Short Answer

Ethereum is unlikely to reach its $1,952.34 target price within 15 minutes; the market prices this outcome at 44.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • The $1,952.34 target price appears probable, given neutral to slightly bullish 15-minute momentum.
  • Worm market odds lean to Up (51%), supporting the $1,952.34 price target.

Current Context

ETH traded deeply oversold on November 13 amid bearish technicals. ETH closed at $1,943.99 on November 13, 2026, a 5.01% decline over 24 hours, with a session range of $2,053.28 to $1,895.95 and $763.96 million in Binance spot volume [1]. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 24.80, indicating deeply oversold conditions, with price near the lower Bollinger Band at $1,975.33 [1]. Technical consensus favored a bearish outlook below $2,000, which had flipped to resistance, identifying support at $1,905/$1,896 and then $1,800–$1,807 [1][2][3]. Resistance levels were noted at $2,032.86, $2,121.74, $2,150, $2,200 (death-cross invalidation), and an upside target at $2,270 [1][2][3]. A death cross (50/200-day moving average) was forming, and ETH traded below the Supertrend indicator [3]. LiteFinance's snapshot on November 13, 2026, placed ETH at $1,947.48 (-4.98% 24h), projecting a 7-day range of $1,682.90–$2,184.72. This came with a 'strong buy' technical recommendation despite a downward weekly Ichimoku trend, although 63.72% of surveyed participants favored Sell [4]. Polymarket's 'Ethereum price on November 13' market (Binance ETH/USDT 12:00 ET close) resolved in the $1,900–$2,000 bracket with 100% Yes. A Worm market showed ETH above $1,957 at 12:15 UTC at over 99% odds, indicating price was near or above $1,952 around midday but had fallen below $1,940 by the U.S. open [5][6][2].
Prediction markets indicated a low probability for the $1,952.34 target. The $1,952.34 target price was positioned just above the $1,964.41 pivot's lower bound and within the $1,948.87–$1,951.43 strike range of adjacent Robinhood 15-minute markets [7][8][1]. These Robinhood markets, resolving on CF Benchmarks' ETHUSDRTI or Chainlink ETH/USD 60-second TWAP averages, pay $1 per correct contract [7][9][10]. Robinhood's 3 PM EST November 13 market odds showed $1,950+ at 25¢ and $1,955+ at 7¢ [11]. This implied the $1,952.34 15-minute target would resolve as a low-probability Yes, likely in the 10–20¢ range [11]. Limitless's November 13 17:00–17:15 UTC market showed Down at 55.5% with a $1,926.35 price-to-beat, confirming an afternoon downtrend context for the 3:00–3:15 PM EST window [7][9][10].
Macro factors and outflows exerted downward pressure on ETH. ETH's overnight low of $1,896 on November 13 represented its weakest point since August 18, 2026, following a break of the $2,000 level for the first time since August [2]. This price movement occurred after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's resignation on November 12 [12]. U.S. spot ETH ETFs recorded $70.57 million in outflows on November 13, marking the sixth consecutive day of outflows. This followed record outflows of $1.607 billion in October, totaling $2.35 billion over seven weeks [2][3]. A record 44.6 million ETH, or 36.51% of total supply, was staked on November 12, 2026, up from 36.36% on November 6. However, the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.16% sat 251 basis points above ETH's 2.65% staking yield, which pressured institutional demand [2]. The U.S. dollar reached a 19-month high, and stablecoin supply contracted by $14.2 billion [2]. Despite these immediate pressures, expert forecasts for 2026 remained significantly higher than the approximate $1,933 spot price. Standard Chartered projected $7,500 by end-2026, Citi estimated $3,175–$4,488 in 12 months, ARK suggested ~$25,000 by end-2026, Arthur Hayes foresaw $10,000–$20,000 by 2028, and Tom Lee/Fundstrat forecast $7,000–$62,000 in 2026 [13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction: Oversold bounce or another leg down after a sharp breakdown - Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
  2. 2Ethereum Price Forecast — ETH-USD ($1,933) $2,270 Upside Target on Record Staking and $2.35B ETF Outflowstradingnews.com
  3. 3Ethereum price prediction: death cross nears as ETF outflows gain steaminvezz.com
  4. 4Ethereum (ETH) Price Forecast & Predictions for 2026, 2027, 2028–2030, 2040 and Beyond | LiteFinancelitefinance.org
  5. 5Ethereum price on November 13?polymarket.com
  6. 6Where will Ethereum close on November 13, 2026 at 12:15 UTC? | Wormworm.wtf
  7. 7November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 2:45–3:00 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  8. 8November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 5:15–5:30 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  9. 9ETH Up or Down - 15 Min Odds: Down 55% | Limitlesslimitless.exchange
  10. 10GitHub - moondevonyt/Limitless-Prediction-Market-Bots: Limitless Prediction Market Trading Bots · GitHubgithub.com
  11. 11November 13, 2026: ETH price on Nov 13, 2026 at 3pm EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  12. 12Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH falls below $2,000 as Nvidia's Jensen Huang resignsfxstreet.com
  13. 13Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction 2026: Expert Forecasts and Analysiscoingecko.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market offers contracts for the ETH price moving "Up" or "Down" relative to a target of $1,952.34. An "Up" contract resolves to YES if the final price is above the target, otherwise NO. A "Down" contract resolves to YES if the final price is below the target, otherwise NO.

