SOL price on Oct 31, 2026 at 2am EDT?
Short Answer
SOL is expected to trade at $94.25 or above on October 31, 2026, at 2 AM EDT, consistent with estimates placing the price likely in the $96-$97 range; the market prices this outcome at 99.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
No historical price data available.
- $94.25 or above is highly probable; prediction markets cluster in mid-$95s.
- SOL price appears likely in the $96-$97 range, based on multiple indicators.
- Polymarket analysis implies a higher probability for exceeding $96.9999, with median at $97.24.
Current Context
SOL price settled near $96 on October 31 amidst a soft market. Fincast reported SOL at $96.6298 at 01:59 AM UTC on October 31, 2026, corresponding to 01:59 AM EDT [1]. Daily historical data indicates an October 31 open near $96.17–$96.22 and a close near $95.85–$96.13, though exact 2:00 AM EDT pricing is exchange-specific [2][3]. The market for SOL was weak to sideways during October, with the price declining from approximately $118–$119 at the month's start to around $96 by October 31 [2][3][4]. Daily ranges on October 31 registered near $95.55–$96.85 according to Yahoo data and $95.99–$96.88 in another historical dataset [2][3][4].
Prediction markets indicated a mid-to-upper $90s range for SOL. Prediction markets generally leaned bullish, despite varying settlement times for their forecasts [5][6][4][7]. Public's 1:00 AM EDT market implied a 99% probability of at least $95.25 [5]. Robinhood's market, set for October 31 at 5:00 PM EDT, showed probabilities of 61% for at least $94, 57% for at least $95, and 38% for at least $96 [6]. A Polymarket-derived analysis estimated a noon-ET median price of $97.24, with a 50% probability range of $95.69–$98.79 [4]. This analysis also placed the probability of SOL being above $95 at 86.1% and above $100 at 5.5% [4]. The available prediction market data supports a near-term base case around the mid-to-upper $90s, rather than a precise point forecast, with 94.5% probability for the $90–$100 range [4].
Solana's Alpenglow upgrade and ecosystem growth marked October. The major Solana development was the Alpenglow upgrade, activated on mainnet on October 21, 2026, at epoch 1064 [8][9][10][11][12]. This core-protocol change, characterized as Solana's largest since 2020, moves validator voting off-chain to target roughly 150-millisecond finality, a substantial improvement from previous several-second finality [8][9][10][11][12]. User wallets, fees, and application interfaces remained unchanged, though the 150-millisecond finality is a target dependent on network conditions, not a guaranteed outcome [8][9][10][11][12]. Other key dates in 2026 included BLS public-key management on July 8, Validator Admission Tickets on July 22, Alpenglow testnet activation on September 24–25, and 200-millisecond slots on October 9 [10][11][12]. October ecosystem developments included Samsung Wallet's planned support for USDC transfers on Solana during the last week of October, reaching an estimated 82 million U.S. Galaxy devices, and Securitize's October 8 launch of 12 tokenized U.S. equities, such as Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, and Microsoft, on Solana [10].
Sources (12)
- 1SOL to USD: Solana price today & history · Fincastfincast.info
- 2Solana USD (SOL-USD) Price History & Historical Data - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
- 3Solana (SOL) Price History 2026: Daily Open, High, Low, Closeprice.scryptwallet.io
- 4Solana Price Prediction for October 31: Polymarket Odds Put SOL Near $97.24polymarkettrader.com
- 5SOL price on Oct 31, 2026 at 1am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 6Crypto SOL Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
- 7Solana above ___ on October 31? - Predicakepredicake.com
- 8Solana’s biggest network change since 2020 is live. Here’s how users benefitcoindesk.com
- 9Solana’s Alpenglow, its biggest network overhaul since 2020, goes live Wednesdaycoindesk.com
- 10The State of Solana: October 2026kiln.fi
- 11Alpenglow: What We Learned Running Solana's Biggest Consensus Change | Galaxygalaxy.com
- 12SOL news: Solana sets Oct. 21 for Alpenglow upgrade targeting 150-millisecond finalitycoindesk.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if the SOL price is $96.00 or above at 2am EDT on October 31, 2026, and resolves to NO if it is below $96.00 at that time. The market's settlement date and time is October 31, 2026, at 2am EDT. The specific data source used to determine the SOL price is not detailed in the provided information.
