BTC 15 min · $68,266.81 target
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Bitcoin declined below $68,266.81 after PPI data, triggering $1.6B long liquidations.
- Bearish pressure from spot ETF outflows and rising December rate hike odds continued.
Current Context
Sources (14)
- 1November 13, 2026: BTC 15 min · 5:30–5:45 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 2November 13, 2026: BTC 15 min · 5:15–5:30 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 3Bitcoin Real-Time Historical Data (BRTI) - Investing.com AUau.investing.com
- 4Bitcoin Real-Time Chart (BRTI) - Investing.cominvesting.com
- 5Bitcoin Could Rebound to $90K but Risks $65K Retest: 21shares Strategistnews.bitcoin.com
- 6Bitcoin plunges to $68,000 as Anthropic IPO frenzy adds to market jitterscoindesk.com
- 7Bitcoin falls below $70,000 as dollar surges and $1.6 billion liquidatedcoindesk.com
- 8Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC drops below $68,000 as oversold signal fails to stop sellersfxstreet.com
- 9BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP and SOL: What Traders Should Watch in Q4 2026cryptonews.net
- 10Bitcoin slips to $68,500 as 21Shares strategist maps out key price testscryptobriefing.com
- 11Bitcoin Faces Battle for Key Long-Term Trend Line at $68,000cointelegraph.com
- 12Bitcoin Faces $63K–$66K Risk as ETF Outflows Drain Liquidity | Investing.cominvesting.com
- 13‘People are chucking stuff like gold and Bitcoin’ as rising inflation leads investors to seek yield | Fortunefortune.com
- 14Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Nov 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? · Kalshi odds | Paritypredictparity.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to YES if the official and final BTC price is $68,266.81 or higher, and to NO if it is below this target. The market expires on November 13, with the final value determined at 6:15 PM EST/ET. This final value is calculated as the average of 60 CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected during the last minute before expiration.
Market Discussion
The $68,266.81 target is part of a series of highly active 15-minute Bitcoin prediction markets on November 13, 2026, with similar targets on Robinhood, Public.com, and Kalshi seeing significant trading volume and high "Yes" probabilities [1]. On November 13, 2026, Bitcoin broke below $70,000 at 02:52 UTC, hit a 12-week low of $67,555 at 05:56 UTC, and later traded around $68,348–$68,971, below its ~$68,000 200-week moving average [2]. Amidst heavy liquidations of long positions, some analysts on November 13, 2026, expected a bounce to $72,000–$74,000, while others warned of potential flash crashes below the ~$68,000 level and advised caution [2].
4. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
5. How did the market's reaction to the November 13 PPI data release influence BTC's intraday volatility and its trajectory toward the $68,266.81 target?
| BTC Pre-release Price | $69,244–$69,246 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| BTC Peak Price Post-release | $70,141.87 [1][2] |
| Crypto Liquidations (1 hour) | $41.14 million [3][4][5] |
Sources (12)
- 1Bitcoin Briefly Reclaims $70,000 After Softer US PPIcoinscreamer.com
- 2Bitcoin Tops $70,000 After US PPI, Then Gives Upjrkripto.com
- 3Crypto market sees brief relief after cooler US PPI datacrypto.news
- 4Cooler US PPI Catches a $52 Million Bitcoin Bear Off Guardfinance.yahoo.com
- 5About $39.06 million in crypto shorts liquidated within an hour following US PPI releasetechflowpost.com
- 6Bitcoin Price Jumps Off Important Fib Level as US PPI Slowscoindoo.com
- 7Bitcoin climbs above $70K and gold rises after cooler PPI report — TradingView Newstradingview.com
- 8PPI at 0.35% Prompts Modest Bitcoin Dip After Initial Lift | Clometrixclometrix.com
- 9Bitcoin Price Chart Day By Day | StatMuse Moneystatmuse.com
- 10Bitcoin Returns in 2026 by Month and Day | Maketomaketo.com
- 11Closing Price Bitcoin Yesterday | StatMuse Moneystatmuse.com
- 12Bitcoin Rises Above $68,000 as Crypto Liquidations Reach $1.31 Billion in One Hour - Wu Blockchainwublockchain.xyz
6. What did the derivatives market—specifically funding rates and the $1.6B in liquidations on Nov 13—reveal about leveraged trader positioning?
