Short Answer

ETH reaching $1,931.08 between 7:30PM EST and 7:45PM EST on November 13 is considered unlikely by the market, which prices this outcome at 23.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • ETH targeting $1,931.08 reflects its earlier $1,933.27 trading on November 13.
  • Bearish pressure from ETF outflows and significant liquidations kept ETH below $2,000.

Current Context

The prediction market targets a $1,931.08 ETH price increase during a specific 15-minute window. The market queried is an ETH contract for November 13, 2026, 7:30–7:45 PM EST, resolving Yes if CF Benchmarks' ETHUSDRTI 60-second average at 7:45 PM EST is at or above the average before 7:30 PM EST ($1,931.08 strike) [1][2]. Adjacent contracts on that day used near-identical strikes: $1,930.82 for 7:15–7:30 PM and $1,931.02 for 12:30–12:45 PM [1][2]. A similar Kalshi 15-minute market with a $1,931.93 target earlier that morning (8:30–8:45 AM) resolved No at 96% [3]. On November 13, ETH traded at $1,933.27 at 11:00 AM ET, down 3.69% on the day, 12.4% on the week, and 39.53% over the year [4]. Sources indicated ETH broke below $2,000 for the first time since August, with an overnight low of $1,896 (composite $1,905), its weakest level since August 18 [4]. Reported data showed a 24-hour high of $2,044.13, and the daily close ranged from approximately $1,926 to $1,941 [4][5][6]. BitKan data presented a daily open of $2,019.62, high of $2,021.21, low of $1,898.00, and close of $1,926.03 [5]. For the 7:30–7:45 PM EST window, sources indicated ETH traded in the low-$1,930s, near the $1,931.08 strike [5][4][2].
Macroeconomic factors and significant outflows were noted on November 13, coinciding with ETH's price movements. US spot Ether ETFs experienced a sixth consecutive day of outflows, losing $70.57M on Thursday, November 13, following a record $1.607B in October. Total outflows reached approximately $2.35B over seven weeks [4][7][8]. Despite a 12.4% price decline on the week, a record 44.6M ETH (36.51% of supply) was staked on November 12, an increase from 36.36% on November 6 [4][7][8]. US October PPI rose 6.5% year-over-year, the highest since November 2022, and 0.3% month-over-month, pushing Fed December rate-hike odds above 89% [7][9][4]. The 10-year Treasury yield, at 5.16%, sat 251 basis points above ETH's 2.65% staking yield, with the dollar at a 19-month high and stablecoin supply down $14.2B [7][9][4]. Macro risk-off sentiment was fueled by Trump's Truth Social remark regarding Iran and Jensen Huang's resignation as Nvidia CEO/President, which triggered an AI-stock sell-off that extended to crypto [10][7][9]. ETH traded as part of a broader risk complex alongside Bitcoin and AI stocks, with the S&P 500 falling 0.4% and Nasdaq 0.9% on Friday [10][7][9].
Analysts present a mixed outlook for ETH, while prediction markets show a preference for lower levels. FXStreet's Michael Ebiekutan views ETH as bearish below $2,000, with support at $1,827 if $1,971 fails, and resistance at $1,971, $2,101, $2,204, and $2,250 [7][9]. TradingNews's Itai Smidt targets a $2,270 upside (17.4% from $1,933) with $1,800 downside risk [4]. Analyst Ella flagged $1,900–$1,940 as a buyer zone, with $1,840 as the next level if $1,900 is lost [7][9][4][11]. Alex Marzell and Culper Research target $1,500 on a death-cross setup, invalidated above approximately $2,157 [8][10]. InvestingLive's Giuseppe Dellamotta observes buyers at $1,900, with risk below $1,850, targeting $3,400 on a rally or $1,500 on a break [7][9][4][10]. Prediction market odds around November 13–14 indicated an 81.5–83.5% chance of ETH touching $2,000 in November, 80–87% for $1,900, 43.5–45.5% for $1,800, 47.5–48.5% for $2,100, 26.5–27.5% for $2,200, and 7.5% for $2,400 [12][13][14][15][16]. A separate market on whether ETH would dip to $1,900 in November showed No at 56% and Yes at 44%, with smart money leaning No [15]. As of November 9, the November board was priced for a $2,000 wick (63.5¢) over a $2,400 rebound (32.5¢) [16]. Key upcoming dates include the Fed December 2026 meeting (with rate-hike odds above 89%), MSCI's removal of Strategy from the MSCI USA Index by November 30, 2026, which JPMorgan projects could result in $2.8B outflows, and Polymarket's November ETH event lock at 11:59 PM ET on November 30/December 1, 2026 [7][9][13][17][18]. The Ethereum Glamsterdam upgrade is targeted for Q4/December 2026 but remains unconfirmed pending testnet results [7][9][13][17][18].
Sources (18)
  1. 1November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 12:30–12:45 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 7:15–7:30 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  3. 3ETH 15 min · $1,931.93 target - Result: No | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Ethereum Price Forecast — ETH-USD ($1,933) $2,270 Upside Target on Record Staking and $2.35B ETF Outflowstradingnews.com
  5. 5以太坊价格历史-ETH历史价格行情回顾 - BitKan.combitkan.com
  6. 6Ethereum Price History & Download ETH Price Data for Any Datebitgetapp.com
  7. 7Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH stays below $2,000, pressured by inflation and AI declinemitrade.com
  8. 8Analyst who warned about Nvidia and Jensen Huang flagged Ethereum priceinvezz.com
  9. 9Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH stays below $2,000, pressured by inflation and AI declinefxstreet.com
  10. 10The macro backdrop remains negative for Ethereum as Trump's Iran remarks fuel renewed risk aversioninvestinglive.com
  11. 11Ethereum, XRP, PI fall as US PPI inflation reaches 6.5%crypto.news
  12. 12Ethereum Price Prediction 2026coingecko.com
  13. 13What price will Ethereum hit in November Odds & Prediction Market Analysis | CryptoSlatecryptoslate.com
  14. 14What price will Ethereum hit in November? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Marketsthepredictionmarkets.com
  15. 15Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in November? — No 56% on Polymarket, smart money & tape · Polydunepolydune.com
  16. 16Ethereum's November Board Isn't Priced for a Moonshot. It's Priced for a $2,000 Wick. | AInvestainvest.com
  17. 17BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP and SOL: What Traders Should Watch in Q4 2026cryptonews.net
  18. 18Crypto Summer 2026: Whale Seasonality Patterns, ETF Milestones & On-Chain Signalsdeepbluealpha.io

