Short Answer

BTC is unlikely to reach $81,317.63 between 8:00PM and 8:15PM EDT on Oct 22, with the market pricing this outcome at 1.9%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • The $81,317.63 target aligns with Bitcoin trading in the $81,000–$81,600 range.
  • Broad risk-off trading likely drove Bitcoin to this range, following significant liquidations.
  • On-chain metrics indicated mildly bearish-to-neutral pressure near $81,300 for the week.

Current Context

Robinhood's BTC contract settlement relies on a specific benchmark. The queried instrument was described as Robinhood’s October 22 BTC 15-minute event for 8:00–8:15 PM EDT, with an $81,317.63 target [1][2]. These contracts resolve using CF Benchmarks BRTI, comparing the average of the final 60 seconds with the initial 60 seconds, rather than a generic exchange spot price [1][2]. Other 15-minute prediction markets, such as Polymarket, typically use a benchmark-specific TWAP, like the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP [3][4][5]. The available evidence does not establish the official Yes/No settlement for the specific $81,317.63 Robinhood contract. Contemporaneous daily BTC reference values for October 22 showed variations: Myfxbook recorded around $81,216.85, FreeCurrencyRates around $82,425.28. KalshiScan listed $81,300–$81,399.99 as an available range at 10 PM EDT but showed no meaningful trading activity [1][6][7][8].
BTC maintained a narrow trading range with defined technical thresholds. Near-term expert and market context on October 21 described BTC as range-bound, with Bitfinex anticipating movement between $81,300 and $84,400 ahead of the October 28 FOMC decision [9]. K33 reported 28-day realized volatility near a 2026 low of 1.2%, with expectations for volatility to increase around the Federal Reserve decision and November 3 U.S. midterms [10]. Key technical levels cited by analysts were $81,300 as support and a range boundary, $82,000 as a key downside level, and $84,400 as the upside breakout threshold [9][11]. A daily close below $81,300 was seen as increasing risk toward approximately $79,821, while sustained ETF demand could support a move above $84,400 [9][11].
Near-term events and rate risks divide Bitcoin's longer-term outlook. Important dates for BTC risk included the October 23 Deribit weekly options expiry, characterized as put-heavy with the largest single strike at $78,000, the October 28 Federal Reserve rate decision, and the November 3 U.S. midterm elections [9][10][12]. Analyst opinion was divided on the path toward $100,000, with rate and inflation risks limiting confidence [13]. One October outlook placed BTC in a broad $78,000–$95,000 range and identified $87,500 as the main breakout level, conditional on institutional demand overcoming selling pressure [11].
Sources (13)
  1. 1October 22, 2026: BTC 15 min · 8:00–8:15 PM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2October 22, 2026: BTC 15 min · 1:00–1:15 PM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  3. 3BTC Up or Down 15mpolymarket.com
  4. 4Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET | Predwisepredwise.fun
  5. 515 min Prediction Markets & Event Contracts - Public.compublic.com
  6. 6BTC price range on Oct 22, 2026 at 10pm EDT?kalshiscan.com
  7. 7Bitcoin（BTC）和 美元（USD）的2026年汇率历史记录. free currency rates (FCR)freecurrencyrates.com
  8. 8BTCUSD Bitcoin / US Dollar BTC USD Dados Forex Históricos | Myfxbookmyfxbook.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Eyes $84,400 as ETF Demand Returnsblog.bitfinex.com
  10. 10Bitcoin volatility nears 2026 lows as traders brace for Fed decision and US midtermstheblock.co
  11. 11Bitcoin’s October outlook hinges on $82K support, analysts saycrypto.news
  12. 12Bitcoin week ahead: Alpenglow 21 Oct, options expiry 23 Octcryptowatchdesk.com
  13. 13Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 splits analysts as rate risks loomcoindesk.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

  1. YES resolution: A "YES" resolution occurs if the average of 60 CF Benchmarks Real Time Index (RTI) prices, collected during the last minute before expiration, is $81,317.63 or higher.
  2. NO resolution: A "NO" resolution occurs if the average of these 60 RTI prices is below $81,317.63.
  3. Key dates/deadlines: The market expires on October 22 at 8:15 PM ET.
  4. Special settlement conditions: The official and final value used for settlement is the average of 60 CF Benchmarks Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected in the final minute leading up to the 8:15 PM ET expiration.

