 and $72,500 [1]. As of November 13, 2026, the largest bid bucket across 21 venues below the $69,039 BTC mid was $10.8 million at $67,969, including substantial amounts on Binance and Coinbase [2]. Further data from Fuelmaps showed a combined $13.3 million in bids at $68,150 and $68,000, contributing to a total of $57.8 million in bids versus $30.5 million in asks within 1% [4]. Liqwall data also indicated $378 million of buy orders within 2% below the price, with significant levels such as $26.6 million at $68,150 and $68,000 [5].
Analysts have highlighted $68,000 as a critical 200-week EMA resistance/support pivot. This level is noteworthy as Bitcoin had previously bounced above it to $68,418 [3][6]. Prediction markets for the 6:00–6:15 PM EST period suggested an expectation for BTC to remain below levels like $68,266.81, which aligns with the $68,087.07 target located near the top of the dense bid wall zone [7]. Additionally, a Hypredict 15m market at 6:45 PM UTC indicated a higher probability of BTC being below approximately $68,900 at that specific hour [8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Bitcoin futures face thinning cash and weaker bond demandcryptoslate.com
  2. 2Spot Order Book Heatmap: Where the Bids and Asks Sitbykaranteli.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Rises Above $68,000 as Crypto Liquidations Reach $1.31 Billion in One Hour - Wu Blockchainwublockchain.xyz
  4. 4BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE and AVAX spot order book heatmap across six exchangesfuelmaps.io
  5. 5Bitcoin Order Book Heatmap — Live BTC Liquidity Map | Liqwallliqwall.com
  6. 6Bitcoin Eyes $80K as Traders Expect A Short-term BTC Price Rebound.bitcoinethereumnews.com
  7. 7November 13, 2026: BTC 15 min · 6:00–6:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  8. 8Bitcoin up or down 15m: price prediction | Hypredicthypredict.app

9. What historical precedent exists for Bitcoin's price behavior after testing its 200-week SMA during prior market corrections?

Median gain one year after 200-week SMA close123% (52 instances, 2015, 2020, 2022-23) [1]
Average gain buying 200-week SMA close+284% (vs +313% for random day) [2]
Average consolidation duration after 200-week MA (pre-2022)110 days [3][4]
Bitcoin historically shows strong gains one year after closing below its 200-week SMA. Across 52 instances from 2015, 2020, and 2022–23, Bitcoin's price tends to be higher one year after weekly closes below its 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), showing a median gain of 123% [1]. While buying at or below this line averaged a 284% gain over the subsequent year, this was not a superior entry point compared to buying on any random day, which yielded 313% [2]. The 200-week SMA has often marked near-bottoms, with the lowest close in the following year typically only 3–23% lower [2]. Historically, pre-2022 consolidation durations after touching the 200-week MA averaged about 110 days [3][4].
Recent tests of the 200-week SMA show varying recovery patterns. The 2022 episode was an exception, where Bitcoin fell an additional 23% after first closing below the 200-week SMA in June 2022 and remained below for roughly 30 consecutive weeks [1][5]. This period was characterized as a choppy 'crypto winter' rather than a swift recovery [4]. In contrast, a more recent test in summer 2026 saw Bitcoin close below the 200-week SMA three times but quickly reclaimed the line within two weeks each time, achieving a 46% gain from the low by September 2026 [5][6]. An intraday dip in August 2026 also demonstrated a rapid rebound, gaining 23% for the week and reclaiming multiple moving averages [7][8].
