Short Answer

Ethereum is unlikely to reach the $1,921.15 target price between 5:15 PM and 5:30 PM EST, with the market pricing this outcome at 41.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • The $1,921.15 target appears likely given recent ETH trading activity around this level.
  • This target aligns with a technical downside projection from DomicChaina.
  • Ethereum's open interest decreased, indicating long positions are unwinding after liquidations.

Current Context

ETH faces downward pressure amid broader market weakness and hawkish Fed signals. The specific market is Robinhood's 'ETH 15 min · 5:15–5:30 PM EST' on November 13, 2026, targeting $1,921.15 [1]. This market resolves Yes if the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSDRTI before 5:30 PM EST is at or above the target [1]. As of late November 13, ETH traded around $1,920–$1,945, having broken below $2,000 for the first time since August, with an overnight low near $1,896 [2][3][4]. The asset is down approximately 3.7–5% on the day, 12.4% on the week, and 39.5% over the year, coinciding with about $250 million of ETH positions liquidated [2][3][4][5]. Macroeconomic data includes October US PPI rising 6.5% year over year, the highest since November 2022, and 0.3% month over month [2][5]. This pushes odds of a 25 basis point Fed hike in December above 89%, with a quarter-point hike fully priced and a half-point move at around 12% according to CME FedWatch [2][5]. US spot Ethereum ETFs have shed $2.35 billion over seven weeks, marking six consecutive days of outflows [3][4]. A one-day net inflow of $53.02 million on November 4, led by BlackRock's ETHA, briefly interrupted a weeklong streak of approximately $514.8 million in outflows [3][4]. The 10-year Treasury yield, at 5.16%, sits 251 basis points above ETH's 2.65% staking yield [3][4]. Bitcoin is near $69,000, down about 6% in 24 hours and 8.96% weekly, contributing to a total crypto market cap of approximately $2.32 trillion, down 8.66% weekly [6][5][4]. The dollar index is above 103, reaching a 19-month high, while stablecoin supply has contracted by $14.2 billion [6][5][4]. Gold is near $3,900 and Brent crude is above $95 [6][5][4]. Liquidation events totaled approximately $1 billion in long positions on Sunday and about $1.6 billion combined Thursday and Friday [6][5][4].
Technical indicators suggest oversold conditions, while prediction markets show varied sentiment. Support levels for ETH are identified at $1,905/$1,896, followed by $1,875.53, $1,827, and $1,800 [2][3][4]. Resistance is found at the $1,964–$1,971 pivot, $2,000, $2,032.86, $2,101–$2,121, the 200-day moving average at $2,148.86, and the $2,250–$2,270 supply zone [2][3][4]. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is deeply oversold at approximately 24.8–25, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative at -107.5 [2][3][4]. A 15-minute TradingView setup on November 13 indicates a long position on a falling-wedge breakout, with entry at $1,920–$1,935, a stop at $1,885, and targets of $2,013, $2,060.2, and $2,105.3; this setup is invalidated by a close below $1,885 [7]. Polymarket data suggests 83.5% odds ETH hits $2,000 by end-November and 80% for $1,900 [8]. The 'What price will Ethereum hit in November' market, with $2.1 million traded across Polymarket and Kalshi, prices $2,100 at 51.5% and $1,800 at 44% [9]. Robinhood's November 13 5 PM EST range market shows 31% for $1,920–$1,959.99, 27% for $1,960–$1,999.99, and 17% for $1,880–$1,919.99 [10]. Vitalik Buterin has argued for ETH as a store of value over fee-burning, citing decentralization and CROPS [11]. Macro analysts expect buyers near $1,900, with risk below $1,850, and suggest a US-Iran breakthrough or a dovish Fed is necessary for a relief rally [11]. AI agent forecasts for ETH on November 30 range from approximately $1,905 to $1,925.5 [12]. Key upcoming dates include the Glamsterdam gas-repricing findings Q&A on November 16 [13], ACDE #249 spec changes on November 19 [13], Solana Breakpoint London from November 15–17 [14], late November PCE inflation data [5], and the Fed decision with updated projections on December 8–9 [5][15]. The Glamsterdam upgrade delivery is targeted for December 2026 [13].
Sources (15)
  1. 1November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 11:45–12:00 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH stays below $2,000, pressured by inflation and AI declinefxstreet.com
  3. 3Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction: Oversold bounce or another leg down after a sharp breakdown - Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
  4. 4Ethereum Price Forecast — ETH-USD ($1,933) $2,270 Upside Target on Record Staking and $2.35B ETF Outflowstradingnews.com
  5. 5Markets Today - November 13, 2026nexo.com
  6. 6CMC Market Pulse: Jensen Out, Bears in Control | CoinMarketCapcoinmarketcap.com
  7. 7ETH/USD Long: Falling Wedge Breakout & Demand Zone Reversal for BITSTAMP:ETHUSD by Aurum_Forex — TradingViewtradingview.com
  8. 8Ethereum Price Prediction 2026coingecko.com
  9. 9What price will Ethereum hit in November? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Marketsthepredictionmarkets.com
  10. 10Crypto ETH Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  11. 11The macro backdrop remains negative for Ethereum as Trump's Iran remarks fuel renewed risk aversioninvestinglive.com
  12. 12ETH prediction market runs through Nov. 13coinography.com
  13. 13weekly #47 | Ethereal newsethereal.news
  14. 14Crypto Calendar — Key Market Events | Intokened.comintokened.com
  15. 15BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP and SOL: What Traders Should Watch in Q4 2026cryptonews.net

