Short Answer

Bitcoin is expected to reach $81,752.11 between 10:45 PM EDT and 11:00 PM EDT on October 22, with the market pricing a 64.0% probability, while the model prices it lower at 52.4%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Attaining the $81,752.11 target requires strengthening demand and liquidity.
  • Bitcoin faces elevated volatility from macro pressures and pre-FOMC uncertainty.
  • The 10:00-11:00 PM EDT block typically exhibits moderate-to-low volatility.

Current Context

Robinhood's market snapshot showed low probability for $81,752.11. For the Oct. 22, 2026 10:45–11:00 PM EDT BTC prediction market interval, Robinhood displayed implied probabilities for the 11:00 PM EDT BTC market: 78% for $81,300 or above, 59% for $81,400 or above, 36% for $81,500 or above, and 19% for $81,600 or above [1][2]. The leading displayed ranges were $81,500–$81,599.99 at 22%, $81,400–$81,499.99 at 21%, and $81,300–$81,399.99 at 20% [2]. The specific $81,752.11 target falls within the $81,700–$81,799.99 range, which had a 9% implied probability at the cited snapshot [2]. This market evidence supports a base case near $81,500–$81,600 rather than a high-confidence exact print [1][2][3]. Comparable Robinhood 11:00 PM EDT contracts used CF Benchmarks’ Real Time Index, averaging 60 observations during the final minute for settlement [1][2][4][5]. Prediction-market outcomes rely on the venue’s specified CF Benchmarks RTI methodology, making an exact target like $81,752.11 not directly verifiable from a generic spot-price chart [1][2][6].
BTC faced technical support tests amid mixed analyst sentiment. On Oct. 23, 2026, BTC was reported around $81,300–$82,700 after a decline [6]. Technical commentary identified roughly $81,300 or $80,873 as near-term support and $85,000 as resistance [6][7][8]. Macro risk factors included weaker risk assets, Middle East tensions, oil above $110, and the upcoming Oct. 28 Fed decision [6][7][8]. Analyst views were varied: Caroline Mauron expected a possible retest of $85,000 with limited conviction, while Pratik Kala described BTC as resilient and anticipated an upward move [6][9]. Bitwise’s Ryan Rasmussen saw potential for BTC above $100,000 by year-end [9]. LO:TECH’s Adam Morgan McCarthy projected an $85,000–$95,000 year-end range, citing rate risks [9]. Bob Loukas identified $79,600 as a key closing-support/invalidation level over the next 45 days, highlighting the late-October to early-December period, the Oct. 28 FOMC meeting, and a reported $12 billion Oct. 30 options expiry as key dates [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1BTC price on Oct 22, 2026 at 11pm EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2BTC price range on Oct 22, 2026 at 11pm EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  3. 3BTC 15m Prediction Market Data | DepthFeeddepthfeed.com
  4. 415 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  5. 515 min Crypto Markets Crypto Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  6. 6Bitcoin Falls Below $83,000 as AI Jitters Weigh on Sentiment | Stock Market Newslivemint.com
  7. 7Bitcoin (BTC) Weekly Technical Analysis: $81,300 Support Faces a High-Volume Testinteractivecrypto.com
  8. 8Bitcoin Price Forecast: Where is BTC going next?fxstreet.com
  9. 9Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 splits analysts as rate risks loomcoindesk.com
  10. 10Bitcoin faces watershed in next 45 days as eyes turn to U.S. FOMCdigitaltoday.co.kr

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A "YES" resolution occurs if the final determined price of Bitcoin is greater than the target price of $81,752.11; otherwise, it resolves "NO". The market expires at 11:00 PM ET on October 22. The final price is calculated by averaging 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices from CF Benchmarks, which are collected during the last minute before the market's expiration.

Market Discussion

Bitcoin-linked 15-minute prediction contracts are a rapidly growing speculative market, with Bloomberg reporting record growth as of October 22–23, 2026, and Coinbase having launched crypto prediction contracts on October 6 [1][2][3]. While the $81,752.11 level appears in market data as a Bitcoin resistance reference, the search results do not establish it as a current 15-minute settlement target or consensus forecast for prediction markets [4][5][6][7]. Commentary is largely skeptical, arguing that 15-minute price changes are mostly random for ordinary traders, automated firms have an advantage, and most bettors will likely lose due to fees [3].

