Short Answer

The market considers ETH reaching the $1,929.18 target between 7:45 PM EST and 8:00 PM EST on November 13 unlikely, pricing it at 44%; the model, however, assigns a 64% probability.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • ETH $1,900 confirmed strong support on Nov 13 by $42.5 million buy wall. Prior long liquidations may have cleared, but no imminent short squeeze signaled.

Current Context

ETH dropped below $2,000 on widespread market weakness. On November 13, 2026, ETH fell below $2,000 for the first time since August, printing an intraday low of $1,894 on Bitstamp and $1,896–$1,905 on other feeds [1][2][3]. This represented a ~5.25% drop over 24 hours to approximately $1,940, and was ~31% below its late-September high near $2,800 [1][2][3]. The decline coincided with the US October PPI rising 6.5% year-over-year, the highest since November 2022, though below the 6.6% expected [4][1][5][2][3]. This data, released November 13 at 13:30 GMT, weighed on risk assets. US spot ETH ETFs lost ~$523.8M–$532M over five to six consecutive sessions through November 11, with BlackRock's ETHA experiencing ~$130M in outflows on November 11 and total net assets decreasing from $14.12B to $11.65B [4][1][5][2][3]. Broader risk-off sentiment included Bitcoin falling under $70,000 to approximately $69,000, the DXY climbing above 103, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's resignation [4][1][6]. Liquidations totaled ~$1.65B across crypto in 24 hours, with ETH accounting for ~$286.8–$288M, marking the second billion-dollar wipeout in eight days [1][2][3]. Concurrently, a record 44.6M ETH (36.51% of supply) was staked, up from 36.36% on November 6 [1][2][3].
Prediction markets showed varied sentiment for ETH's near-term trajectory. The specific 'ETH 15 min · $1,929.18 target' market for November 13, 2026, 7:45–8:00 PM EST, resolves Yes if the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks ETHUSDRTI before 8:00 PM EST was at least the average before 7:45 PM EST [7][8][9]. Adjacent 15-minute markets from that evening ($1,921.15 target, 7:30–7:45pm, resolved Yes at 88%; $1,922.87 target, 7:45–8:00pm, resolved Yes at 99%) indicated ETH settled above approximately $1,929 in that window [7][8][9]. Robinhood's November 13, 8pm EST ETH strikes reflected high probabilities for specific price levels, with $1,910+ at 97%, $1,915+ at 94%, and $1,920+ at 92% [10]. Expert support levels for ETH on November 13 ranged from $1,900–$1,940 to $1,800–$1,830, while resistance was cited between $1,971 and $2,250–$2,270 [4][1][5][2][3]. A deep bearish target of $1,500 was also noted [4][1][5][2][3]. Kalshi's ETH 15M series recorded $641.9M in 30-day volume over 2,852 events, though ContractTax found that 80 settled Kalshi crypto markets priced at 75¢+ settled Yes only 68.8% of the time, compared to an 86.6% implied probability [11][12].
Upcoming dates indicate continued market focus on ETH price action. November 14, 2026, includes 5pm EST strikes, with a base case range of $1,800–$2,000 [10][1]. Further strikes are scheduled for November 20, 5pm EST [10]. The CME ETH2611 futures contract has its last trade date on November 27, 2026 [13]. December 1 marks markets for November high/low, and December 31, 2026, will see year-end 'how high/low' markets, with 248,000 volume on the high market [10][1]. Fed December hike odds are also a watch item after the PPI release [10][1][13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Ethereum Price Crashes Below $2,000: How Low Can ETH Go?cryptoticker.io
  2. 2Ethereum Price Forecast — ETH-USD ($1,933) $2,270 Upside Target on Record Staking and $2.35B ETF Outflowstradingnews.com
  3. 3Ethereum Price Prediction: Are Whales Buying the Dip as ETH Falls 5%?coinedition.com
  4. 4Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH stays below $2,000, pressured by inflation and AI declinefxstreet.com
  5. 5Ethereum, XRP, PI fall as US PPI inflation reaches 6.5%crypto.news
  6. 6Cryptocurrencies price prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum & Cryptos – American Wrap 13 Novemberfxstreet.com
  7. 7ETH 15 min · $1,922.87 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  8. 8ETH 15 min · $1,921.15 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  9. 9November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 7:00–7:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  10. 10Crypto ETH Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  11. 11ETH 15M price up down — Kalshi Market Volume | TickerTrackerticker-tracker.com
  12. 12Kalshi Crypto Markets: Bitcoin & Ethereum Odds vs What Actually Settled | ContractTaxcontracttax.com
  13. 13CME Ether - Nov 2026(ETH2611) Contract Information | Trading Hours and Fees - Tiger Brokersitiger.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The provided content does not explicitly state the conditions that trigger a YES or NO resolution for the "ETH 15 min · $1,929.18 target" market. For settlement, the official and final value is determined by averaging 60 prices from CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), collected during the last minute before expiration. The market's max payout date is listed as November 13, 2026.