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market, "ETH 15 min," covers the period from November 13, 5:15 PM to 5:30 PM EST, expiring at 5:30 PM EST. The final settlement price is determined by collecting 60 prices from CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI) during the last minute before expiration and averaging them. The specific conditions that trigger a YES or NO resolution for this market instance are not explicitly stated in the provided content.

Market Discussion

Public discussion for the "ETH 15 min · $1,921.15 target" on November 13, 2026, showed a split in sentiment among traders [1-5, 8-10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 19]. Bullish analyses, including a November 13, 2026 TradingView post, cited a falling wedge breakout and an 80.84 ETH bid wall at $1,920.9, proposing long setups with targets above $1,960 [1]. Conversely, other traders on November 13, 2026, predicted bearish continuation to targets as low as $1,820 after ETH dipped below $2,001, aligning with recent 15-minute markets that resolved "Down" or indicated a decline from ~$2,040 to the ~$1,920–1,950 range [2].

Sources (2)
  1. 1ETH/USD Long: Falling Wedge Breakout & Demand Zone Reversal for BITSTAMP:ETHUSD by Aurum_Forex — TradingViewtradingview.com
  2. 2ETH Up or Down 15mpolymarket.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 68 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score2Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score68Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
85Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $1,921.15—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract

Target Price: $1,921.15—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $1,921.1595
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
2Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 0.8c slippage (~2% of a 33.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 3.2c slippage (~10% of a 33.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Target Price: $1,921.15Primary–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 13, 2026

5. What is the immediate intraday correlation between US equity futures (S&P 500, Nasdaq) and ETH price, and how might that influence trading during the market's resolution window?

