Short Answer

Bitcoin is expected to reach $84,950.17 between 1:45 PM EDT and 2:00 PM EDT on October 3, an outcome the market prices at 59.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • The $84,950.17 target faces overhead resistance from order book depth.
  • Bitcoin’s rejection above $87,000 and liquidations drove price near $84,600.

Current Context

The BTC prediction market targets $84,950.17 during a specific 15-minute window. The contract runs from 1:45–2:00 PM EDT on October 3, 2026, and questions whether Bitcoin will be at or above this target at expiration [1][2]. Short-term contracts like this settle using CF Benchmarks’ Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI). The outcome is determined by comparing the average of 60 BRTI readings immediately before expiration with the average of 60 readings immediately before the window begins, rather than a retail exchange quote [1][3][4]. On October 3, BTC consolidated between $84,600 and $84,900 after rejecting the $87,085–$87,219 range [5][2][6]. Reported 24-hour liquidations totaled approximately $433.6 million, with longs accounting for roughly 74% [5][2][6].
Technical levels were mixed amid increased derivatives open interest. Support was identified around $84,000–$84,300 and then $83,300–$83,800 [2][6]. Reclaiming $85,000–$85,500 was described as the first bullish trigger toward $86,000 and the $87,000 area [2][6]. Derivatives positioning increased materially, with over $1.3 billion of Bitcoin open interest entering over two days [7]. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades highlighted $85,500–$86,000 as a zone where many recent longs opened, indicating that a loss of this level could intensify liquidation pressure [7]. The broader macro picture was constructive but fragile; Citi reportedly raised its 12-month BTC target to $113,000 on ETF-demand grounds [8]. However, ETF flows had recently cooled, and elevated Treasury yields remained a headwind [8][9].
Key upcoming catalysts and broader prediction market sentiment offered mixed signals. Market coverage cited FOMC minutes on October 7, September CPI on October 14, and the Fed meeting on October 27–28 as significant upcoming events [10][8][9]. Kalshi traders on October 1 priced a 72% chance of BTC exceeding $87,500 during October and 56% for exceeding $90,000 [10]. Polymarket’s October 3 market showed $84,000–$86,000 as the leading daily range at about 98.4% [11]. While prediction market evidence supported a mid-$84,000s regime, it did not provide a reliable direct probability for this exact 15-minute contract [11][10][1]. The $84,950.17 threshold was near the top of the reported intraday consolidation, so a close above it required a modest rebound of roughly $50–$350 from the cited $84,600–$84,900 area [5][2][1]. The immediate setup favored a near-balanced, highly noise-sensitive outcome rather than a high-confidence directional edge [5][2][1].
Sources (11)
  1. 1BTC 15 min · 1:45–2:00 PM EDT Crypto Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Price Gets Squeezed at $84K as $85K Becomes the Next Testnews.bitcoin.com
  3. 3October 3, 2026: BTC 15 min · 2:00–2:15 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  4. 4October 3, 2026: BTC 15 min · 4:45–5:00 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Price Slips to $84,600 as $433M Liquidations Hit Longs After $87K Rejectioncryptotimes.io
  6. 6Bitcoin price eyes $86,000 reclaim as Bollinger support holdscrypto.news
  7. 7Bitcoin Faces NFP Volatility as Saylor Sees 20% Annual BTC Gains Ahead | Live Bitcoin Newslivebitcoinnews.com
  8. 8What Would Get Bitcoin to $113K, based on Citi - Markets Weekendercrypto.com
  9. 9BTC fades to $84.9K as yields grip above 5%; a $2.4B ETF week already cooling to a trickle · QAXUSqaxus.com
  10. 10Bitcoin is trading near $84,000: How high will BTC go in October?news.kalshi.com
  11. 11Bitcoin price on October 3?polymarket.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves "YES" if the final average Bitcoin price is greater than $84,950.17, and "NO" if it is less than or equal to $84,950.17. The market expires on October 3, 2:00 PM EDT. The official settlement price is calculated by averaging 60 CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected during the last minute before expiration.