Market Discussion

Public discussion suggests that 15-minute ETH markets, particularly on Polymarket, may favor professional market makers and bots, with nearly 70% of traders realizing net losses, which fueled debate after taker fees were added in January 2026 [1]. Despite a specific Nov 13, 2026 market with a $1,929.91 target resolving "Down," recent data for Kalshi's 15-minute ETH markets shows a near 50/50 split of outcomes, with 51% resolving "up" over the last 24 hours [2][3][4]. Participants also highlight that venue settlement differences, such as distinct price sources used by Polymarket and Kalshi, can lead to conflicting market outcomes for the same window [4].

Sources (4)
  1. 1Polymarket Adds Taker Fees to 15-Minute Crypto Marketscryptotimes.io
  2. 2ETH 15 min · $1,927.91 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 5:45–6:00 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  4. 4Ethereum Up or Down 15 Minutes Odds | Polymarket & Kalshipredictmarketcap.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 73 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score25Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score73Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

5. What late-session catalysts, such as large ETF outflows or exchange inflows, could impact Ethereum's ability to hold its $1,900 support level leading into the 8:00 PM EST window on Nov 13?

Net ETH ETF Outflows$766.4M (through Nov 12, 2026) [1][2][3]
ETH Futures Liquidations$288M (within 24 hours on Nov 13) [3]
ETH Accumulated in Support Zone3.56M ETH (in $1,843-$1,900 range) [4]
Ethereum faced multiple bearish catalysts threatening its $1,900 support level on November 13, 2026, primarily the risk of a seventh consecutive day of U.S. spot ETH ETF outflows and any new hawkish macroeconomic news [1][5][6][7]. Through November 12, U.S. spot ETH ETFs had already recorded $766.4 million in net outflows over nine trading days, with BlackRock's ETHA being a significant contributor, making a seventh straight outflow day a substantial late-session concern [1][2][3]. Further adding to selling pressure, the Ethereum Foundation wallet sold 2,000 ETH, valued at approximately $3.87 million, and roughly $288 million of ETH futures, largely long positions, were liquidated within 24 hours on November 13, leading to a roughly 4% price drop [3]. The ETH/BTC ratio also declined to approximately 0.0229, indicating relative weakness and a rotation of capital towards Bitcoin [4].
Despite significant selling pressure, Ethereum exhibited resilient support near $1,900. On-chain data revealed a strong support zone where approximately 3.56 million ETH had accumulated in the $1,843–$1,900 price range [4]. A whale also accumulated $19.9 million in ETH on November 13, while analysts identified the $1,850–$1,950 demand zone as a crucial area to monitor for price stability [8]. Although ETH traded near $1,933 after falling below $2,000 on November 13, 2026, prediction markets indicated that ETH was expected to remain well above $1,900 in the 7:45–8:00 PM EST window, with a target of $1,929.18 being the most likely outcome [9][2][10][11]. A successful defense of the $1,850–$1,950 zone is considered critical for a potential recovery, whereas a breakdown would weaken its short-term market structure [8].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Ethereum (ETH) ETF Flows November 2026: Daily Net Inflowscryptodataapi.com
  2. 2Ethereum Price Forecast — ETH-USD ($1,933) $2,270 Upside Target on Record Staking and $2.35B ETF Outflowstradingnews.com
  3. 3Ethereum price prediction: Foundation sells, ETFs bleedcryptoticker.io
  4. 4Ethereum Faces Crucial Support at $1,900: Can It Hold or Will It Break? - OKBTCokbtc.org
  5. 5Major Crypto ETFs Bled $1.5 Billion While Wall Street Went Dip Shoppingfinance.yahoo.com
  6. 6ETH 15 min · $2,359.18 target - Result: No | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 7November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 7:00–7:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  8. 8Ethereum Whale Adds $19.9M In ETH As ETH Price Outlook Signals Recoverytronweekly.com
  9. 9Ethereum Price Below $2K: ETF Outflows Near $532M in Six Daysthecoinrepublic.com
  10. 10ETH price range on Nov 13, 2026 at 8pm EST?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  11. 11Ethereum price Today at 8:00 pm ET Prediction & Odds - Ethereum - OG.comog.com

6. How does real-time order book depth on Coinbase and Binance either support or refute the key technical levels for ETH, such as the $1,900 support and $1,971 resistance, on November 13?