ETH-S&P 500 Correlation (Avg)0.31 (May 2018–Nov 2026) [1]
ETH Realized Variance (US Cash-Session)30.0% [1]
ETH-Nasdaq-100 Correlation (Avg)0.58 (2022 sample) [2]
ETH shows strong intraday correlation with US equity futures. During US cash-session hours, from 10 AM to 4 PM ET, Ether (ETH) exhibits a positive intraday correlation with US equity futures, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [1][3][2]. Although this period constitutes only 17.1% of observed time, it accounts for 30.0% of ETH's realized variance, indicating heightened volatility [1]. Over 2,000 trading intervals between May 2018 and November 2026, ETH's correlation with the S&P 500 averaged 0.31, increasing to approximately 0.50 in 2026 [1]. Similarly, a 2022 sample showed its 30-day rolling correlation with the Nasdaq-100 averaged 0.58 [2]. This sensitivity is particularly evident during market downturns, as ETH fell 79% of the time during the S&P's worst 5% of returns [1].
Equity correlation weakens after US market close, crypto factors dominate. However, this correlation with equities weakens significantly after 4 PM ET, suggesting that crypto-native flows primarily influence ETH price movements during off-hours [1][4]. The 5:15–5:30 PM EST resolution window is a critical period where crypto-specific dynamics become more prominent [1][4]. During these times, BTC/ETH behavior has been observed to shift towards gold-correlation and lower volatility [4]. For instance, on November 13, 2026, ETH experienced a decline to approximately $1,923–1,931 by late afternoon despite relatively flat S&P and Nasdaq futures [5][6][7]. This illustrates the impact of factors such as leveraged position liquidations and orderbook dynamics during off-hours [5][6][7]. The presence of bid and ask walls near key price points further highlights the crucial role of crypto-native market structure in facilitating price consolidation during these windows [8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Crypto’s Equity Exposure: Bitcoin, Ether and the US Trading Clocksentora.com
  2. 2Ethereum vs Nasdaq 100 (ETH vs QQQ) 2022: Returns, Risk & Volatility | Gale Financegale.finance
  3. 3[Vol.32 No.3] Equity Market Information Windows and Intraday Cryptocurrency Trading in Korea | Economic Analysis(상세) | Research | News & Publications | Bank of Koreabok.or.kr
  4. 4BTC Correlation Patterns: Equities During US Hours, Gold After Hours – Trading Analysis by Skew Δ | Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
  5. 5Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures waver as Nvidia tumult deepensuk.finance.yahoo.com
  6. 6Markets Today - November 13, 2026nexo.com
  7. 71,923.50 | ETH/USD | Spot | Crypto.com Exchangecrypto.com
  8. 8Polymaster's ETH Bullish Analysis | Questflownext.questflow.ai

6. Following the ~$250M in liquidations on November 13, what does derivatives data from Coinglass indicate about current open interest and funding rates for Ethereum?

ETH Open Interest$23.29B, a 6.18% decrease in USD over 24 hours [1]
24-hour ETH Liquidations$258.24M, with 77% attributable to longs [1]
ETH OI-weighted Funding Rate+0.0016% per 8 hours (approx. 1.79% annualized) [1][2]
Ethereum's open interest dropped, indicating long positions are unwinding. Following recent liquidations, Ethereum's open interest has decreased to $23.29 billion, representing a 6.18% decline in USD over 24 hours. This reduction is classified by Coinglass as 'Long Unwinding,' suggesting that long positions are being closed amid falling prices [1]. While the aggregate ETH open interest-weighted funding rate remains slightly positive at +0.0016% per 8 hours, equating to approximately 1.79% annualized, it signifies that long positions continue to pay shorts [1][2]. However, this rate is near neutral, implying no strong directional leverage bias in the market post-liquidation [1][2]. It is notable that some platforms, such as Hyperliquid, displayed elevated funding rates, reaching +11.0% APR [3].
Significant liquidations occurred as Ethereum's price fell below $2,000. The market experienced substantial 24-hour ETH liquidations totaling $258.24 million, with 77% of these attributed to long positions as Ethereum's price dropped below $2,000 [1][4]. This occurred within a broader derivatives context where 24-hour futures volume reached $49.64 billion, significantly outstripping spot volume by a 15.9x ratio [1]. Market sentiment also reflected a de-risked positioning and persistent bearishness, evidenced by the Fear & Greed Index registering 21, indicating 'Extreme Fear,' and ongoing spot ETH ETF outflows [1][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Ethereum Futures | ETH Open Interest, Funding Rate & Liquidations | CoinGlasscoinglass.com
  2. 2Ethereum (ETH) Liquidations, Funding Rate, Open Interest | Liqwallliqwall.com
  3. 3Ethereum (ETH) Liquidations, Funding & OI · Blockmetricblockmetric.io
  4. 4Ethereum Price Falls Below USD 2,000 as Liquidations Hit USD 250Manalyticsinsight.net

7. How do short-term Ethereum price targets from technical analysis on TradingView compare with forecasts from AI models and odds from prediction markets for November 13?