Market Discussion

No dedicated discussion for the "BTC 15 min · $84,950.17 target" was found [1][2][3][4]. However, broader market sentiment for October 3 was bullish-to-rangebound, with Polymarket estimates putting the BTC median near $84,996 and technical analysis placing it around $84,573–$84,854, identifying intermediate resistance at $85,200–$85,500 [3][4][5]. While comparable 15-minute contracts at slightly lower targets resolved YES, Polymarket's daily odds should not be treated as a direct probability for this exact short-term contract due to differing resolution methodologies [1][2][3][6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1BTC 15 min · $84,598.41 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2BTC 15 min · $84,544.05 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Price Prediction for October 3: Polymarket Odds Put BTC Near $84,996polymarkettrader.com
  4. 4Analysis for BTCUSDT 15mturbotradebot.com
  5. 5BTC/USD 45M — Reaction From Support With Higher-Zone Potential for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by Mr_Anthony1 — TradingViewtradingview.com
  6. 6Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 3? — 95.5% YES | BTC $84,022awebanalysis.com

4. Trust Index

This scorecard was computed Oct 3, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 80 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score64Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 10% of the price to slippage.

Trust score80Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
84Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
65Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

1 contract

Target Price: $84,950.1765
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Target Price: $84,950.17—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $84,950.1795
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
64Caution

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 65 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (~1% of a 45.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (~1% of a 45.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 4.5c slippage (~10% of a 45.5c contract)

Target Price: $84,950.17Primary65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 3, 2026

5. What are the key liquidation levels for BTC longs and shorts surrounding the $84,950 price target on October 3?

Modeled Shorts Liquidation (10:36 UTC)$84,887 ($42.6M) [1][2]
Modeled Longs Liquidation (10:36 UTC)$83,901 ($37.4M) [1][2]
Nearest Substantial Long Liquidation (separate model)$83,550.5–$83,974.6 ($353.03M) [3]
Bitcoin liquidation levels dynamically shifted throughout October 3, 2026. Initial modeled BTC liquidation bands at 10:36 UTC were approximately $84,887 for shorts (totaling $42.6M) and $83,901 for longs (totaling $37.4M), based on a reference price of $84,950.17 [1][2]. Later that day at 17:20 UTC, the nearest modeled clusters adjusted, with estimated liquidation levels shifting to $84,420 for longs ($29.2M) and $85,015 for shorts ($29.6M) [2]. These movements highlight the dynamic nature of such liquidation estimates.
Separate models provided broader liquidation bands and market context. One estimated-level model indicated a substantial long-liquidation band between $83,550.5 and $83,974.6, amounting to about $353.03M, and a substantial short-liquidation band between $85,246.9 and $85,671.1, totaling approximately $361.93M, referencing a price of $84,822.8 [3]. In the broader market, BTC traded near $84,600–$84,635 on October 3 after experiencing an $87,000 rejection [4]. It is important to note that the official resolution of prediction-market contracts relies on CF Benchmarks' BRTI averages, not simply an exchange's spot price [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1BTC Liquidation Heatmap · Live Bitcoin Liquidation Map | ByKarantelibykaranteli.com
  2. 2Crypto Liquidation Heatmap · Live Liquidation Mapbykaranteli.com
  3. 3Bitcoin (BTC) Liquidation Levels (Estimated)swolecharts.com
  4. 4Bitcoin Price Slips to $84,600 as $433M Liquidations Hit Longs After $87K Rejectioncryptotimes.io
  5. 5October 3, 2026: BTC 15 min · 12:45–1:00 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com

6. How does order book depth on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase characterize support and resistance near $84,950?

Overhead Resistance Target$84,950 (as of Oct. 3, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Broader Ask Resistance$36.32 million in $84,625-$85,048 band [5][3]
Substantial Bid Support$45.28 million queued to buy at $84,204-$84,625 [5][3]
Order book depth suggests $84,950 will meet overhead resistance. As of October 3, 2026, major exchanges indicate that $84,950 is likely to encounter overhead resistance. Although current Bitcoin prices are below this target, spot order books reveal a near-term demand bias and substantial bid support at lower price levels [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Significant sell liquidity forms a strong resistance zone near $84,950. Data from major exchanges shows considerable resistance around this price point. Coinbase spot, for instance, recorded approximately $5.51 million of sell liquidity at $85,030 [2]. A broader depth analysis identified about $36.32 million in asks within the $84,625-$85,048 range, signaling substantial supply as prices approach $84,950 [5][3]. Furthermore, independent market-structure analysis also indicates immediate resistance near $84,700/$85,122, suggesting that $84,950 is positioned above a key value area but below a more extensive resistance region [2][5][3].
Despite demand bias, dynamic order books limit predictive reliability. Conversely, Binance's spot depth revealed a $4.06 million bid advantage, and Coinbase's spot book also displayed more bids than asks, collectively indicating a near-term demand bias [1][2]. A notable bid zone between $84,204-$84,625 contained approximately $45.28 million queued to buy, acting as a strong support wall below current prices [6]. While these spot bid imbalances and support walls offer downside protection, the concentrated overhead asks, particularly within the $84,625-$85,048 range and Coinbase's $85,030 wall, present significant resistance. Successfully reaching and sustaining $84,950 would require absorbing this supply. However, it is crucial to note that order book evidence is dynamic; visible walls can be canceled, replenished, or fragmented across exchanges, meaning this data cannot reliably predict future market outcomes [1][2][6][7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Binance Spot Bitcoin Book Shows $4.06 Million Bid Advantage | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  2. 2Coinbase spot BTC has a sell order of approxi...chaincatcher.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Market Microstructure Archive: 2026-10-03 | thru.capitalthru.capital
  4. 4BTCUSDT Order Book · Crypto Market APIdata.solariaworld.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Order Book Depth: Where Are the Big Orders? | Maketomaketo.com
  6. 6Bitcoin (BTC) Order Book Live — Combined from Major Exchangestapesurf.com
  7. 7rest-api.mdgithub.com
  8. 8https://docs.cdp.coinbase.com/api-reference/advanced-trade-api/rest-api/products/get-product-bookdocs.cdp.coinbase.com
  9. 9https://docs.cdp.coinbase.com/api-reference/exchange-api/rest-api/products/get-product-bookdocs.cdp.coinbase.com