Primary Buy Wall$42.5M at $1,892.34, with 73% from Binance (Nov 13) [1]
Primary Sell Wall$33.4M at $1,930.52, with 36% from Binance (Nov 13) [1]
Largest Bid Wall (ETH Futures)$1,912 (Nov 13) [2]
On November 13, real-time order book depth confirmed $1,900 as strong support. A substantial buy wall of $42.5 million was identified at $1,892.34, with 73% of this liquidity stemming from Binance, reinforcing the $1,900 support level [1]. Coinbase's spot order book also indicated modest buy-side depth within the $1,900–$1,920 range [3], while the ETH perpetual futures order book displayed its largest bid wall at $1,912 [2]. The aggregated spot order book heatmap further validated $1,900 as the most significant support wall [4], and intraday price action subsequently confirmed this support held [5][6][7].
The $1,971 level did not function as significant resistance on November 13. Order book depth data showed resistance at a much lower level, and the aggregated spot order book heatmap displayed no visible wall at $1,971 [2][4]. Instead, a sell wall of $33.4 million was observed at $1,930.52, with 36% originating from Binance, indicating sell pressure well below the $1,971 mark [1]. Although previous analyses had identified $1,971 as 'immediate support', ETH's closing price of approximately $1,927 on November 13 meant this level had already been breached, acting as broken support-turned-resistance rather than an active resistance point [8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Ethereum ETH Liquidation Heatmap & Liquidity Heatmap (ETHUSDT)pumpglass.com
  2. 2Ethereum levels today: walls and Positioning · Swiftedgeswiftedge.uk
  3. 3OKX Ether Perpetual Book Shows an $888,000 Sell-Side Leadtokenpost.com
  4. 4Ethereum Order Book Heatmap — Live ETH Liquidity | In-Cryptoin-crypto.app
  5. 5Ethereum (ETH) tarixiy narxlari va Ethereum bepul tarixiy ma'lumotlarni CSV formatida yuklab oling | Bitgetbitget.com
  6. 6以太坊价格历史-ETH历史价格行情回顾 - BitKan.combitkan.com
  7. 7ETH prediction market runs through Nov. 13coinography.com
  8. 8Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH Tests $1,970 as Selling Pressure Deepensaafx.io
  9. 9Ethereum Slides Toward $2K as BitMine Posts $6.3B Loss - CVJ.AIcvj.ai

7. How did the composition of ETH liquidations on November 13 compare to the prior billion-dollar event, specifically concerning the ratio of long-to-short positions liquidated on Bybit and OKX?

Bybit ETH Long % (Nov 13)93% longs [1][2][3][4]
OKX ETH Long % (Nov 13)73–79% longs [1][2][3][4]
Bybit ETH Long % (June 2, 2026)93% longs [5]
Bybit's November 13 ETH liquidations were significantly more long-concentrated than OKX. On this day, Bybit recorded approximately 93% long positions, totaling an estimated $23.0–25.0 million in longs against approximately $1.7 million in shorts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of about 13.5:1 [1][2][3][4]. In contrast, OKX's ETH liquidations consisted of roughly 73–79% long positions, with a corresponding ratio of approximately 2.7–3.7:1 [1][2][3][4]. Market-wide ETH liquidations on November 13 reached $289 million, with 89.5% attributed to long positions [6].
Bybit consistently demonstrated a high concentration of long liquidations across events. The composition of Bybit's liquidations on November 13, showing approximately 93% longs, was nearly identical to its profile during a prior significant ETH-relevant liquidation event on June 2, 2026 [5]. On that earlier date, Bybit also registered approximately 93% longs from its $247 million in total liquidations, suggesting a recurring pattern of long-heavy flush compositions for the platform [5]. However, a direct comparison for OKX's liquidation composition between these two events is not feasible, as its long-to-short ratio for the June 2, 2026, event was not specified in the available information.
Sources (6)
  1. 1Ethereum (ETH) Liquidations in the Last 24 Hoursswolecharts.com
  2. 2Ethereum Liquidations | Real-Time Long/Short Ratio - CoinBosscoinboss.com
  3. 3Liquidations ETH (Ethereum) — TRdesktrdesk.com
  4. 4Ethereum (ETH) Liquidations, Funding Rate, Open Interest | Liqwallliqwall.com
  5. 5Bullish crypto bets lose $1.6 billion as ETH, SOL, DOGE drop 9% | Bitget Newsbitget.com
  6. 6Bitcoin falls below $70,000 as dollar surges and $1.6 billion liquidatedcoindesk.com

8. Which public APIs provide real-time data for the CF Benchmarks ETHUSDRTI, and how does this index's pricing typically deviate from the spot price on Coinbase during high-volatility periods?