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the official and final ETH price is $1,931.08 or higher at 7:45 PM ET on November 13. Conversely, it resolves NO if the price is less than $1,931.08 at that time. The final value is determined by averaging 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices from CF Benchmarks, collected during the last minute before the 7:45 PM ET expiration.

Market Discussion

On November 13, 2026, a Robinhood 'ETH 15 min' market with a $1,931.02 target was priced at 86% Yes [1]. A related Kalshi market with a $1,927.91 target resolved Yes at 91% on November 14, 2026 [2]. However, public commentary from around November 13–14, 2026, on platforms like TradingView, Binance Square, and Reddit was predominantly bearish, citing ETH rejection at higher levels and proposing profit targets down to $1,900 or below due to weak buying pressure and macro-bearish sentiment [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 12:30–12:45 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2ETH 15 min · $1,927.91 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3Ethereum / U.S. dollar Forum & Chats (BITSTAMP:ETHUSD) – TradingView Mindstradingview.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 78 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score51Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score78Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
84Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
65Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

1 contract

Target Price: $1,931.0865
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Target Price: $1,931.08—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $1,931.0895
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
51Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 65 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 1.9c slippage (~7% of a 25.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 3.8c slippage (~15% of a 25.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Target Price: $1,931.08Primary65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 14, 2026

5. How do order book imbalances around the $1,900 support and $1,971 resistance levels impact ETH's intraday volatility on November 13?