AI Model Median Forecast$1,931.70 (etherforecast.live [1])
AI Model Target with Confidence$2,026.96 with 57% confidence (todaystockprediction.com [2])
Robinhood Market Probability ($1,936.84 or above)5% (Robinhood [3])
TradingView technical analyses showed mixed Ethereum price targets for November 13. One analysis from DomicChaina suggested $1,921.62 as a downside target, contingent on ETH remaining below the $2,080–$2,120 range [4]. Conversely, Aurum_Forex identified the ~$1,920–$1,935 range as a potential long entry zone, with targets reaching $2,105.3, provided the price stayed above $1,885 [5]. Broader technical analysis on November 13, however, indicated an overall bearish sentiment for Ethereum [6][7][8].
AI models generally forecast Ethereum prices near or above the $1,921.15 strike for November 13. For instance, etherforecast.live's 6-hour model provided a median forecast of $1,931.70, indicating a 67–82% chance of exceeding $1,921.15 [1]. Another model from todaystockprediction.com targeted $2,026.96 with 57% confidence [2]. An AI agent from Finbold, however, forecasted a slightly lower price of $1,915 for November 30 [9].
Prediction markets showed low probabilities for higher Ethereum price strikes during the same period. The exact "ETH 15 min $1,921.15 target" prediction market for November 13 (5:15–5:30 PM EST) was not directly found [10][8][2][11]. However, comparable prediction markets for higher strikes during the same afternoon showed low probabilities, typically 5–15%, for the price to be 'above' those levels [3][12][13][14]. For example, Robinhood's market for '$1,936.84 or above' in a 4:15–4:30 PM EST window was priced at 5% [3]. Given that ETH was trading around $1,923–$1,945 on November 13, a strike of $1,921.15, positioned just below the spot price, would likely have resulted in 'above' odds approaching or exceeding 50% [10][8][2][11], suggesting near coin-flip probabilities for the market target.
Sources (14)
  1. 1Ethereum Forecast Snapshot: 6 Hours to 30 Days · ETH Forecastetherforecast.live
  2. 2Ethereum Price Prediction Today (Nov 13): Target $2,026.96todaystockprediction.com
  3. 315 min Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  4. 4ETHUSDT: Descending Channel Keeps 1,920 in Focus for BINANCE:ETHUSDT by DomicChaina — TradingViewtradingview.com
  5. 5ETH/USD Long: Falling Wedge Breakout & Demand Zone Reversal for BITSTAMP:ETHUSD by Aurum_Forex — TradingViewtradingview.com
  6. 6ETH USD Binance Technical Analysis - Investing.cominvesting.com
  7. 7Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH stays below $2,000, pressured by inflation and AI declinefxstreet.com
  8. 8Ethereum Price Forecast — ETH-USD ($1,933) $2,270 Upside Target on Record Staking and $2.35B ETF Outflowstradingnews.com
  9. 9ETH prediction market runs through Nov. 13coinography.com
  10. 101,923.50 | ETH/USD | Spot | Crypto.com Exchangecrypto.com
  11. 11Crypto ETH Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  12. 12November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 4:30–4:45 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  13. 1315 min Crypto Markets Crypto Odds & Predictions 2026 | Kalshikalshi.com
  14. 1415 min Ethereum Price Predictions & Odds - OG.comog.com

8. What is the composition of the CF Benchmarks ETHUSDRTI index, and are there notable arbitrage gaps between it and major spot exchanges like Coinbase that could affect the market's resolution?