The final price is determined by averaging 60 CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) prices, which are collected during the last minute before the market's implied expiration on November 26 at 13:15:15.

Market Discussion

Prediction markets for ETH 15-minute intervals present various targets near $1,952.34 [1], with some similar market targets showing a bearish lean [2]. Bearish sentiment is supported by TradingView forum traders outlining sell setups and AI technical analysis rating ETH bearish, noting the $1,952.34 target sits below a key resistance band [3]. However, some contrarian bullish views suggest buying at demand zones around $1,938 [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 2:45–3:00 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 215 min Crypto Markets Crypto Odds & Predictions 2026 | Kalshikalshi.com
  3. 3Ethereum / U.S. dollar Forum & Chats (BITSTAMP:ETHUSD) – TradingView Mindstradingview.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 80 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score60Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score80Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
84Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
65Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

1 contract

Target Price: $1,952.3465
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Target Price: $1,952.34—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Target Price: $1,952.3495
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
60Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 65 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (~1% of a 39.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 1.0c slippage (~3% of a 39.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Target Price: $1,952.34Primary65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 13, 2026

5. What short-term catalysts in the order books of Binance or Coinbase could have pushed Ethereum's price above the $1,952.34 target on November 13?

Sell Wall Position$28.4M at $1,949.90 [1]
ETH Order Book DepthApproximately $251M (buy and sell orders within ±3% of $1,959) [1][2][3]
Binance ETH Short Liquidation$17.81M at $1,979 on Nov 13 [4]
Short-term catalysts that pushed Ethereum's price above its $1,952.34 target on November 13 centered on market dynamics. A significant factor was the absorption of a $28.4 million sell wall positioned just below the target price at $1,949.90 [1]. This immediate market action was greatly amplified by extremely thin ETH order-book depth, where approximately $251 million in both buy and sell orders were present within a narrow ±3% range of $1,959 [1][2][3]. Such limited liquidity meant that even a modest wave of buying pressure could sharply increase ETH's price, potentially leading to a breach of the target within a 15-minute window.
Aggressive Coinbase buying and short liquidations fueled upward price movement. Venue-specific catalysts included aggressive spot buying on Coinbase, as its spot order book indicated greater buy-side depth compared to sell-side depth [5]. This buying activity likely contributed to lifting the composite or Chainlink TWAP above $1,952.34. Furthermore, a short-squeeze event, such as the $17.81 million short liquidation on Binance's ETH perpetual market at $1,979 on November 13, demonstrated how forced covering of short positions could spike ETH's price by approximately $20 or more within minutes [4]. The broader market also contained substantial upside squeeze potential, with $903.8 million in short liquidation fuel available within 15% above the price, implying that any impulsive push through $1,952.34 had significant liquidation fuel to extend the rally within a 15-minute window [1].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Ethereum ETH Liquidation Heatmap & Liquidity Heatmap (ETHUSDT)pumpglass.com
  2. 2Ethereum Price Forecast — ETH-USD ($1,933) $2,270 Upside Target on Record Staking and $2.35B ETF Outflowstradingnews.com
  3. 3Order Book Heatmap: Live BTC, ETH, SOL and HYPE Liquidity | Liqwallliqwall.com
  4. 4Binance Logs $17.81 Million Ether Short Liquidation at $1,979 | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  5. 5OKX Ether Perpetual Book Shows an $888,000 Sell-Side Leadtokenpost.com