7. How do on-chain metrics like exchange flows compare with derivatives data like open interest leading into the October 3 resolution window?

Aggregate Open Interest IncreaseApproximately 27,000 BTC [1][2][3]
Annualized Perpetual Funding RiseFrom ~3% to 10% [1][2][3]
Long LiquidationsApproximately $321.8M [4][5][6]
Derivatives positioning aggressively rebuilt, indicating increasingly expensive bullish sentiment before the resolution. Leading into the October 3 resolution window, aggregate open interest in derivatives increased significantly, rising by approximately 27,000 BTC, or $2.3B/4.3%, from roughly 626,000 BTC on September 30 to 653,000 BTC/$56.2B by October 2 [1][2][3]. This period also saw annualized perpetual funding climb from about 3% to 10%, reflecting a growing cost for bullish positioning [1][2][3]. For the 15-minute target, derivatives data was considered more immediately relevant than daily on-chain flow [4][6][3].
On-chain exchange flows presented mixed, mildly supply-positive signals across cohorts. Concurrently, on-chain exchange-flow evidence was mixed, leaning mildly supply-positive, with its direction varying based on the cohort and measurement window [7][8][9]. For example, on October 2, the $1M–$10M and >$10M cohorts recorded net outflows of −2,611.6 BTC and −3,061.1 BTC respectively [7][8][9]. However, a separate whale-flow report measured a net inflow of +1,192 BTC into exchanges over October 1–2 [7][8][9]. Another dashboard indicated a −21,906 BTC 7-day exchange flow [7][8][9].
The market experienced a significant selloff, flushing leverage with a spot-led pullback. The subsequent market selloff led to a substantial liquidation of leverage, with reported 24-hour crypto liquidations totaling approximately $433.6M, of which $321.8M (74.2%) were long liquidations [4][5][6]. During the intraday selloff, Binance BTC open interest decreased from $8.63B to $8.03B [4][6]. The immediate market context preceding the resolution window was characterized by a sharp, spot-led pullback rather than a clear derivatives-only move, suggesting a volatile and two-sided short-term setup [4][5][6]. Additionally, ETF/spot-demand context was cooling, marked by a $148.7M ETF net outflow on October 1, followed by a $102.7M inflow on October 2 [10][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Bitcoin Open Interest Rises $2.3B as Leverage Returnsthetokenpress.com
  2. 2Jobs Miss & a $87K Ceilingcoinjuice.com
  3. 3Funding Jumps 3%→10%; ETF Inflows Shrink by Two-Thirds | BTCtiming.combtctiming.com
  4. 4$BTC - Market Update (10/3) for BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P by Tealstreet — TradingViewtradingview.com
  5. 5Bitcoin Price Slips to $84,600 as $433M Liquidations Hit Longs After $87K Rejectioncryptotimes.io
  6. 6Bitcoin Market Microstructure Archive: 2026-10-03 | thru.capitalthru.capital
  7. 7Bitcoin Exchange Netflow Volume by Size All Exchanges - Glassnodestudio.glassnode.com
  8. 8Bitcoin on-chain flows: exchanges, SOPR and miners · CriptoTrack.comcriptotrack.com
  9. 9Bitcoin Whale Activity, 2 Oct 2026: 1,192 BTC net into exchanges — BTC Dips Below $84.5K; Whale Accumulation Outpaces Distributionswisswhaleintelligence.com
  10. 10BTC fades to $84.9K as yields grip above 5%; a $2.4B ETF week already cooling to a trickle · QAXUSqaxus.com
  11. 11Key facts: CRYPTO:BTCUSD $148.7M outflow; $362.8M liq; OI~653kBTC; >$85,700 — TradingView Newstradingview.com