Arbitrage gap closure timeApproximately 18 seconds [1]
Widest raw spot arbitrage gap0.25% [1]
US-vs-offshore ETH gap~0.5 0.7% [2][3][1]
The CF Benchmarks ETHUSDRTI index aggregates major exchange data using a specific methodology. This UK BMR-registered benchmark is composed of order flow from Bitstamp, Kraken, itBit, Gemini, and Coinbase (including Pro and Prime) [4][5][2]. Its methodology involves merging and uncrossing constituent order books, applying a dynamic order-size cap, limiting depth to a 1% mid-deviation band, and exponentially weighting towards the top of the book [6]. The index updates every 200 milliseconds and serves as the settlement input for event contracts on platforms such as Kalshi, CME Group, and ForecastEX [4][5][2][6].
Cross-exchange arbitrage opportunities for ETH are generally short-lived and modest. As of November 13, 2026, no cross-exchange ETH arbitrage route was profitable after taker fees, with the widest raw spot gap recorded at 0.25% [1]. While 12,876 profitable gaps opened over a 7-day period, they typically closed within approximately 18 seconds [1]. A notable US-vs-offshore gap of about 0.5-0.7% was observed on November 13, 2026, where offshore books traded higher than US spot and the ETHUSD_RTI [2][3][1]. Additionally, the Coinbase premium for ETH was largely negative throughout 2026, indicating weaker US demand and suggesting that the US-constituent index tended to sit slightly below the global spot during this period [7][8].
Kalshi's 15-minute ETH contracts resolve based on a final-minute average. For Kalshi's 15-minute ETH contracts (KXETH15M), resolution settles on the simple average of 60 one-second ETHUSDRTI prints occurring in the final minute before the window closes [9][10]. Consequently, the resolution for specific contracts, such as the 5:15-5:30 PM EST window on November 13, 2026, is highly sensitive to small movements in these final-minute averages, particularly when the target price is just below the prevailing index level [11][2][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Ethereum (ETH) Arbitrage: Live Spreads on 45 Exchangesarbitragegap.com
  2. 2CME CF Ether-Dollar Real Time Indexcfbenchmarks.com
  3. 3Cryptocurrency Markets, Live Prices and Charts, Spot and Futurescoinalyze.net
  4. 4CME CF Cryptocurrency Pricing Productssfu.ca
  5. 5CME CF Cryptocurrencyqrasset.com.br
  6. 6CME CF Cryptocurrency Real Time Indicesdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  7. 7Coinbase Premium Index — BTC & ETH vs Binance | Liquid Stateliquidstate.tech
  8. 8Ethereum Whales Pull ETH From as On-Chain Demand Risescoinfea.com
  9. 9How Kalshi Settles 15-Minute ETH Contractspredictionmarketspicks.com
  10. 10KXETH15M: Kalshi Ethereum 15-Minute Market, Livepredictionmarketspicks.com
  11. 11Ethereum Price History & Download ETH Price Data for Any Datebitgetapp.com
  12. 12Ethereum (ETH) and United States dollar (USD) Year 2026 Exchange Rate History. Cryptocurrency Market Capitalizations (CMC)freecurrencyrates.com

9. What key technical levels and order book imbalances will dictate Ethereum's price movement in the 5:15 PM to 5:30 PM EST window on November 13?

Order Book Imbalance+6.5% bid-leaning, $118M depth within 1% (as of 17:55 UTC Nov 13) [1]
Nearest Support (Buy Wall)$44.3M at $1,911.34 [2]
Immediate Resistance (AVWAP)$1,932.27 [2]
Ethereum's immediate price movement faces defined technical support and resistance levels. Nearest support is identified by a $44.3 million buy wall at $1,911.34 and an order-block swing level at $1,915.78 [2][3]. Conversely, immediate resistance levels include the $1,932.27 AVWAP and a $1,938.27–$1,940.29 bid-wall zone [2][3]. This resistance zone aligns with a Fibonacci 38.2–61.8% confluence observed between $1,928.56 and $1,938.53 [4].
Order books currently show a bid-leaning imbalance with significant liquidity clusters. As of 17:55 UTC on November 13, the combined Coinbase spot and OKX perpetual order book displayed a +6.5% bid-leaning imbalance, indicating $118 million in depth within 1% of the current price [1]. Notable bids are $13.63 million at $1,938.27 and $10.99 million at $1,940.29, while significant asks are $15.08 million at $1,944.33 and $12.78 million at $1,942.31 [1]. Larger resting "whale walls" include buy walls of $44.3 million at $1,911.34 and $40.8 million at $1,892.34, with sell walls of $30.8 million at $1,959.66 and $51.0 million at $1,979.33 [2]. Regarding liquidations, only $1.4 million in short liquidations are present within +2% on Hyperliquid, whereas a substantial $44.8 million long liquidation magnet sits at $1,852 on the downside [5][2].
Short-term trends are positive, though longer-term trends remain bearish. While the 5-minute and 15-minute trends are currently upward, the 30-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour trends continue to show downward momentum, and the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oversold [6][7][8]. A loss of the $1,911 support level could open the path toward $1,892 and subsequently $1,864, whereas reclaiming the $1,939–$1,946 range might serve as an initial bullish trigger [3].
Sources (8)
  1. 1ETH · TerminalGremlinterminalgremlin.com
  2. 2Ethereum ETH Liquidation Heatmap & Liquidity Heatmap (ETHUSDT)pumpglass.com
  3. 3Ethereum (ETH) Today: Key Levels, Funding & Market Conditions | Discernment AIdiscernmentai.de
  4. 4Ethereum Technical Analysis Today (13 Nov) — ETH/USD at 1,953.46 · Support & Resistance | XenosFinancexenosfinance.com
  5. 5Ethereum (ETH) Liquidation Heatmap & Levels | LiqFlowliqflow.app
  6. 6Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysiscoinalyze.net
  7. 7Ethereum Sinks Below $2,000 as Inflation Data Spurs Liquidation Waveforexr.com
  8. 8Ethereum (ETH) Price Slides to $1,909 as $1.3 Billion Liquidation Wave Hits Cryptocoincentral.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