Intraday Volatility Range$108.18 (1.1x ATR(14)) [1]
Biggest Support Wall$1,900 (3,245 ETH) [2]
Key Overhead Resistance$1,971 [2][1]
ETH experienced elevated intraday volatility on November 13. The asset saw a $108.18 range, which was 1.1 times its 14-day Average True Range (ATR(14)), resulting in a 6.6% price swing [1][3][4]. This volatility was largely influenced by order book imbalances around crucial support and resistance levels, further intensified by thin order-book depth. A significant support wall was identified at $1,900, holding 3,245 ETH, closely aligning with a pivot S3 support at $1,896.70 [2][1]. ETH reached an overnight low of $1,896 (offshore) or $1,905 (composite) that day [3]. Towards the late evening, substantial buy-side spot depth and bid walls between $1,912–$1,920 provided stabilization, helping to maintain ETH above the $1,931.08 target price [5][6][7][8].
Resistance levels and shifting order book sentiment influenced ETH's price. Analysts pinpointed $1,971 as a critical overhead barrier, along with a pivot S2 resistance at $1,939.41 [2][1]. Earlier in the day, resistance walls at $1,965 and $1,960 were successfully breached [2]. However, later in the evening, upward price movement was constrained by an ask wall at $1,922 (containing 5,386 ETH) and estimated upper liquidation walls around $1,935, specifically in the $1,932–$1,935 range [5][6][7][8]. While an early morning snapshot on OKX's perpetual book indicated an ~$888K sell-side lead [9], a subsequent 22:00 UTC review across six exchanges revealed a bid-dominant depth, with $20.7 million in bids against $17.6 million in asks within a ±0.5% range, signaling a shift in market sentiment [6].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH stays below $2,000, pressured by inflation and AI declinemitrade.com
  2. 2Ethereum Order Book Heatmap — Live ETH Liquidity | In-Cryptoin-crypto.app
  3. 3Ethereum Price Forecast — ETH-USD ($1,933) $2,270 Upside Target on Record Staking and $2.35B ETF Outflowstradingnews.com
  4. 4Ethereum Sinks Below $2,000 as Inflation Data Spurs Liquidation Waveforexr.com
  5. 5Ethereum levels today: walls and Positioning · Swiftedgeswiftedge.uk
  6. 6BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE and AVAX spot order book heatmap across six exchangesfuelmaps.io
  7. 7Ethereum price | index, chart and news | WorldCoinIndexworldcoinindex.com
  8. 8以太坊价格历史-ETH历史价格行情回顾 - BitKan.combitkan.com
  9. 9OKX Ether Perpetual Book Shows an $888,000 Sell-Side Leadtokenpost.com

6. Do the persistent US spot Ether ETF outflows and 89% Fed rate-hike odds for December validate the bearish technical outlook for ETH below $2,000?

ETH price (Nov 13, 2026)$1,925-1,933 [1]
US spot ETH ETF outflows (Oct 2026)$1.61B [1]
Probability of Dec 2026 Fed rate hike89% [2]
Ethereum's price dropped below $2,000 amid significant liquidations. Ethereum (ETH) experienced a notable decline on November 13, 2026, dropping below the $2,000 threshold to trade near $1,925-1,933, representing a 4-6% decrease within 24 hours [1]. This price movement was accompanied by approximately $249.8 million in ETH liquidations, primarily long positions, and technical indicators, such as a daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 24.09, suggested oversold market conditions [1]. The prevailing bearish technical structure for ETH includes trading below its 20, 50, and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), characterized by the formation of lower highs and lower lows, with key support identified at $1,900 [3].
Market downturns were driven by sustained ETF outflows and rate hike expectations. The broader market downturn was primarily influenced by persistent US spot Ether ETF outflows and an increased probability of a December Federal Reserve rate hike [1]. US spot ETH ETFs recorded approximately $531.9 million in net outflows over six sessions from November 5-12, 2026, marking a sixth consecutive weekly outflow streak and bringing total outflows to roughly $2 billion since early October [1]. Concurrently, following an October Consumer Price Index (CPI) print of 0.4%, the CME FedWatch tool indicated an 89% probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike at the December 9, 2026 meeting [2]. This situation is described as a two-sided liquidity crunch, which is anticipated to impact cryptocurrency markets first [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Ethereum Price Below $2K: ETF Outflows Near $532M in Six Daysthecoinrepublic.com
  2. 2Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH falls to $2,000 following October's hot CPI printfxstreet.com
  3. 3Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH falls below $2,000 as Nvidia's Jensen Huang resignsfxstreet.com
  4. 4Fed December Hike Meets AI Correction: A Two-Sided Liquidity Crunch That Hits Crypto First | AInvestainvest.com

7. How do the short-term price targets from FXStreet ($1,827 support) and TradingNews ($2,270 upside) compare based on their underlying assumptions for November?