Market Discussion

The specific $81,317.63 target for a 15-minute BTC prediction market does not appear to have an authoritative contract or verified trader consensus [1][2][3], though the figure has been noted in market data as a BTC/WBTC price or high [4][5][6]. A Hyperliquid market snapshot showed BTC/USDC on a 15-minute interval at a mark of $81,338 with a high of $81,366 and low of $81,307 [1], and general market commentary considers the $81,300 area a key level, with mixed views on its significance as a potential breakout point or resistance [3][7].

Sources (7)
  1. 1HypurrScan Devdev.hypurrscan.io
  2. 2He made $19K by buying BTC at 99¢ in the last minute of...reddit.com
  3. 3#BTC Needs To Close Above $81,300 Area. If Not We Will See B | KuCoinkucoin.com
  4. 4JonnyBlockchain — Automated Crypto Spot & grid Trading botsboya.jonnyblockchain.com
  5. 5S Price Today: Live S to USD Price Chart & Market Datamexc.com
  6. 6Giá Canton Network hôm nay: Biểu đồ giá CC sang VND theo thời gian thực & dữ liệu thị trường tại Việt Nammexc.com
  7. 7Bitcoin’s failed $81,000 breakout just put $75,000 back on the tablecryptoslate.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 78 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score51Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score78Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
85Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
65Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

1 contract

Target Price: $81,317.6365
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Target Price: $81,317.63—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $81,317.6395
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
51Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 65 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 0.1c slippage (~5% of a 1.9c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.4c slippage (~21% of a 1.9c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Target Price: $81,317.63Primary65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 23, 2026

5. How might the October 28 FOMC decision and October 23 Deribit options expiry impact Bitcoin's price volatility in the days leading up to the contract's resolution?

Bitcoin 7-day realized volatilityNear 2026 lows [1][2][3][4][5]
October 23 options open interestApproximately $1.3B [4][5][6][7][8]
October 23 options max pain pointAround $82,000 [9][4][5][6][7]
Bitcoin's price volatility remains compressed awaiting market catalysts. Bitcoin's 7-day realized volatility is currently near 2026 lows, suggesting elevated tail risk without a strong directional edge, a state expected to persist until a significant catalyst emerges [2][1][3][4][5]. Subdued or range-bound trading is anticipated leading into the October 23 Deribit options expiry. This expiry has an open interest of approximately $1.3 billion and a put/call ratio near 1.02, though it is notably smaller than the upcoming October 30 monthly expiry. The max pain point for the October 23 expiry is around $82,000, which may induce temporary price pinning or hedging activity, but max pain serves primarily as a positioning reference rather than a reliable price forecast [4][5][9][6][7][8].
The upcoming FOMC decision poses the primary volatility risk. Following the short-dated options expiry, a volatility reset is expected as risk accumulates towards the larger October 30 expiry and the October 28 FOMC event. The Federal Open Market Committee's policy decision and press conference on October 28, after its October 27–28, 2026 meeting, presents the most significant volatility risk for Bitcoin. This risk is primarily driven by potential surprises in the official statement or the Chair's forward guidance, as a rate hold was broadly anticipated [9][10][2][3][11]. For the specific 15-minute prediction market, a move towards the $82,000 options concentration or a break below the technical support zone around $81,300–$82,500 could rapidly alter the outcome [2][3][4][5][7]. Furthermore, options hedging and leveraged futures liquidations have the potential to amplify price movements beyond these critical levels [2][3][7].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Bitcoin volatility nears 2026 lows as traders await Fed...cryptobriefing.com
  2. 2Bitcoin’s $82,500 Support Seen as Crucial Ahead of Oct. 28 FOMC Volatility Testen.bloomingbit.io
  3. 3How to Trade the Fed Decision: A Crypto Risk Playbook - MoviBox Cryptomoviboxapp.com
  4. 4Bitcoin Options: BTC Implied Volatility, Skew, Put/Call Ratio and Max Pain | OptimistFioptimistfi.com
  5. 5Bitcoin max pain today, every expiry · Swiftedgeswiftedge.uk
  6. 6Bitcoin Options on Deribit: BTC IV, Open Interest and Expiriesperpfinder.com
  7. 7Bitcoin week ahead: Alpenglow 21 Oct, options expiry 23 Octcryptowatchdesk.com
  8. 8BTC & ETH Options Max Pain — Live Dashboard | Liquid Stateliquidstate.tech
  9. 9Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: October 2026federalreserve.gov
  10. 10The Fed - Meeting calendars and informationfederalreserve.gov
  11. 11Fed Rate Cuts Off the Table for October: What It Means for Bitcoin and Goldcoinedition.com

6. What do on-chain metrics from Glassnode and CryptoQuant reveal about buying versus selling pressure around the key $81,300 support level for the week of October 20, 2026?