8. What is the historical tracking error between the CF Benchmarks BRTI and the BTC/USD spot price on major exchanges?

Average BTC Venue Dispersion2.41 basis points (March 13–June 10, 2026 study, 5 venues) [1]
Max BTC Venue Dispersion (4-hr)Under 10 basis points (March 13–June 10, 2026 study) [1]
BTC Venue Spread0.035% (September 10, 2026, 6 USD venues) [2]
Historical tracking error data for BRTI is not publicly available. Explicit historical tracking error numbers between the CF Benchmarks BRTI and BTC/USD spot prices on major exchanges are not available in the research [3][1][4]. Calculating a precise historical BRTI-versus-spot tracking error requires licensed historical values from CF Benchmarks, as public API documentation indicates that access to the index and historical data streams requires authorization [4][3].
Cross-exchange price discrepancies are generally minimal, typically a few basis points. Publicly available evidence suggests that normal cross-exchange discrepancies among major venues are typically a few basis points. A study conducted from March 13 to June 10, 2026, across five venues (Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, Bybit) found an average highest-minus-lowest BTC venue dispersion of 2.41 basis points after converting USDT quotes to USD, occasionally reaching up to 10 basis points in four-hour snapshots [3][1][4]. Separately, on September 10, 2026, six quoted BTC venues exhibited a spread of $27.18, with the USD venues described as only 0.035% apart [2]. The BRTI is not a single-exchange quote; instead, it is a real-time benchmark calculated every second by aggregating order-book data from major constituent exchanges [3][5]. CF's methodology aims to reject erroneous order books and mitigate the impact of venue-specific outliers, focusing on consolidated order-book construction and replicability rather than publishing a fixed historical tracking-error statistic [5][6].
Unverified claims of BRTI lagging spot prices conflict with its design. A non-primary source claimed that BRTI could lag Coinbase during rapid price movements due to smoothing; however, this description conflicts with CF's official public account of BRTI's order-book-based, once-per-second calculation. Therefore, claims of an 8–14-second lag and a 0.3% trigger are considered unverified [7]. For 15-minute prediction markets, settlement is based on the simple average of 60 BRTI observations in the final minute, rounded to two decimal places, rather than a retail exchange quote [8][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1How Much Do Bitcoin Prices Differ Across Exchanges? A 90-Day, 5-Venue Study · SiftingIOsifting.io
  2. 2Why Do Crypto Prices Differ Between Exchanges and Trackers?coinpaprika.com
  3. 3CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Indexcfbenchmarks.com
  4. 4Gets historical data for a particular index, over a fixed period of time | CF Benchmarks APIdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  5. 5CME CF Cryptocurrencydocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  6. 6Analysis of the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate and CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Indexsmallake.kr
  7. 7Settlement-Source Drift Arbitrage: Kalshi BRTI vs Coinbase Spot | Kalshi BackTestkalshibacktest.com
  8. 8October 3, 2026: BTC 15 min · 12:45–1:00 AM EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  9. 9BTC 15 min · $84,578.63 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  10. 10BTC 15 min · $84,598.41 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

9. What is the technical analysis consensus from sources like NewsBTC and Cointelegraph on BTC's key intraday levels for October 3?