6. How did 15-minute technical indicators like the RSI and Bollinger Bands characterize ETH's momentum heading into the 3:00 PM EST resolution window?

15-minute RSI(14)51.90 (neutral, rising) [1]
15-minute Bollinger Bands (20,2)$1,913.03 - $1,965.76 [1]
ETH Price (2:07 PM EST)$1,944.66 [1]
15-minute ETH indicators showed neutral to slightly bullish momentum. Leading into the November 13, 2026, 3:00 PM EST resolution window, short-term technical indicators for ETH suggested generally neutral to slightly bullish momentum. The 15-minute Relative Strength Index (RSI(14)) was recorded at 51.90, indicating a neutral zone and rising, complemented by a positive MACD histogram at +1.412 [1]. However, the Average Directional Index (ADX(14)) at 16.60 signified a weak trend [1]. At $1,944.66, ETH’s price was situated in the lower-middle of its 15-minute Bollinger Bands (20,2), which spanned from $1,913.03 to $1,965.76, and below the 15-minute Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) at $1,948.39 [1].
Higher timeframe bearish trends implied a short-covering bounce. This 15-minute activity appeared to be a short-covering bounce or a reflexive move against a broader bearish backdrop observed on higher timeframes, supported by a deeply oversold daily RSI [2][3][4]. Nearing the resolution window, ETH experienced a spike to $1,952, demonstrating a modest upside lean. This movement was further supported by the continually neutral-to-slightly-bullish 15-minute RSI, which was approximately 52-55 and rising, alongside a positive MACD [5][6][1][7]. Nevertheless, the near-term upside was constrained by the 15-minute Bollinger upper band, positioned around $1,959-$1,966 [5][6][1][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1ETHUSDT Today: Trend, Pivot Points and Indicators | MakeEAmakeea.com
  2. 2Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction: Oversold bounce or another leg down after a sharp breakdown - Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
  3. 3Top 3 Price Predictions: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple – BTC, ETH and XRP extend losses as downside momentum dominatesfxstreet.com
  4. 4Ethereum Signal & Price Prediction Today, Nov 13 – ETHkumocast.io
  5. 5Ether (ETH) price rises above $1,950 on Binance... | Pluangpluang.com
  6. 6Ethereum price Today at 2:45 pm ET Prediction & Odds - Ethereum - OG.comog.com
  7. 7Ethereum Price (ETH) — Live Chart & Analysis | Coinuggetcoinugget.com

7. How did the implied odds for ETH crossing ~$1,950 on November 13 compare across Kalshi, Robinhood, and Limitless prediction markets?