FXStreet Downside Support$1,827 (FXStreet) [1]
TradingNews Upside Target$2,270 (TradingNews) [2]
Record ETH Staking44.6M ETH (36.51% of supply) [2]
FXStreet and TradingNews offer divergent Ethereum price outlooks for November, starting from an ETH price of approximately $1,930-$1,940 on November 13, 2026. FXStreet identified a key downside support level at $1,827, while TradingNews set a primary upside target of $2,270. Both analyses acknowledged $2,000 and the $2,250-$2,270 zone as critical price levels and cited ETF outflows as a factor, though they differed on its implications [1][2][3].
FXStreet's bearish forecast assumed continued macro pressure, targeting $1,827 support if ETH failed to recover $1,971, with further support anticipated at $1,706 and $1,600. This perspective was largely driven by October's 6.5% year-over-year Producer Price Index (PPI), high probabilities of a December Federal Reserve rate hike, and ETH trading below the on-chain cost basis across all wallet cohorts. Technically, FXStreet noted that ETH remained below key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic indicators suggesting deeply oversold conditions, implying that any rallies would face capping from persistent macro headwinds [1].
TradingNews's bullish target relies on strong on-chain indicators, identifying its $2,270 upside target as the top of a significant overhead cost-basis concentration, representing a potential 17.4% gain. Its optimistic case was built on record staking of 44.6 million ETH, constituting 36.51% of the total supply, continuous buying and staking activity by Bitmine, a substantial liquidation flush accompanied by negative funding rates, extreme fear sentiment in the market, and potential macro catalysts. TradingNews set its downside risk at $1,800. The core divergence between the two analyses lies in whether forced selling has exhausted, which TradingNews suggests for a bullish scenario, or if macro rate-hike pressure persists, as FXStreet posits. Broader November prediction markets indicated roughly 64% odds for ETH dipping to $2,000 and about 54% for touching $2,300 by November 30, suggesting the market was contemplating both scenarios [2][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH stays below $2,000, pressured by inflation and AI declinefxstreet.com
  2. 2Ethereum Price Forecast — ETH-USD ($1,933) $2,270 Upside Target on Record Staking and $2.35B ETF Outflowstradingnews.com
  3. 3Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH falls to $2,000 following October's hot CPI printfxstreet.com
  4. 4What price will Ethereum hit in November?polymarket.com
  5. 5Ethereum Just Blew Through $2,100. This November Bet Pays on the Month's Peak, Not the Closeainvest.com

8. Does the record 44.6M ETH staked provide a strong enough demand floor to counteract the bearish pressure from ETF outflows in November 2026?