Key Support Level$81,300 [1][2][3]
Weekly Spot BTC ETF Outflows$228.6-$230 million [4][5][3]
Aggregate Exchange Reserves2.68 million BTC [2][6][7]
On-chain metrics indicated a mildly bearish-to-neutral pressure balance near $81,300. For the week of October 20, 2026, on-chain metrics from Glassnode and CryptoQuant pointed to a mildly bearish-to-neutral practical pressure balance around the key $81,300 support level [1][2][3]. Though profit-taking and derivatives selling had cooled, and bids refilled near $80,000, broad accumulation was not strong enough to counter prevailing negative trends [1][2][3]. The $81,300 area functioned as defended support, not a clean breakdown, as Bitcoin recovered above it following the October 8 sweep to $80,347 [1][3][8].
Several indicators pointed to weak demand and increasing sellable supply. Glassnode data for October 19-20 showed selling pressure easing but not reversing into strong buying, with spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) deteriorating to -$83.6 million [1][4][5]. Demand-side confirmation around the support was weak, as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs registered approximately $228.6 to $230 million of weekly outflows, which was deemed insufficient to drive recovery [3][4][5]. Furthermore, CryptoQuant-linked evidence revealed aggregate exchange reserves had modestly risen to about 2.68 million BTC, indicating a potential increase in immediately sellable supply [2][6][7]. A sustained break below $81,300 would have increased downside risk toward approximately $77,400 to $77,600 [1][2][3].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Swept and Refilledresearch.glassnode.com
  2. 2FX.co - Spot demand turns negative again, exchange reserves rise, and whales sellfx.co
  3. 3What Bitcoin Needs to Reclaim $84500blog.bitfinex.com
  4. 4Bitcoin holds above $80,000 as Glassnode flags weak spot demandfxstreet.com
  5. 5Why is Bitcoin price going down today, October 20?crypto.news
  6. 6Bitcoin Demand Analysis Keeps BTC Price ‘Uptober’ Hopes Alivect.com
  7. 7https://userguide.cryptoquant.com/api/btc-exchange-flowsuserguide.cryptoquant.com
  8. 8Has Bitcoin Bottomed? Analysts Say Yes Despite US Funds Selling | CoinMarketCapcoinmarketcap.com

7. How does the CF Benchmarks BRTI calculation historically differ from spot prices on Coinbase and Binance during short, 15-minute periods of high market volatility?

Coinbase BTC/USD Spot Price$81,259.08 (October 22, 2026 [1])
Binance BTC/USD Spot Price$81,270.87 (October 22, 2026 [1])
Wider Cross-Venue DislocationApproximately 0.10% ($81.62 difference) (October 22, 2026 [2])
CF Benchmarks BRTI offers a smoothed index distinct from individual exchange prices. This real-time composite index is calculated every second and is designed to be smoother and less venue-specific compared to individual spot prices on exchanges like Coinbase and Binance [3][4][5]. BRTI's methodology involves consolidating order books, capping individual orders at 100 BTC, constructing volume curves, and exponentially weighting mid-prices, utilizing depth within a 0.5% mid-price spread [3][4][5]. In contrast, Coinbase and Binance reflect distinct local liquidity, quote currencies, latency, order-book imbalances, and venue-specific dislocations [3][4][6][1][2][7]. It is important to note that Binance is not listed as a BRTI constituent [6].
During volatility, significant price disparities emerged between Coinbase and Binance. Snapshots taken during a market selloff on October 22, 2026, illustrated notable venue dispersion. For example, Coinbase BTC/USD was $81,259.08, while Binance BTC/USD was approximately $81,270.87, representing roughly an $11 difference [1][8]. Similarly, Binance BTC/USDT was $81,540.01, compared to Coinbase BTC/USDT at $81,547.10, a difference of about $7 [1][8]. A separate snapshot from the same day showed an even wider approximate 0.10% Coinbase discount, equating to an $81.62 difference [2]. These observed disparities support the design of BRTI as a composite of varying prices, contributing to its smoother nature compared to a single-venue quote [1][2][7].
Specific tick-level data on BRTI divergence for the defined period is unavailable. The provided information does not establish a precise BRTI-minus-Coinbase or BRTI-minus-Binance average for every second of the specific 15-minute interval from 20:00-20:15 EDT on October 22, 2026 [2][7]. While daily and intraday summaries for October 22, 2026, place BTC around the low-$81,000s, with BRTI closing at $81,311.84 and StatMuse reporting the 20:00 EDT hourly bar close at $81,279.07, the exact tick-level values required to definitively confirm if BRTI crossed $81,317.63 during that precise 15-minute window are not exposed in the cited public search results [7][9][10][11]. For a prediction market settling on BRTI, the relevant comparison remains the BRTI series itself [3][4][5][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1BTCUSD Order Books and Market Depth | ChartExchangechartexchange.com
  2. 2Coinbase Premium Alert — US Selling Pressure | Mirkasomirkaso.com
  3. 3CME CF Cryptocurrency Real Time Indicesdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  4. 4CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BTRI) Methodology Guidecmegroup.com
  5. 5CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Indexcfbenchmarks.com
  6. 6CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  7. 7Bitcoin Real-Time Historical Data (BRTI) - Investing.cominvesting.com
  8. 8BTCUSDT Order Books and Market Depth | ChartExchangechartexchange.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Price Chart 17 | StatMuse Moneystatmuse.com
  10. 10Bitcoin ends near $81,400 after $80,814 lowcryptowatchdesk.com
  11. 11CF Benchmarks REST Passthrough - API Documentationdocs.kalshi.com