Kalshi ETH Target Implied Odds$1,950.60 target at 87% Above [1]
Robinhood ETH Target Implied Odds$1,950.06 target at 49% Yes (5:45–6:00 AM window) [2]
Kalshi ETH 15M Market VolumeApproximately $150–154M over 7 days (as of November 13, 2026) [3][4][5]
Direct implied odds for ETH at ~$1,952.34 were not identified. No direct implied odds were identified for ETH crossing the ~$1,952.34 target during the 3:00–3:15 PM EST window on November 13 [1][6][2][7]. However, available data from prediction markets for nearby targets and windows offered insights into typical pricing. For instance, Kalshi showed a $1,950.60 target with 87% implied odds for 'Above' [1]. Robinhood displayed a $1,950.06 target with 49¢ 'Yes' for an earlier 5:45–6:00 AM EST window, indicating near-even odds [2]. Limitless also presented an approximate 44.5% Up / 55.5% Down split on a nearby window [7].
Near-the-money ETH markets commonly price around 45–55% early. These observations align with the general behavior of near-the-money 15-minute ETH markets, which commonly price around 45–55% implied probability early in a window. As the resolution time approaches, these probabilities typically drift towards extremes [1][6][2][7]. For example, a Robinhood market for a 12:45–1:00 PM EST window had a $1,942.12 target trading at 45¢, representing a 45% implied 'Yes' [6]. An OddsShopper snapshot further illustrated how implied odds for a Kalshi ETH target could quickly swing from approximately 50% to the 30s during the window [8].
Price differences between venues can occur due to distinct oracles. Minor price-to-beat differences were observed between venues such as Limitless and Kalshi for the same window, attributable to distinct oracles, which occasionally resulted in settlement disagreements [9]. The Kalshi ETH 15-minute 'price up/down' series constitutes a highly active crypto prediction market. As of November 13, 2026, it recorded approximately $150–154 million in volume over the trailing 7 days, ranking third among all markets on the platform [3][4][5].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Eth Odds & Predictions 2026 | Kalshikalshi.com
  2. 2November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 5:45–6:00 AM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  3. 3Crypto Prediction Markets — Bitcoin & Ethereum Odds | TickerTrackerticker-tracker.com
  4. 4Most-Traded Prediction Markets by Volume | TickerTrackerticker-tracker.com
  5. 5Prediction Markets — Kalshi Volume & Activity | TickerTrackerticker-tracker.com
  6. 6November 13, 2026: ETH 15 min · 12:45–1:00 PM EST Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  7. 7ETH Up or Down - 15 Min Odds: Down 55% | Limitlesslimitless.exchange
  8. 8Can You Actually Beat A 15-Minute Market? | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  9. 9Ethereum Up or Down 15 Minutes Odds | Polymarket & Kalshipredictmarketcap.com

8. What is the specific calculation methodology for the CF Benchmarks ETHUSDRTI used for settlement, and where can traders access this real-time data?

Dissemination FrequencyApproximately every second (200ms benchmark price) [1][2][3]
Price Precision0.01 USD precision [1][2][3]
Settlement Comparison BasisAverage of 60 one-second prints from the minute before close vs. average of 60 prints from the minute before open [4][3][5]
The CF Benchmarks ETHUSDRTI calculates an index from aggregated order book data. This index is derived by merging and uncrossing order books from various constituent exchanges, followed by price-volume curve computation. The final index value sums the mid price-volume curve, which is weighted by a normalized exponential probability density up to a defined utilized depth [1]. Notably, this index relies on order-book data rather than executed trades, making it forward-looking and reflective of aggregated global buy/sell demand across the constituent exchanges [1][6][7].
The index is precisely disseminated for various settlement purposes. Administered by CF Benchmarks Ltd, an FCA-registered benchmark administrator and a Registered Benchmark under UK BMR, the ETHUSD_RTI is disseminated approximately every second with a precision of 0.01 USD [1][2][3]. This data is continuously available throughout the year, including weekends and holidays. For market settlement, such as for a 15-minute ETH market, the index typically compares the simple average of 60 one-second prints from the minute preceding the market’s close against the 60-print average from the minute before its opening, utilizing an inclusive threshold [4][3][5].
Traders can access this real-time data through multiple platforms. Access is available directly via the CF Benchmarks website and their licensed REST API, which requires an API key [2][8]. Additionally, CME Group provides access through MDP channels, CMEGroup.com, and DataMine for historical data [9][6]. For Kalshi traders, an authenticated REST passthrough and WebSocket feed are available using standard Kalshi API credentials, delivering ticks approximately once per second, a trailing 60-second average, and a specific field for quarter-hour closes [5][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1CME CF Cryptocurrency Real Time Indicesdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  2. 2CME CF Ether-Dollar Real Time Indexcfbenchmarks.com
  3. 3Ethereum 15 Min Up or Down: Live Odds | PM Countdownpmcountdown.com
  4. 4How Kalshi Settles 15-Minute ETH Contractspredictionmarketspicks.com
  5. 5CF Benchmarks Value Feeddocs.kalshi.com
  6. 6FAQ: CME CF Single-Asset Cryptocurrency Benchmarks - CME Groupcmegroup.com
  7. 7Crypto Markets | Kalshi Help Centerhelp.kalshi.com
  8. 8REST API | CF Benchmarks APIdocs.cfbenchmarks.com
  9. 9Ether Pricing Products Frequently Asked Questionscmegroup.com
  10. 10CF Benchmarks REST Passthroughdocs.kalshi.com