Record ETH Staked44.6M ETH (Nov 12, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5]
ETH Price Target$1,931.08 (Nov 13, 2026, 7:30-7:45 PM EST) [1][3][4][5]
Cumulative ETF Outflows$2.35B (seven weeks through early Nov 2026) [6][7][8][9]
Record ETH staking failed to prevent price decline against ETF outflows. Despite a record 44.6 million ETH staked by November 12, 2026, Ethereum's price struggled to consistently surpass the $1,931.08 target during the November 13, 2026, 7:30–7:45 PM EST market window due to persistent ETF-driven selling [1][2][3][4][5]. Analysts indicated that while staking removes coins from active trading, it does not introduce new fiat bids capable of counteracting ETF redemptions. This dynamic led to a consensus that record staking could only 'slow the decline but does not carry a reversal' [6][7][8][10][11].
Significant ETF outflows pushed Ethereum below $2,000, signaling further bearish pressure. On November 13, 2026, ETH dipped below $2,000 for the first time since August 19, with intraday trading hovering around $1,933 and oscillating near the $1,931.08 strike [7][9][12][1][3][4][5]. This decline was exacerbated by substantial US spot ETH ETF outflows, totaling $695.9 million over the first eight trading days of November 2026, contributing to cumulative seven-week outflows of $2.35 billion [6][7][8][9]. Concurrently, the validator exit queue reached 258,309 ETH on November 12, suggesting some long-term stakers were beginning to withdraw, even though net inflows were three times higher than outflows. Analysts cautioned that a sustained exit queue above 300,000 ETH would signal a weakening demand floor, with technical indicators pointing to potential further drops towards $1,827 and $1,500 [6][7][8][10][11][13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 7:15–7:30 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2ETH 15 min · $1,931.93 target - Result: No | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3ETH 15 min · $1,922.87 target - Result: Yes | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Ethereum Price History & Historical Data - Investing.com AUau.investing.com
  5. 5Ethereum (ETH) tarixiy narxlari va Ethereum bepul tarixiy ma'lumotlarni CSV formatida yuklab oling | Bitgetbitget.com
  6. 6Ethereum price below $2,000: record staking vs ETF outflowscryptoticker.io
  7. 7Ethereum Price Forecast — ETH-USD ($1,933) $2,270 Upside Target on Record Staking and $2.35B ETF Outflowstradingnews.com
  8. 8Why Did Ethereum Fall Below $2,000? ETF Flows & Staking Databydfi.com
  9. 9Ethereum Price Below $2K: ETF Outflows Near $532M in Six Daysthecoinrepublic.com
  10. 10Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH stays below $2,000, pressured by inflation and AI declinemitrade.com
  11. 11Analyst who warned about Nvidia and Jensen Huang flagged Ethereum priceinvezz.com
  12. 12ETH prediction market runs through Nov. 13coinography.com
  13. 13Ether Slips Below $2,000 as Staking Hits Record, ETFs Bleed - CVJ.AIcvj.ai

9. How does Polymarket's ~83% probability for ETH touching $2,000 in November compare to the sentiment from the derivatives market's put/call ratios?

ETH $2,000 by Nov 2026 Probability83.5% [1]
Deribit Nov 13, 2026 Put/Call Ratio2.01:1 [2]
Overall Deribit Put/Call Ratio0.54 [2]
Polymarket shows strong long-term bullish sentiment for Ethereum. Polymarket data indicated an 83.5% probability of ETH reaching $2,000 by the end of November 2026 [1]. This optimism, however, contrasts with a prevailing short-term bearish sentiment observed in the derivatives market, particularly around the November 13, 2026 expiry. For this specific expiry, Deribit showed puts outnumbering calls by 2.01:1, with a significant concentration of 48,461 ETH puts at the $2,000 strike price [2]. Other data points, such as Greeks.live on November 12, 2026, also noted an ETH put/call ratio of 1.55, further indicating heavy bearish positioning for the short term [3]. A specific Polymarket for Ethereum touching $2,000 on November 13 had only a 3.2% implied probability, reinforcing this short-term bearish outlook for that precise day [4].
Broader derivatives market trends suggest short-term bearishness may be an outlier. Despite the strong bearish indicators for the November 13 expiry, the broader derivatives market suggested a different picture. Across all Deribit maturities, calls were dominant, with an overall put/call ratio of 0.54, implying the put-heavy November 13 expiry was likely an outlier reflecting short-term hedging strategies rather than a structural bearish trend [2]. On November 13, 2026, the 24-hour put/call volume ratio was 1.23, with puts leading trading activity [5]. Analysts also noted a $589 million short-gamma pocket near $1,980 and a negative gamma peak at $2,000, which, combined with a put wall, could amplify price movements [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Ethereum Price Prediction 2026coingecko.com
  2. 2Ethereum options expiry: puts outnumber calls two to onecryptoticker.io
  3. 3$2.8B BTC & ETH Options Expiry Nov 13: Max Pain Levels & Put | Phemex Newsphemex.com
  4. 4Refacto Terminalterminal.refacto.app
  5. 5[ETH options daily] Open interest falls to $5.22 billion; $1,800 puts lead trading | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  6. 6Ethereum faces potential selling pressure near $1,980 as dealer gamma shiftscryptobriefing.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