8. Is minute-by-minute historical data for the CF Benchmarks BRTI index publicly available for traders to backtest short-term price patterns relevant to this market?

Public Historical BRTI DataNot publicly available for backtesting [1][2][3][4]
Official Data AccessRequires authorization, licensing, or payment [1][2][3][4]
BRTI Publication RateApproximately every second, with 200-millisecond pricing [5][6][7]
Official minute-by-minute BRTI historical data is not publicly available. Official historical values for the CF Benchmarks BRTI index are not openly downloadable for traders to backtest short-term price patterns [1][2][3][4]. Access to this data typically requires specific authorization, licensing, or payment [1][2][3][4]. For instance, obtaining official CF Benchmarks historical BRTI values via their REST API necessitates an API key and authorization, which are acquired by contacting CF Benchmarks for a license [1][2]. Similarly, CME distributes this data through paid channels such as CME DataMine [3][4]. While Kalshi offers a passthrough option, it requires an authenticated Trade API request and account entitlement, indicating it is not generally public [8].
BRTI is a precise real-time index challenging to reconstruct unofficially. The BRTI is a real-time, order-book-based Bitcoin/USD benchmark updated approximately every second, with 200-millisecond pricing, making it valuable for precise short-horizon settlement analysis [5][6][7]. Official BRTI tick history would be the appropriate underlying series for accurately reconstructing specific market intervals [8][5][9]. However, attempting to reconstruct BRTI data from public exchange information offers only an approximation and cannot guarantee the official historical ticks needed for exact backtesting [6][10]. This is because the BRTI is calculated from constituent-exchange order books using CF Benchmarks' proprietary aggregation and weighting rules [6][10]. Therefore, any third-party or self-derived data series should not be regarded as official BRTI data [9].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Gets historical data for a particular index, over a fixed period of time | CF Benchmarks APIdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  2. 2REST API | CF Benchmarks APIdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  3. 3Data Services CME DataMinecmegroup.com
  4. 4Real-Time & Historical Datacmegroup.com
  5. 5CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Indexcfbenchmarks.com
  6. 6CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BTRI) Methodology Guidecmegroup.com
  7. 7FAQ: CME CF Cryptocurrency Benchmarks - CME Groupcmegroup.com
  8. 8https://docs.kalshi.com/cfbenchmarks/rest-passthroughdocs.kalshi.com
  9. 9How to Pull Kalshi Settlement Source Data (BRTI for BTC) | Kalshi BackTestkalshibacktest.com
  10. 10CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com

9. What do the net inflow trends for BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC ETFs in Q4 2026 suggest about institutional demand for Bitcoin ahead of the resolution date?