9. What did Ethereum futures funding rates on Binance and short-dated options on Deribit suggest about institutional sentiment for the afternoon of November 13?

Binance ETH Funding Rates+0.0050–0.0054% per 8 hours (November 13, 2026) [1][2][3]
Deribit ETH Put/Call Ratio2.01 (November 13, 2026 expiry) [4]
Deribit ETH 25-delta Put Skew+11.14% (November 14 expiry) [5][6]
Ethereum futures on November 13 indicated persistent long positioning amidst price declines. On November 13, 2026, the Ethereum futures market displayed a notable paradox, with persistent long positioning despite a downward price trend. Binance ETH funding rates remained positive, ranging from +0.0050% to +0.0054% per eight hours, suggesting that long position holders were paying short sellers even as prices fell. This sentiment was reinforced by data showing 78.9% of accounts were net long, contributing to a high crowding score of 72 out of 100 [1][2][3].
Short-dated options on Deribit revealed a strong focus on downside protection. Concurrently, short-dated options on Deribit demonstrated a clear emphasis on bearish hedging and downside protection. For the November 13, 2026, 9 AM CET expiry, the put/call ratio stood at 2.01, with 90,778 ETH in puts significantly outweighing 45,053 ETH in calls. A substantial "put wall" was observed at the $2,000 strike, amounting to 48,461 ETH [4]. The November 14 expiry further underscored this sentiment, showing a 25-delta put skew of +11.14%, which was the steepest in its term structure, alongside an at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility (IV) of 53.83% [5][6]. While calls generally held the majority of overall open interest, puts comprised 42.59% of the day's trading volume, and a collective negative 25-delta skew of −5.2 points collectively indicated significant short-term hedging against price declines [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Ethereum (ETH) Long/Short Ratio Today – Binance, Bybit, OKX, Hyperliquid | ratio.dayratio.day
  2. 2Ethereum (ETH) Liquidations, Funding Rate, Open Interest | Liqwallliqwall.com
  3. 3ETH Open Interest $17.02B, Funding Rate, Liquidations | TradRadartradradar.io
  4. 4Ethereum options expiry: puts outnumber calls two to onecryptoticker.io
  5. 5Ethereum Options on Deribit: ETH IV, Volume and Expiriesperpfinder.com
  6. 6Pandabull | ETH on Deribit Implied Volatility Surface | Forward Volatility | Put Skew Term Structurepandabull.io
  7. 7[ETH options daily] Open interest falls to $5.22 billion; $1,800 puts lead trading | TokenPosttokenpost.com
  8. 8Ethereum Options: ETH Implied Volatility, Skew, Put/Call Ratiooptimistfi.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Ethereum faces immediate volatility driven by technicals and short-term market dynamics. The Worm 'Ethereum Up or Down' market, resolving on the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP over 20:00–20:15 UTC, shows 51% Up odds against 49% Down [1]. ETH's first futures support is at $1,952 (-0.3% from the $1,957 analysis price), with first resistance at $2,041 (+4.3%) [2]. A close below $1,952 weakens the chart, while a close above $2,041 strengthens the bullish case [2]. Lower leverage clusters at $1,902 and $1,807 could accelerate downside via forced liquidations [2]. However, the daily RSI is deeply oversold at ~24.8–25.3, stochastics are at 8.67/6.94, and price presses the lower Bollinger Band ($1,975, %B -0.064) [3][4]. A record 44.6M ETH is staked, representing 36.51% of supply, up from 36.36% on November 6 [4][3]. These technicals suggest a short-covering rebound toward the $1,964 pivot and $2,032–2,041 resistance as the main upside scenario for the 3:00 PM window [3][2]. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 20, indicating Extreme Fear, down from 28 [5].