Sources (7)
  1. 1Fifteen-Minute Prediction Market Bets Scratch the Bitcoin Itch - Bloombergbloomberg.com
  2. 2What Prediction-Market Contracts Reveal at Launcharxiv.org
  3. 315-Minute Markets For Cryptocurrency Prices Are Surging in Popularity. It's Easy to Predict What Happens Next. | The Motley Foolfool.com
  4. 4Bitcoin Nears 4 Million Turkish Lira as Currency Slides to Record Lowpro.edgex.exchange
  5. 5Bitcoin (BTC) Funding Rates — Perpetual Futures | CoinCryptoRankcoincryptorank.com
  6. 6WBTC/WBTC - Wrapped BTC מחיר ב-Bluefin עם עמלה של 0.05% | GeckoTerminalgeckoterminal.com
  7. 765 SGD to HARD | Paybispaybis.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 81 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score65Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 2% of the price to slippage.

Trust score81Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
84Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $81,752.11—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $81,752.11—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $81,752.1195
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
65Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 63.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 63.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 1.0c slippage (~2% of a 63.5c contract)

Target Price: $81,752.11Primary–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 23, 2026

5. How might anticipation of the late-October 2026 FOMC meeting and major options expiries impact Bitcoin's price action on October 22?

2-week ATM Implied Volatility37.19% (up 1.44 volatility points) [1][2][3]
October 23 Options Expiry Max Pain$82,000–$82,750 [4][1][3][5]
October 30 Options Expiry Open Interestaround $11.1B [3][5]
Bitcoin faced elevated volatility amid macro pressures and pre-FOMC uncertainty. For the prediction-market window of October 22, 10:45–11:00 PM EDT, Bitcoin’s price action was characterized by elevated two-sided whipsaw risk [1][6][7][3]. Spot price could oscillate around a target of $81,752.11, particularly if BTC remained range-bound [1][6][7][3]. On October 22, Bitcoin was already under macro pressure, trading around $81,100–$81,500, having fallen approximately 2.5%–4.2% over 24 hours. This coincided with a 2.6% drop in the Nasdaq, sharply declining Treasury yields, and rising oil prices [6][7]. Overall, pre-FOMC uncertainty and a broader risk-off macroeconomic backdrop were expected to suppress upside potential and maintain BTC's volatility near support levels of $80,000–$81,250 [6][7][8][3][5].
Short-dated implied volatility was elevated ahead of significant options expiries. Into October 22, short-dated implied volatility was elevated and rising, with Derivasys reporting 2-week at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility (IV) at 37.19%, an increase of 1.44 volatility points. Other data sources placed 30-day IV around 38% [1][2][3]. A notable Bitcoin options expiry on October 23 was concentrated near the market, featuring reported max pain approximately between $82,000–$82,750 and near-term open interest of about $1.2B–$1.3B [4][1][3][5]. A much larger expiry on October 30 had a reported max-pain level of $78,000, with open interest around $11.1B [3][5].
The target price aligned with options max pain, suggesting potential pinning. The $81,752.11 target was positioned just below Bitcoin's contemporaneous price and close to the October 23 near-term expiry’s $82,000–$82,750 max-pain zone, making a pinning or mean-reversion outcome plausible, though not assured [4][9][3][5]. Specifically, this target was about $250 below the reported $82,000 near-expiry max pain and roughly $1,000 below the $82,750 max-pain estimate, supporting a nearby range or pinning thesis rather than a deterministic point prediction [4][9][7][3]. While options hedging and dealer gamma near $82,000 could exert a pull on the price toward that area before expiry, a significant macro headline, an equity selloff, or dealer-hedging flows could materially shift Bitcoin away from this target during the short resolution window [1][6][7][3].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Bitcoin (BTC) Options Volatility Report — 22 October 2026 | Derivasysderivasys.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Options: Implied Volatility, Open Interest & Expiriesperpfinder.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Options: IV, Max Pain, Put/Call | CoinClasscoinclass.com
  4. 4BTC options: weekly expiry in 17 hours, max pain at 82,750 | Liqwallliqwall.com
  5. 5Bitcoin week ahead: Alpenglow 21 Oct, options expiry 23 Octcryptowatchdesk.com
  6. 6Live updates: Bitcoin falls back to $81,000, with interest rates tumbling as stocks crackcoindesk.com
  7. 7Bitcoin’s $80,000 Floor Faces Pressure From Tech and Bond Volatility | Investing.cominvesting.com
  8. 8Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: October 2026federalreserve.gov
  9. 9Key facts: BTCUSD OI +3%; $1.23B Options Expire; Support ~$80k — TradingView Newstradingview.com

6. What historical volatility patterns for Bitcoin, particularly from Q3-Q4 2025, are associated with the 10:00 PM to 11:00 PM EDT time block?