IBIT Net Flows (Oct 19-21)Approx. +$930.1M [1][2]
FBTC Net Flows (Oct 19-21)Approx. +$132.7M [1][2]
October Overall ETF Flow (through Oct 21)Approx. +$461M [1][2][3]
Recent net inflows for IBIT and FBTC suggest mildly bullish institutional demand. Net inflow trends for BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC ETFs in Q4 2026 indicated a mildly bullish outlook for institutional demand ahead of the resolution date [1][4]. A sharp three-session reversal from October 19-21, 2026, saw IBIT's net flows reach approximately +$930.1 million and FBTC's net flows reach approximately +$132.7 million [1][2]. These combined inflows of roughly +$1.06 billion contributed significantly to the total U.S. spot-Bitcoin-ETF inflow of approximately +$1.07 billion during that three-day period [1][2]. IBIT's inflow of +$665.2 million on October 19 marked its largest daily inflow since October 2025, which analysts interpreted as resilient or renewed institutional interest [3][4][5].
Despite the rebound, overall demand in Q4 2026 showed volatility. Despite this late rebound, the signal for institutional demand was positive but volatile, lacking a clean and persistent trend [1][2][3]. Both funds experienced sizeable outflows earlier in Q4, specifically between October 7-8 and October 14-16 [1][2][3]. Consequently, the overall ETF flow for October through October 21 was only approximately +$461 million, as earlier losses largely offset the recent gains [1][2][3]. This pace remained below the roughly $200 million-$235 million per-day inflow range historically associated with steep Bitcoin rallies, leading CoinDesk to characterize demand as tentative [3][4][5].
ETF flow data provides directional context, not a precise price signal. It is important to note that ETF flow evidence offers directional context rather than a direct short-horizon price signal, given that ETF flow data are reported by trading session and may not be available in real time [1][6][7]. Therefore, ETF flows alone do not establish that Bitcoin (BTC) would trade above the $81,317.63 target during the specific 15-minute resolution interval [1][4][6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Bitcoin ETF Flow (US$m) – Farside Investorsfarside.co.uk
  2. 2Bitcoin ETF Flows: October 2026 — Daily Table & Net Totals · TFTCtftc.io
  3. 3BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF draws $665 million inflow, highest since October 2025theblock.co
  4. 4Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs take in $1 billion in 3 days. What next?coindesk.com
  5. 5Bitcoin ETFs Erase October Losses With $1 Billion in Three Days - Decryptdecrypt.co
  6. 6U.S. Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs Post $528.4 Million in Net Inflows | EconoTimeseconotimes.com
  7. 7prorexevents.pxmarkets.ai

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The dominant same-day bearish catalyst was broad risk-off trading, with the Nasdaq closing down 2.6% and the S&P 500 down 1.2% [1]. Oil prices rose amid renewed Middle East tensions [1]. Bitcoin fell from an intraday near-$85,000 squeeze, trading toward roughly $81,000–$81,600, while approximately $400M–$431M of crypto liquidations were reported [1][2][3]. This followed a decline below $82,000 in the morning and trading near $81,100–$81,400 in the afternoon amid persistent Nasdaq weakness [4][1][5].
Bullish offsets included $528.40M of U.S. spot-Bitcoin ETF inflows on Wednesday, contributing to three consecutive positive-flow days and weekly inflows above $1B through Wednesday [5]. Swiss FINMA approval of the BBIT spot Bitcoin ETF was expected to begin trading on SIX in November [5]. Key technical levels included resistance near $85,000 and initial support near the 50-day EMA at approximately $80,873 [2][5]. Deeper support was observed near the 100-day and 200-day EMAs at approximately $77,458 and $76,138; a decisive break of $82,500 could expose a move toward $70,000 [2][5].
For the October 22, 2026, 8:00–8:15 PM EDT Robinhood window with a $81,317.63 target, the evidence favored a bearish-to-neutral intraday bias rather than a clean bullish continuation [4][6][1][5]. Macro risk-off conditions and the retreat from $85,000 acted as immediate negatives, while ETF inflows and support around $80,900 offered stabilization [4][6][1][5]. No source establishes a precise probability for the $81,317.63 target [4][6][1][5].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: October 23, 2026
  • Expiration: October 30, 2026
  • Closes: October 23, 2026
Sources (6)
  1. 1Live updates: Bitcoin falls back to $81,000, with interest rates tumbling as stocks crackcoindesk.com
  2. 2Bitcoin gives back its run at $85,000 as Tesla and Meta fail to calm AI nervescoindesk.com
  3. 3Bitcoin falls below $82,000 as investors retreat from risk assetsfinance.yahoo.com
  4. 4October 22, 2026: BTC 15 min · 8:00–8:15 PM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Price Forecast: Where is BTC going next?fxstreet.com
  6. 6BTC Up or Down 15mpolymarket.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTC15M-26OCT222000-00: YES (Oct 23, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT221945-45: YES (Oct 22, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT221930-30: NO (Oct 22, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT221915-15: YES (Oct 22, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT221900-00: YES (Oct 22, 2026)