ETH traded around $1,921–1,940 on November 13, 2026, reaching an overnight low of $1,896, the lowest since August 18 [1][2][3][4]. Technical indicators are bearish: ETH sits below its 20/50/100-day EMAs, clustered at $2,200–2,320, with daily RSI around 25, signaling oversold conditions [5][6][7]. Support exists at $1,900–1,940, then $1,840/$1,827, with deeper targets at $1,706, $1,600, and $1,500 [5][6][7]. US October PPI, released November 13, recorded 6.5% YoY, the highest since November 2022, which pushed CME FedWatch odds for a 25bp December hike above 88–89% [6][2][8]. US spot ETH ETFs recorded their sixth consecutive day of net outflows, totaling $70.5M on November 12, contributing to October's $1.607B outflows [6][3][9][10]. Total crypto liquidations hit $1.64B over 24 hours, with 88.7% from long positions, including $289M in ETH [2].
Broader market risk aversion is evident. Jensen Huang's resignation as Nvidia CEO/President triggered an AI-stock sell-off, impacting crypto [6][7]. MSCI's November 30 removal of Strategy from the MSCI USA Index could force ~$2.8B in outflows [6][7]. Trump's Truth Social remark regarding no Iran deal also fueled renewed risk aversion [6][7]. Upcoming Nvidia earnings on Tuesday, November 17, are a key catalyst: a clean quarter with Bitcoin above $68,013 could propel ETH to $2,000–2,150, while a weak report or Bitcoin below $67,500 may drag ETH toward $1,800 [8][3][6]. Fed officials Susan Collins and Lorie Logan are speaking November 13, with PCE inflation due late November and the FOMC meeting December 8–9 [8]. Countering these pressures, 44.6M ETH is staked, 36.51% of supply, up from 36.36% on November 6, despite a 12.4% weekly price drop [3][11][12]. 15-min/1-hour momentum indicators show recovery, with 15-min RSI at 62 and price ~$1,962 at 12:46 UTC [3][11][12].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 13, 2026
  • Expiration: November 20, 2026
  • Closes: November 13, 2026
Sources (12)
  1. 1Bitcoin tumbles below $69,000 as Nvidia turmoil adds to Fed-driven market jitterstheblock.co
  2. 2Bitcoin falls below $70,000 as dollar surges and $1.6 billion liquidatedcoindesk.com
  3. 3Ethereum Price Forecast — ETH-USD ($1,933) $2,270 Upside Target on Record Staking and $2.35B ETF Outflowstradingnews.com
  4. 41,923.50 | ETH/USD | Spot | Crypto.com Exchangecrypto.com
  5. 5Ethereum, XRP, PI fall as US PPI inflation reaches 6.5%crypto.news
  6. 6Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH stays below $2,000, pressured by inflation and AI declinefxstreet.com
  7. 7The macro backdrop remains negative for Ethereum as Trump's Iran remarks fuel renewed risk aversioninvestinglive.com
  8. 8Markets Today - November 13, 2026nexo.com
  9. 9Major Crypto ETFs Bled $1.5 Billion While Wall Street Went Dip Shoppingfinance.yahoo.com
  10. 10Capital Flows: Bitcoin ETFs See Five Straight Days of Outflows as Stablecoin Supply Falls 4.85% in 30 Days · Goodman Macrogoodman-macro.com
  11. 11Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysiscoinalyze.net
  12. 12BITOK's ETH Bullish Analysis | Questflownext.questflow.ai

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXETH15M-26NOV131715-15: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26NOV131700-00: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26NOV131645-45: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26NOV131630-30: NO (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26NOV131615-15: NO (Nov 13, 2026)