| Total Crypto Liquidations (24h) | $1.64-1.65 billion on November 13, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Share of Liquidations from Long Positions | 88.6-89% [1][2][3][4] |
| Largest Single Liquidation | $31.09-31.1 million BTC long [1][2][3][4] |
Sources (9)
- 1Bitcoin falls below $70,000 as dollar surges and $1.6 billion liquidatedcoindesk.com
- 2Bitcoin slides toward $67,568 as $1.64 billion liquidation wave hits traders on a scary Fridayfxstreet.com
- 3Bitcoin Breaks Below $70,000 as Liquidations Sweep Through Leveraged Longsunchainedcrypto.com
- 4Bitcoin Plunges Below $69,000 as $1.6B Crypto Liquidation Wave Hitsethnews.com
- 5BTC: Shorts in Control, PPI the Wildcard for BITGET:BTCUSDT.P by Arnoru — TradingViewtradingview.com
- 6Bitcoin tumbles below $69,000 as Nvidia turmoil adds to Fed-driven market jitterstheblock.co
- 7BTCUSD Bitcoin / US Dollar BTC USD Dados Forex Históricos | Myfxbookmyfxbook.com
- 8BTC Open Interest $33.13B, Funding Rate, Liquidations | TradRadartradradar.io
- 9Crypto Funding and Volume — 13 November 2026perpdesk.net
7. How did the short-term downside targets from FxPro ($63-66k) contrast with the support levels cited by 21Shares' Matt Mena (near $69k) on November 13?
| FxPro downside target | $63 66K region (November 13, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| 21Shares strategist support level | Near $69,000, retesting $70,000 (November 13, 2026) [2] |
| Bitcoin price | Approximately $68,226 (November 13, 2026) [3] |
8. How did the bearish pressure from six straight days of spot ETF outflows compare with the technical support identified at the 200-week SMA near $68,000?
| US Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows | ~$1.44B over six days (Nov 5–12, 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin 200-week SMA Test | ~$67,990–$68,000 on Nov 13, 2026 [3][4][5] |
| Prediction Market Target | $68,266.81 for 6:00–6:15 PM EST [1][6][7] |
Sources (10)
- 1Bitcoin Today, Nov 13, 2026: Daily Brief and Outlookcoinlab.info
- 2Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Below $68K, Is $65K Next?coinpaper.com
- 3Bitcoin Price Falls to 200-Week Average as US Demand Fades | CoinMarketCapcoinmarketcap.com
- 4Bitcoin Faces Battle for Key Long-Term Trend Line at $68,000cointelegraph.com
- 5BTC: Shorts in Control, PPI the Wildcard for BITGET:BTCUSDT.P by Arnoru — TradingViewtradingview.com
- 6November 13, 2026: BTC 15 min · 5:30–5:45 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 7Bitcoin (BTC) Price History & Download Bitcoin Historical Data in CSV For Free | Bitgetbitget.com
- 8Bitcoin Faces $63K–$66K Risk as ETF Outflows Drain Liquidity | Investing.cominvesting.com
- 9Three walks of Fed Price and ETF Outflows: No buyers lef...expertfxschool.com
- 10Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC drops below $68,000 as oversold signal fails to stop sellersfxstreet.com
9. To what extent did rising CME FedWatch odds for a December 2026 rate hike contribute to the risk-off sentiment affecting Bitcoin on November 13?
| Bitcoin 12-week low (November 13) | $67,428.69 [1] |
|---|---|
| CME FedWatch 25bp hike odds after CPI | 96.3% (from 76.3%) [2] |
| Total 24-hour crypto liquidations | $1.64B [3] |
Sources (5)
- 1BTCUSD Bitcoin / US Dollar BTC USD Dados Forex Históricos | Myfxbookmyfxbook.com
- 2Federal Reserve Bitcoin Price Impact: Why BTC Hit $72Kvoxtradepro.com
- 3Bitcoin falls below $70,000 as dollar surges and $1.6 billion liquidatedcoindesk.com
- 4Bitcoin Stays 4% Lower as US PPI Inflation Cooldown Fails to Lift Stockscointelegraph.com
- 5Bitcoin tumbles below $69,000 as Nvidia turmoil adds to Fed-driven market jitterstheblock.co
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 13, 2026
- Expiration: November 20, 2026
- Closes: November 13, 2026
Sources (10)
- 1Bitcoin falls below $70,000 as dollar surges and $1.6 billion liquidatedcoindesk.com
- 2Live updates: Bitcoin eyes bear market lows as late summer rally mostly wiped outcoindesk.com
- 3Bitcoin Price Hits $70K on Soft PPI: Why Did BTC Rally Collapse?99bitcoins.com
- 4Bitcoin Price Jumps Off Important Fib Level as US PPI Slowscoindoo.com
- 5$BTC on the 15-minute timeframe is clearly showing | CipherX on Binance Squarebinance.com
- 6Bitcoin ETF Flows and the Fed Meeting: Signals to Watchroboforex.com
- 7Bitcoin Price Forecast — BTC-USD ($68,644) $75,200 Upside Target on $1.64B Liquidation Flush and 200-Week MA Testtradingnews.com
- 8Bitcoin market outlook: extreme fear, oversold signals, and key support levels By Investing.cominvesting.com
- 9Bitcoin slips to $68,500 as 21Shares strategist maps out key price testscryptobriefing.com
- 10Bitcoin week ahead: US CPI 10 Nov, $2.5B options expirycryptowatchdesk.com
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTC15M-26NOV131745-45: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
- KXBTC15M-26NOV131730-30: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
- KXBTC15M-26NOV131715-15: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
- KXBTC15M-26NOV131700-00: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
- KXBTC15M-26NOV131645-45: NO (Nov 13, 2026)