Bitcoin is currently testing its 200-week SMA, facing critical price levels. During the current test on November 13, 2026, Bitcoin hit an intraday low of $67,500–$67,652, very close to the 200-week SMA, which was approximately $67,750–$68,000 [9][6][10][11]. Analysts indicate that a Sunday weekly close above ~$68,000 is necessary to maintain a bullish long-term trend [6][5][12]. Conversely, a break below this level could target $63,000–$66,000 [6][5][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Bitcoin's 200-Week Moving Average: Is It Really the Bottom?tradewize.io
  2. 2Is the 200-week moving average Bitcoin's bottom? · CoinSkepticcoinskeptic.com
  3. 3Bitcoin (BTC) Reaches Historic Support at 200W MAbeincrypto.com
  4. 4Bitcoin at the 200-Week MA Hints at a Long Winter | Investing.cominvesting.com
  5. 5What Bitcoin Did Every Time It Fell to Its 200-Week Average - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
  6. 6Bitcoin Price Falls to 200-Week Average as US Demand Fades | CoinMarketCapcoinmarketcap.com
  7. 72026-08-22 Daily Crypto Review: Bitcoin Rallies 4.14... | TrendXBit | TrendXBittrendxbit.com
  8. 8Bitcoin posts strongest weekly gain since November 2024 as market activity surges — K33fxstreet.com
  9. 9Live updates: Bitcoin eyes bear market lows as late summer rally mostly wiped outcoindesk.com
  10. 10Bitcoin price slides to the 200-week moving averagecryptoticker.io
  11. 11Bitcoin market outlook: extreme fear, oversold signals, and key support levels By Investing.cominvesting.com
  12. 12Bitcoin Faces Battle for Key Long-Term Trend Line at $68,000cointelegraph.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Upcoming macroeconomic events are key drivers. PCE inflation is due in late November, with the December 9 FOMC decision and updated dot plot also on the horizon [1][2]. Fed speakers Collins and Logan provided commentary on November 13 [2]. Earlier, the November 13, 2026 PPI release (0.3% MoM vs 0.4% expected, 6.5% YoY) triggered a brief BTC bounce, though this was quickly reversed [3][4]. CME FedWatch indicates an 88% probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike and 12% for a 50bp hike at the December 9, 2026 FOMC meeting, following three consecutive above-consensus CPI readings [5].
Market-specific dynamics also present key drivers. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a sixth straight day of outflows, totaling $284M on November 12 according to SoSoValue, contributing to approximately $643M in net outflows for the week through Thursday and $1.28B the prior week [3][2][6]. IBIT outflows reached roughly $2B [6]. Total crypto liquidations surged 513.7% to $1.64B over 24 hours on November 13, with longs accounting for 88.6% [5]. MSCI's deletion of Strategy (MSTR) after November 30 will add index selling pressure [2].
Technical levels and sentiment inform potential price action. The 200-week SMA support at $67,925–$68,013 held on its first test, pushing the price back to $69,800 [7]. Resistance is at $70,000, then $72,000–$73,000, with a main upside target at $75,200 [7][6][8][9]. A break below $67,500 opens $65,000 and the $63K–$66K range [7][6]. Options positioning shows max pain for the November 27, 2026 expiry at $79,000 and December 25 at $76,000, with significant open interest in $80K and $100K December calls [7][5]. Sentiment remains at extreme fear, with the crypto fear gauge at 20, and the daily RSI oversold at 25.6 [6][7]. Nvidia earnings are scheduled for Tuesday, November 17 [1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 14, 2026
  • Expiration: November 21, 2026
  • Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1Market Quick Take - Nvidia earnings up next Tuesday - 13 November 2026 | Saxohome.saxo
  2. 2Markets Today - November 13, 2026nexo.com
  3. 3Bitcoin price today: below $70,000 as the PPI bounce fades – Coindarocoindaro.com
  4. 4Crypto market sees brief relief after cooler US PPI datacrypto.news
  5. 5Bitcoin falls below $70,000 as dollar surges and $1.6 billion liquidatedcoindesk.com
  6. 6Bitcoin market outlook: extreme fear, oversold signals, and key support levels By Investing.cominvesting.com
  7. 7Bitcoin Price Forecast — BTC-USD ($68,644) $75,200 Upside Target on $1.64B Liquidation Flush and 200-Week MA Testtradingnews.com
  8. 8FX.co - Trading Signals for BTC/USD on November 13-16, 2026: buy above $68,750 (21 SMA - 2/8 Murray)fx.co
  9. 9BTCUSD: Bitcoin Sinks to $67,500, Breaks Rising Channel as Liquidations Surge — TradingView Newstradingview.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTC15M-26NOV131845-45: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV131830-30: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV131815-15: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV131800-00: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26NOV131745-45: YES (Nov 13, 2026)