ETHUSD_RTI tick rateApproximately one per second [1]
High-volatility price deviationApproximately 30 basis points [2]
Calculation frequencyAbout every 200ms [3]
The ETHUSD_RTI is accessible through several real-time data providers. This real-time index's data is made available via platforms including Kalshi's CF Benchmarks Value Feed WebSocket, the CF Benchmarks' own REST API, Coin Metrics' API, and IPC Systems' Connexus Cloud [1][4][5][6]. For instance, the authenticated Kalshi WebSocket delivers ETHUSD_RTI ticks at an approximate rate of one per second [1]. The index itself is computed roughly every 200 milliseconds, integrating and reconciling order books from seven constituent exchanges, one of which is Coinbase [3].
High volatility typically causes ETHUSD_RTI to deviate 30 basis points from Coinbase. During periods of elevated market volatility, the ETHUSD_RTI's pricing generally deviates from Coinbase spot prices by approximately 30 basis points [2]. This magnitude is consistent with established cross-source price deviation benchmarks for continuous crypto price feeds, which typically range from 5–20 basis points but can expand to around 30 basis points during rapid market movements [2]. Traders have observed that even a minor 0.05% lead or lag between Coinbase and a composite price can influence the timing of momentum signals relative to Kalshi settlement [7]. For example, a market event on November 13, 2026, occurred during a session characterized by high volatility and a downtrend [8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1CF Benchmarks Value Feeddocs.kalshi.com
  2. 2Which crypto price oracle is the most accurate in 2026?openchainbench.com
  3. 3CME CF Cryptocurrency Real Time Indicesdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  4. 4REST API | CF Benchmarks APIdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  5. 5CoinDesk API Alternatives: 7 Crypto Data Feeds Compared in 2026coinmarketcap.com
  6. 6IPC Systems Taps ICE’s Cryptocurrency Price Feeds | Finance Magnatesfinancemagnates.com
  7. 7python-bot/rti_feed.pygithub.com
  8. 8Crypto ETH Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  9. 9Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysiscoinalyze.net

9. What shifts in ETH perpetual futures funding rates and open interest on Binance and Bybit would signal a potential short squeeze or further sell-off during the Nov 13 evening session?

Binance 8-hour Funding Rate+0.0024% (at ~22:35 UTC on Nov 13, 2026) [1]
Bybit Funding Rate+0.0042% (at ~22:35 UTC on Nov 13, 2026) [1]
ETH Long Liquidations$12.62M (on Nov 13) [2]
Current market conditions do not indicate an imminent ETH short squeeze. A short squeeze would typically be signaled by Binance funding rates turning negative, such as below -0.01%, accompanied by abnormal increases in open interest (OI) [3]. However, as of November 13, 2026, funding rates on major exchanges like Binance and Bybit were positive, with Binance's 8-hour rate at +0.0024% and Bybit's at +0.0042% around 22:35 UTC [1][4][5][6]. These positive rates, where long positions pay shorts, contradict the negative funding conditions characteristic of a short squeeze [3]. Additionally, the liquidation of $12.62 million in ETH long positions earlier on November 13 suggests that price declines were driven by long flushes, rather than short attacks, further arguing against an imminent short squeeze [2].
Signs of a further sell-off are mixed, with some indicators present. A significant sell-off or long cascade would be indicated by a sharp drop in OI, such as -15%, and funding turning negative on Binance, for example, -0.004% [3][7]. While total perpetual OI across seven exchanges showed a 4.58% decrease in 24 hours, reaching $16.74 billion by approximately 22:35 UTC on November 13, 2026 [1], the combined OI on Binance, Bybit, and OKX only registered a 0.27% decrease in the hour ending 23:13 UTC, suggesting positions remained relatively steady rather than experiencing a sharp drop [5]. Furthermore, at 23:13 UTC, Binance funding was +0.0018% per 8 hours and Bybit was +0.0039%, both remaining positive, which contrasts with the negative funding usually observed during sell-offs [5][3]. The day's price decline was primarily driven by long liquidations, indicating continued downside risk as long positions remain crowded, with top Binance traders 81% long [2][5]. A confirmed sell-off would require OI to continue falling and price to tag the $1,914.31 support level [8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1ETH Open Interest $16.74B, Funding Rate, Liquidations | TradRadartradradar.io
  2. 2Ether Long Liquidations Reach $12.62 Million as Price Falls | EconoTimeseconotimes.com
  3. 3AI Bot for Altcoin Short Squeeze Strategy Monitoring Abnormal Signalsokxairdrop.hashnode.dev
  4. 4ETHUSDT funding rate, open interest and mark price | Fibonomyfibonomy.com
  5. 5Ethereum (ETH) Today: Key Levels, Funding & Market Conditions | Discernment AIdiscernmentai.de
  6. 6Crypto Funding and Volume — 13 November 2026perpdesk.net
  7. 7Ethereum Derivatives Flash Warning: Open Interest Drops 15%, Funding Goes Negativecryptopotato.com
  8. 8November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 7:00–7:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