Time Block Conversion10:00 PM to 11:00 PM EDT converts to 02:00–03:00 UTC until November 1, then 03:00–04:00 UTC after November 2 (Q3–Q4 2025) [1][2][3]
Historical VolatilityGenerally moderate-to-low during these UTC times compared to other periods [1][2][4]
Volatility Concentration TrendIncreasingly in U.S. trading hours during 2022–2025, with a volatility-weighted center at 17:10 UTC [3]
For Q3–Q4 2025, the 10:00 PM to 11:00 PM EDT time block consistently exhibits moderate-to-low Bitcoin volatility. This period corresponds to 02:00–03:00 UTC until November 1, then shifting to 03:00–04:00 UTC after November 2 due to the end of U.S. daylight saving time [1][2][3]. Historical patterns for these specific UTC intervals are generally associated with subdued Bitcoin volatility when compared to other trading periods [1][2][4].
Hourly profiles and recent trends indicate subdued volatility during these times. Long-run hourly data does not identify 02:00–03:00 UTC as a primary peak for Bitcoin volatility, with Winrate's index showing lower values at 02:00 UTC on both weekdays and weekends [1][2]. Research summarized by Tiger Brokers further supports this, indicating a trend from 2022–2025 where Bitcoin volatility has increasingly concentrated in U.S. trading hours, with the volatility-weighted center moving to 17:10 UTC [3]. This pattern aligns with a generally quieter regime during the late U.S. night and early Asia overnight hours [3].
Specific data calculations are unavailable, reinforcing moderate-to-low volatility expectations. While a Binance BTCUSDT 1-hour dataset spanning January 1, 2024, through December 31, 2025, is available for precise calculations of Q3–Q4 2025 distributions for 02:00–03:00 UTC and 03:00–04:00 UTC, these exact calculations were not provided in the research results [5]. Consequently, for the prediction-market interval concluding October 22 at 11:00 PM EDT, the historical base rate implied by existing hourly profiles is more consistent with moderate-to-low volatility than with the occurrence of a recurring late-night spike [1][2][4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Winrate.io - Bitcoin Volatility Index Hour by Hourwinrate.io
  2. 2BTC/USD market hours: when BTCUSD actually movesturnmarks.com
  3. 3Bitcoin's Volatility Now Tracks Wall Street's Clock: A 24-Hour Market Falls Into Line with Traditional Hours - Tiger Brokersitiger.com
  4. 4Witching Hours for Traders: Inside Crypto’s Late-Night Liquidation Spikesfinance.yahoo.com
  5. 5SubhayanBiswas/Binance-Vision-Sample-Datagithub.com

7. How do the Q4 2026 Bitcoin price forecasts from Bitwise's Ryan Rasmussen and LO:TECH's Adam Morgan McCarthy differ in their assumptions about interest rate risks?

McCarthy Q4 2026 Forecast$85,000–$95,000 (LO:TECH) [1][2]
McCarthy Condition for >$100kRequires December rate-hike expectations to fade, lower oil prices, slower inflation [1][2]
Rasmussen Q4 2026 PotentialAbove $100,000 (Bitwise) [1][2]
Analysts differ significantly on interest rate risk for Q4 2026 Bitcoin forecasts. Ryan Rasmussen of Bitwise and Adam Morgan McCarthy of LO:TECH hold divergent assumptions regarding the impact of interest rates on their Q4 2026 Bitcoin price forecasts. McCarthy views interest-rate expectations as a binding condition for Bitcoin's price movements, indicating a higher sensitivity to rate changes. In contrast, Rasmussen treats rate-driven volatility as a near-term obstacle within a broader bullish thesis, suggesting a less decisive role for rates in the long term [1][2].
McCarthy's forecast links Bitcoin's ceiling directly to Federal Reserve rate actions. His base case for Q4 2026 predicts an $85,000–$95,000 year-end trading range, influenced by Federal Reserve actions and market pricing of rate hikes, which he believes creates unfavorable macro conditions for Bitcoin [1][2]. For Bitcoin to surpass $100,000, McCarthy explicitly requires December rate-hike expectations to diminish, alongside reduced oil prices and decelerating inflation [1][2].
Rasmussen maintains a bullish outlook, seeing rate volatility as a buying opportunity. He anticipates Bitcoin could recover above $100,000 by Q4 2026, driven by institutional and corporate buying, demand for hard assets amid inflation, and greater regulatory clarity [1][2]. While acknowledging interest-rate risk and expecting volatility around potential Federal Reserve hikes, Rasmussen views such uncertainty as an opportunity to build positions. Bitwise's framework suggests that the historical interest-rate cycle may be less decisive as rates are projected to fall, and Rasmussen sees rate expectations as part of capital rotation and crypto liquidity [3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Bitwise sees bitcoin above $100,000 by end of 2026, LO:TECH sees $85,000–$95,000atlabyte.com
  2. 2Institutions differ on whether BTC can return to 2026 by year-end 100000 USD Views diverge · BIBIBIbibibi.cc
  3. 310 Crypto Predictions for 2026dacfp.com
  4. 4Bitwise: Has Bitcoin Bottomed Or Is The… Transcriptspoken.md

8. What is the typical deviation between the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index (RTI) and spot prices on major exchanges like Coinbase during evening U.S. trading hours?