The broader macro environment and ongoing outflows exert significant downward pressure. US October PPI rose +0.3% MoM, yet annual producer inflation reached 6.5% YoY, the highest since November 2022 (7.4%) [6][7]. ETH was already trading below $2,000 by the time of the PPI release, with pressure continuing into the afternoon [6]. US spot ETH ETFs recorded $70.57M in outflows Thursday, marking a sixth consecutive outflow day [4]. Total withdrawals from these funds hit $2.35B over seven weeks, with October alone seeing a record $1.607B [4][8]. ETH funds specifically lost $326M from November 4–10 [8]. Analysts Ella and Alex Marzell have cited potential downside targets of $1,840 if $1,900 fails, and $1,500 after repeated rising-channel breakdowns, respectively [4][8]. Geopolitical factors, such as Trump's Truth Social remarks that the US doesn't need an Iran deal and Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi Aramco, contributed to a risk-off sentiment, pushing Brent crude up 3.3% to $95.82 [9][5]. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.105% (+11.6bp Thursday) and the DXY is around 103.18 [7][4].
Upcoming events will shape market direction. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson remarks are scheduled for November 14 [5]. Nvidia earnings on November 17 are critical, with Jensen Huang's resignation as CEO Thursday identified as a trigger for the global risk selloff [5][4]. A clean Nvidia quarter, alongside Bitcoin holding above its 200-week average (~$68,013), could enable ETH to reclaim $2,000 and push toward $2,150 [5]. Conversely, a weak report or BTC falling below $67,500 would likely drag ETH toward $1,800 [5]. Late November will bring PCE inflation data, followed by the December 8–9 FOMC decision with updated projections [5]. Futures markets currently price a 25bp Fed hike as the base case for December 8–9, with over 10% odds of a half-point move [4][7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 13, 2026
  • Expiration: November 20, 2026
  • Closes: November 13, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET | Wormworm.wtf
  2. 2Ethereum (ETH) Futures Technical Analysis | COINOTAGen.coinotag.com
  3. 3Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction: Oversold bounce or another leg down after a sharp breakdown - Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
  4. 4Ethereum Price Forecast — ETH-USD ($1,933) $2,270 Upside Target on Record Staking and $2.35B ETF Outflowstradingnews.com
  5. 5Crypto Daily Market Report | KuCoinkucoin.com
  6. 6Ethereum, XRP, PI fall as US PPI inflation reaches 6.5%crypto.news
  7. 7Markets Today - November 13, 2026nexo.com
  8. 8Major Crypto ETFs Bled $1.5 Billion While Wall Street Went Dip Shoppingfinance.yahoo.com
  9. 9The macro backdrop remains negative for Ethereum as Trump's Iran remarks fuel renewed risk aversioninvestinglive.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 12 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXETH15M-26NOV131500-00: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26NOV131445-45: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26NOV131430-30: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26NOV131415-15: YES (Nov 13, 2026)
  • KXETH15M-26NOV131400-00: YES (Nov 13, 2026)