ETH traded at $1,922.16, down 5.7% over 24 hours, early Nov 13 after falling below $2,000, with $259.12M in ETH liquidations (90.7% longs, $234.91M) reported by CoinGlass at 05:27 UTC [1]. US spot ETH ETFs recorded $144.8M net outflows on Nov 11 and $70.57M on Nov 12, extending a 6-day streak that totaled $556.2M over 7 days and $2.3B over 30 days. November outflows reached $695.9M through Nov 11, following a record $1.61B outflow in October [1][2][3]. An Ethereum Foundation-linked wallet sold 2,000 ETH (~$3.87M USDS at ~$1,935) via CoW Swap on Nov 13, marking its fourth sale in three days for a total of 4,000 ETH [4]. The Ethereum staking exit queue grew to 269,951 ETH on Nov 13 from 4,320 ETH on Nov 6, adding sell-side pressure, while gas fees at multi-month lows of 0.05–0.5 gwei signal weak on-chain demand [2][3].
The US October PPI, released Nov 13 at 8:30 AM ET, showed 6.5% YoY annual producer inflation, compared to 6.3% in September, with a smaller-than-expected 0.3% monthly rise [5][4][6]. ETH was near $1,951–$1,958 intraday following the release [5]. Technically, $1,896, the Nov 13 low, represents critical support for the 15-minute window, with $2,020 as first resistance. A daily close below $1,896 invalidates the near-term floor, and recovery requires a move above $2,040 [5][3]. Broader macro headwinds include the Nov 11 resignation of Nvidia co-founder/CEO Jensen Huang, announced Nov 12, which saw Nvidia shares fall 4.3% [1]. Fed Governor Waller floated a December half-point hike, and NY Fed's Williams stated 'we still have a lot of work to do' on inflation Nov 12 [1].
Key events on Nov 13 included the 08:00 GMT Deribit weekly BTC/ETH options expiry, which could introduce short-term volatility, and a public conversation with Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman at 15:50 GMT [7][8][9]. The Nov 13, 2026 7:45–8:00 PM EST ETH 15-minute market targets $1,929.18 [10][11]. Prediction markets for this window indicate the $1,929.18 target sits just below the market's median expectation; Kalshi's 50/50 line was at $1,930 (42% odds), and OG.com priced 'Above $1,930' at 43% and 'Above $1,920' at 71%, implying a near-coin-flip outcome with a slight lean towards the 'Yes' outcome [12][13].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 14, 2026
  • Expiration: November 21, 2026
  • Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (13)
  1. 1Why Is Ethereum Price Down Today? ETH Crashes Below $2,000 as $259M Liquidatedcryptotimes.io
  2. 2Ethereum price at $1,958: staking exit queue growscryptoticker.io
  3. 3ETH Slides Below $2,000: ETF Outflows Hit 6-Day Streak as Network Activity Hits Multi-Month Lows — November 14, 2026 | AInvestainvest.com
  4. 4Ethereum News: ETH Falls 4.7% As Whales Dump Millionscoingabbar.com
  5. 5Ethereum, XRP, PI fall as US PPI inflation reaches 6.5%crypto.news
  6. 6Current price of Ethereum for Nov. 13, 2026 | Fortunefortune.com
  7. 7Key Events in the Crypto Market This Week – Second Week of Novembercoinmax.news
  8. 8Crypto Market Outlook This Week (Nov. 9–15): CPI, PPI and Solana Breakpoint in Focus | Gate Bloggate.com
  9. 9This Week’s Crypto Market Calendar – Second Week of November | KuCoinkucoin.com
  10. 10November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 7:00–7:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  11. 11November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 5:45–6:00 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  12. 12ETH price on Nov 13, 2026 at 8pm EST? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  13. 13Ethereum price Today at 8:00 pm ET Prediction & Odds - Ethereum - OG.comog.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXETH15M-26NOV131945-45: NO (Nov 14, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26NOV131930-30: YES (Nov 14, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26NOV131915-15: YES (Nov 14, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26NOV131900-00: YES (Nov 14, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26NOV131845-45: YES (Nov 13, 2026)