Typical RTI-Coinbase Deviation (Percentage)0.01%–0.10% [1][2][3][4]
Central Expectation for Deviation0.03%–0.05% [1][2][3][4]
Unusual Sustained Gap ThresholdLarger than $80–$100 [1][2][3][4]
The CF Benchmarks Real Time Index typically tracks major exchanges closely. During evening U.S. trading hours, the deviation between the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index (RTI) and spot prices on major exchanges like Coinbase is estimated to be near zero, typically measured in tens of dollars. This corresponds to roughly 0.01%–0.10%, with a central expectation for this deviation consistently around 0.03%–0.05% [1][2][3][4].
The Real Time Index uses a consolidated order book for continuous calculation. The CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI/RTI) is not simply Coinbase’s last trade; instead, it is continuously calculated from a consolidated order book across constituent exchanges. Coinbase joined as a constituent exchange on October 28, 2019, significantly boosting the index's liquidity and representativeness [1][2][5][6][7][8]. For a prediction-market target of $81,752.11, the estimated normal evening tracking band for RTI-versus-Coinbase is approximately $81,670–$81,834 for a 0.10% envelope, and $81,711–$81,793 for a 0.05% envelope. A sustained gap materially larger than about $80–$100 would be considered unusual without specific market conditions [1][2][3][4].
Precise deviation requires specific historical data analysis due to methodology. The benchmark’s methodology does not publish a fixed expected Coinbase spread or a guaranteed tracking tolerance [1][2][5]. Consequently, any claim of a precise typical deviation requires downloading synchronized historical BRTI and Coinbase BTC-USD data and calculating specific statistics for 22:45–23:00 EDT windows [1][2][5]. Public snapshots for a specific episode are not synchronized 22:45–23:00 EDT observations, meaning they cannot establish the exact 15-minute deviation [5][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  2. 2CME CF (BRTI)cmegroup.com
  3. 3Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, Bitcoin Premium Index | CoinGlasscoinglass.com
  4. 4https://docs.coinglass.com/reference/coinbase-premium-indexdocs.coinglass.com
  5. 5CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Indexcfbenchmarks.com
  6. 6CME CF Cryptocurrency Benchmarkscmegroup.com
  7. 7CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  8. 8CF Cryptocurrency Index Familydocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Real-Time Historical Data (BRTI) - Investing.cominvesting.com
  10. 10Cryptocurrency Markets, Live Prices and Charts, Spot and Futurescoinalyze.net

9. What specific on-chain metrics would need to change to support a BTC price move toward the $81,700–$81,800 range by October 22, 2026?