ETH traded at $1,933.27 at 11:00 AM ET on Nov 13, 2026, down 3.69% over 24 hours after hitting an overnight low of $1,896. It had fallen 14.26% over the prior week to ~$1,925 [1][2]. Bullish signals included a record 44.6M ETH (36.51% of supply) staked on Nov 12, up from 36.36% on Nov 6 despite a 12.4% weekly price drop [1]. Whales 0x4cee ($19.91M, 10,380 ETH) and Chun ($11.09M, 5,746 ETH) bought $31.0M total, against only $3.87M sold by an Ethereum Foundation-linked wallet [1][3]. Price action into the 7:30 PM EST window showed ETH targets climbing from $1,917.67 (6:15–6:30 PM EST, 40¢) to $1,930.82 (7:15–7:30 PM EST, 82¢), suggesting momentum [4][5][6]. This upward grind had the 7:15–7:30 PM window trading at 82¢ on a $1,930.82 target, implying some pullback risk [6]. Conversely, U.S. spot ETH ETFs recorded six straight outflow days, totaling $594.5M from November 5–12, and $2.35B withdrawn over seven weeks [1][2]. October PPI hit 6.5% YoY, the highest since November 2022, leading traders to fully price in a December Fed rate hike [1][7]. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's resignation triggered a global risk-off selloff, with the 10-year yield rising 11.6bp to 5.105% [1][7]. ETH also traded below its 200-day MA at $2,148.94 [7][3][1].
Key events on November 13, 2026, included the U.S. October PPI release at 8:30 AM ET, Deribit weekly BTC/ETH options expiry at 08:00 GMT, and a ~50.41M Wormhole W token unlock [8][9]. Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman's 15:50 GMT speech on financial supervision was also scheduled [8]. Looking forward, November 14 features a Bitcoin difficulty adjustment of approximately -8.7% and a ~16.7M PIEVERSE token unlock [8][10]. On November 15, a ~127M STRK unlock occurs, and Solana Breakpoint opens in London [8][10][9]. The SEC 13-F filing deadline on November 16 will reveal institutional crypto-adjacent holdings [8][10]. Subsequent dates include Deribit monthly options expiry on November 27 [8][10] and the FOMC meeting on December 9 [8][11]. Technically, analysts flagged $1,900–$1,940 as a buyer recovery zone, with $1,900 as critical support [7][3][1]. A loss of $1,900 could open $1,840 [7][3][1], while clearing $2,040 is required for recovery [7][3][1]. The prior 24 hours saw $259.12M of ETH positions liquidated, 90.7% of them longs [7][3][1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 14, 2026
  • Expiration: November 21, 2026
  • Closes: November 14, 2026
Sources (11)
  1. 1Ethereum Price Forecast — ETH-USD ($1,933) $2,270 Upside Target on Record Staking and $2.35B ETF Outflowstradingnews.com
  2. 2Major Crypto ETFs Bled $1.5 Billion While Wall Street Went Dip Shoppingfinance.yahoo.com
  3. 3Ethereum Foundation-Linked Wallet Sells ETH a 4th Timebasecamp.markets
  4. 4November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 6:15–6:30 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  5. 5November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 7:00–7:15 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  6. 6November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 7:15–7:30 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  7. 7Ethereum, XRP, PI fall as US PPI inflation reaches 6.5%crypto.news
  8. 8Key Events in the Crypto Market This Week – Second Week of Novembercoinmax.news
  9. 9Crypto Market Outlook This Week (Nov. 9–15): CPI, PPI and Solana Breakpoint in Focus | Gate Bloggate.com
  10. 10Crypto in Q4 2026: The Complete On-Chain Whale Calendar (October–December)deepbluealpha.io
  11. 11Crypto Calendar: FOMC 9 Dec, CPI 10 Dec — CryptoKeyholecryptokeyhole.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXETH15M-26NOV131930-30: YES (Nov 14, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26NOV131915-15: YES (Nov 14, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26NOV131900-00: YES (Nov 14, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26NOV131845-45: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26NOV131830-30: YES (Nov 13, 2026)