Initial Resistance Zone$85,000-$85,500 [1][2][3]
Main Downside Support$82,000-$82,500 [1][4][5][6][3]
BTC Price on Oct 3$84,575-$84,887 [1][7][8][2][3]
Bitcoin faced significant resistance on October 3, struggling to sustain gains. Technical analysis pointed to an initial resistance zone for BTC between $85,000 and $85,500, with stronger overhead supply noted around $86,000-$87,300/$87,400 [1][2][3]. The primary downside support consensus was established in the $82,000-$82,500 range [1][4][5][6][3]. Cointelegraph reported that BTC touched approximately $87,200-$87,229 but failed to maintain above $86,000, while News.Bitcoin.com identified $85,000-$85,500 as the first upside trigger [1][2][3]. News.Bitcoin.com also pinpointed $82,555 as a structural floor, a level corroborated by Cointelegraph's confirmation of a successful retest of $82,800 [1][4][5][6][3]. Intraday references included $84,000-$84,300 as a pivot or support area and $85,200-$85,500 for the next breakout test [1][4][6][9][10]. As of October 3, BTC was valued at roughly $84,575-$84,887, following its rejection from the $87,000-$87,229 range [1][7][8][2][3].
Intraday outlook depended heavily on Bitcoin's ability to reclaim key levels. The $84,950.17 target for a 15-minute contract was positioned above the prevailing spot range but below the initial major resistance band [1][7][8][2][3]. The directional bias for this 15-minute contract, resolving between 1:45-2:00 PM EDT, was neutral-to-slightly bullish only if BTC reclaimed and held around $85,000-$85,500 [1][7][4][6]. Without this reclamation, intraday behavior was expected to be consolidation near $84,600-$85,000, with $84,500-$84,600 serving as a nearby downside reference [1][7][4][6]. There was no explicit statistically calibrated probability available for BTC being above or below $84,950.17 within the exact resolution window, which indicated low confidence for any definitive prediction [1][7][8][2][3].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Bitcoin Price Gets Squeezed at $84K as $85K Becomes the Next Testnews.bitcoin.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Order-Book Liquidity Battle Brings BTC Price To $86.8Kcointelegraph.com
  3. 3Bitcoin Gains ‘Cleanest Catalyst’ as Bond Yields Drop on Weak US Jobs Datacointelegraph.com
  4. 4Bitcoin price eyes $86,000 reclaim as Bollinger support holds | cryptotedcryptoted.net
  5. 5Bitcoin Whales Sell 30,000 BTC as $87K Rejection Puts $82.5K in Playblockonomi.com
  6. 6BTC Price Analysis: Is Bitcoin Gearing Up for $96K or a Retest of $82K?cryptopotato.com
  7. 7Bitcoin Price Slips to $84,600 as $433M Liquidations Hit Longs After $87K Rejectioncryptotimes.io
  8. 8Jobs Miss & a $87K Ceilingcoinjuice.com
  9. 9BTC/USD 45M — Reaction From Support With Higher-Zone Potential for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by Mr_Anthony1 — TradingViewtradingview.com
  10. 10Price Structure Analysis and Key Levels - Bitcoin for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by ArabicTrader — TradingViewtradingview.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The immediate tape for BTC was two-sided but risk-heavy, with weak September jobs data briefly pushed the price above $87,000 before rejection and deleveraging drove it toward $84,600. Crypto derivatives liquidations totaled roughly $433.6 million over 24 hours, with longs absorbing about three-quarters [1][2][3][4]. Prediction-market evidence for October 3 clustered BTC around $84,000–$86,000; Robinhood's 5 PM EDT thresholds showed $84,500+ at 66%, $84,750+ at 39%, and $85,000+ at 17% [5][6][7][8]. Key technical levels included $84,000–$85,000 as nearby support, $87,000 as the first major upside hurdle, and $82,500–$82,600 as a downside channel/liquidation area [2][3][4].
Bullish catalysts included reduced Fed October-hike odds, reported near 22% versus roughly 66% earlier in the week, and renewed spot-Bitcoin ETF inflows of $102.7 million on October 1 and $31.7 million on October 2 [1][3]. Conversely, bearish or volatility catalysts comprised elevated perpetual funding near 10%, a crowded long position, U.S. 10-year yields above 5%, slowing ETF-flow momentum, whale selling of more than 30,000 BTC, and repeated rejection near $87,000 [1][3][4]. Future dated macro catalysts include FOMC minutes on October 7, September CPI on October 14, and the FOMC meeting on October 27–28, 2026 [9][2][3].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: October 03, 2026
  • Expiration: October 10, 2026
  • Closes: October 03, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1Jobs Miss & a $87K Ceilingcoinjuice.com
  2. 2Bitcoin Price Slips to $84,600 as $433M Liquidations Hit Longs After $87K Rejectioncryptotimes.io
  3. 3BTC fades to $84.9K as yields grip above 5%; a $2.4B ETF week already cooling to a trickle · QAXUSqaxus.com
  4. 4Bitcoin Whales Sell 30,000 BTC as $87K Rejection Puts $82.5K in Playblockonomi.com
  5. 5BTC price on Oct 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  6. 6Bitcoin price on October 3?polymarket.com
  7. 7Bitcoin Price on October 3? | Lines.com Prediction Market Odds | Lines.comlines.com
  8. 8BTC price range on Oct 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT? Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  9. 9Pricing Out the Hikeresearch.glassnode.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 13 resolved YES, 7 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTC15M-26OCT031345-45: YES (Oct 03, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT031330-30: YES (Oct 03, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT031315-15: YES (Oct 03, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT031300-00: YES (Oct 03, 2026)
  • KXBTC15M-26OCT031245-45: YES (Oct 03, 2026)