Coinbase Premiumapproximately -0.056 [1][2]
MVRVabout 1.52–1.56 [3][4][5][1]
NUPLabout 0.34–0.36 [3][4][5][1]
For Bitcoin to reach the $81,700–$81,800 range by October 22, 2026, strengthening demand and liquidity are crucial. This target range, being a nearby intraday level, would primarily reflect increased buying pressure rather than a fundamental structural repricing [6][7][8][1]. Key metrics indicating such a short-term move would include hybrid flow and derivatives indicators alongside core on-chain data, such as spot CVD/net taker flow, exchange netflows, stablecoin purchasing power, open interest, funding, basis, and liquidation clusters [2][9][10]. Specifically, exchange netflows would need to remain negative or turn more negative, while spot CVD would need to turn decisively positive [1][2]. The Coinbase Premium, which was approximately -0.056, would need to move above zero, and stablecoin supply/SSR would need to show improvement [1][2].
Sustained price growth relies on underlying on-chain health and careful monitoring. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) would need to hold above 1, signaling a shift in short-term-holder spending from loss to profit [3][4][5][2]. Similarly, the Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) ratio and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) would need to rise modestly without entering overheated territory [3][4][5][2]. It is also essential that miner and long-term-holder selling does not accelerate [2]. A renewed increase in exchange inflows, a negative spot CVD, or a negative Coinbase Premium would present a bearish scenario [1][2][11][12]. Additionally, a failure of the approximately $81,300 support area would act as an invalidating factor [1][2][11][12]. Furthermore, if open interest were to rise concurrent with negative price action or aggressive long liquidations, or if funding were to become excessively positive, a brief print in the $81,700–$81,800 range would be less likely or more likely to represent a liquidity wick rather than sustained demand [1][10].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Is Bitcoin Headed to $81,000? What On-Chain Data Showsfinance.yahoo.com
  2. 2BGeometricscharts.bgeometrics.com
  3. 3Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics: MVRV, SOPR, NUPL & More | InsideCryptoinsidecrypto.net
  4. 4On-Chain Indicators: Bitcoin MVRV, Exchange Reserves & Hashratetoolz.trade
  5. 5All 101 Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics — Charts & Free Data | OnChainLabonchainlab.net
  6. 6Bitcoin Real-Time Historical Data (BRTI) - Investing.cominvesting.com
  7. 7BTC price today, 23 October 2026 — live chart & history | Tindextindex.app
  8. 8Bitcoin Price Today | BTC Live Price, Chart & Market Capokx.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Onchain Signals Tighten - Darkex Official Academy Areaacademy.darkex.com
  10. 10Cryptocurrency Futures Market Data: Open Interest, Funding Rate and Liquidationscoinalyze.net
  11. 11Bitcoin (BTC) Weekly Technical Analysis: $81,300 Support Faces a High-Volume Testinteractivecrypto.com
  12. 12Crypto News & Market Updates | Tothemoonnews.tothemoon.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The October 22, 2026, 10:45–11:00 PM EDT window represented a Robinhood/Kalshi-style short-horizon BTC contract based on CF Benchmarks RTI/BRTI averages, not a spot-exchange print; the $81,752.11 target was not verified as an official threshold [1][2][3][4][5]. Bearish catalysts that day included a broad AI/technology selloff, rising oil amid renewed Middle East/Iran tensions, and falling risk appetite [6][7][8][9]. Tesla's lower-than-expected Q3 capex also contributed to the downside [7][10]. Bitcoin fell from nearly $85,000 toward $81,400–$81,500, while Nasdaq and Asian equities also weakened [6][7][10].
Countering these pressures, continued spot-Bitcoin ETF flows, a rebound from the session low, and falling Treasury yields as investors moved into bonds offered some support [6][7][10][9]. The possibility of increased Tesla spending later also presented a bullish element [6][7][10][9]. However, these factors did not overcome the broader risk-off reversal [6][7][10][9]. Key technical levels for the period included $84,840–$85,000 resistance, $82,500 as a pivotal support, and $81,300 as a lower-range threshold, with $79,821 identified as the October 15 low [10][9].
Nearby October 22 expiration markets indicated a late-session BTC level around $81,300–$81,500 [1][11][12][2]. Bitfinex Alpha analysts expected Bitcoin to remain roughly within $81,300–$84,400 until the Federal Reserve meeting on October 28, 2026 [9]. Sustained ETF demand and stable leverage favored an upside break, while macro pressure and a close below $81,300 increased downside risk [9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: October 23, 2026
  • Expiration: October 30, 2026
  • Closes: October 23, 2026
Sources (12)
  1. 1BTC price on Oct 22, 2026 at 11pm EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2BTC price range on Oct 22, 2026 at 11pm EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  3. 3October 22, 2026: BTC 15 min · 5:15–5:30 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  4. 4October 22, 2026: BTC 15 min · 7:45–8:00 PM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  5. 5October 22, 2026: BTC 15 min · 5:00–5:15 PM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  6. 6Live updates: Bitcoin slumps below $82,000 as markets go risk off on AI selloff, oil surgecoindesk.com
  7. 7Bitcoin gives back its run at $85,000 as Tesla and Meta fail to calm AI nervescoindesk.com
  8. 8Bitcoin dives 4%, slides below $82k as AI rout, oil surge slams risk sentiment By Investing.cominvesting.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Price Drops 3% as Trump Iran Comments Add to Market AI Nervescointelegraph.com
  10. 10Bitcoin Price Seals Lower High After Rejection Near $85Kcointelegraph.com
  11. 11BTC price on Oct 22, 2026 at 10pm EDT? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  12. 12BTC price on Oct 22, 2026 at 10pm EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 12 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTC15M-26OCT222245-45: YES (Oct 23, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT222230-30: YES (Oct 23, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT222215-15: YES (Oct 23, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT222200-00: NO (Oct 23, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT222145-45: NO (Oct 23, 2026)