Market Discussion
The SOL price on October 31, 2026, at 2:00 AM EDT is inferred to be approximately $95–$97, with a central estimate near $96, based on a related 1:00 AM EDT market indicating levels around $95–$96.75 and the day's high/low data [1][2][3][4]. Although social commentary immediately before October 31, 2026, was mixed-to-bearish in the short term, daily prediction markets for the noon-ET settlement on October 31, 2026, generally clustered around $95–$98 [1][4][5][6][7]. Longer-horizon prediction markets, however, showed a more constructive outlook for the end of 2026, with forecasts near $124.40 [8][9].
Sources (9)
- 1Solana Price Prediction for October 31: Polymarket Odds Put SOL Near $97.24polymarkettrader.com
- 2SOL price on Oct 31, 2026 at 1am EDT? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3Solana USD (SOL-USD) Price History & Historical Data - Yahoo Financefinance.yahoo.com
- 4Solana price on October 31: Odds & Chart | 4Search Finance4search.com
- 5#SOL is difficult to work out as well. I'm expecting lower. | KuCoinkucoin.com
- 6All good, we can resume the bull run. Thanks, hackers, for | KuCoinkucoin.com
- 7I just short #Sol HS back test /bear flag https://t.co/xocYs | KuCoinkucoin.com
- 8SOL surges past $100: What are Kalshi traders pricing for the rest of 2026?news.kalshi.com
- 9Price of Solana by end of 2026? Prediction Market — Odds & Analytics | CryptoRank.iocryptorank.io
4. Trust Index
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score52Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score78Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. What key performance indicators after the Alpenglow upgrade will signal Solana's long-term network health and adoption through late 2026?
| Target Finality Latency | Approximately 100–150 milliseconds [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Finality Improvement (Post-Alpenglow) | Approximately 99% faster than TowerBFT [1][2] |
| Transaction Size Increase | From 1,232 to 4,096 bytes [1][3][4] |
After the Alpenglow upgrade, key performance indicators for Solana's long-term network health will primarily focus on sustained end-to-end finality latency. This upgrade, expected to be live on Solana mainnet by October 2026, targets approximately 100–150 milliseconds, a significant improvement from the 12.8 seconds observed under TowerBFT, representing about 99% faster finality [1][2]. Post-upgrade performance will be specifically monitored against this 100–150ms design target through median, tail (p95), and failure rates [2].
Network reliability and efficiency are critical post-upgrade health indicators. Consensus reliability will be monitored using metrics such as finalized-versus-skipped blocks, fallback-round frequency, vote participation, and network liveness during validator failures, alongside evidence of the stated 20+20 resilience model [2]. Network efficiency KPIs will encompass validator vote bandwidth, CPU and communication overhead, missed votes, and operating costs. These improvements leverage Alpenglow's architecture, which includes direct validator voting, local signature aggregation, cryptographic vote aggregation, and reduced gossip traffic [2].
Sustained growth in real usage will signal long-term adoption. This will be evaluated by whether the faster, more reliable finality translates into sustained growth in real user transactions, applications, payment activity, and developer usage [2]. Further adoption-enabling capacity signals from the surrounding Agave 4.2 changes include phased rent reductions over five steps and an increase in transaction size from 1,232 to 4,096 bytes [1][3][4]. It is important to note that while prediction markets may resolve SOL price on October 31, 2026, market quotes, such as SOL at or above $95.50, represent market probabilities and do not serve as a forecast of long-term network health [5].
6. How does Solana's network performance, specifically transaction speed and cost, compare to leading Ethereum Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism in late 2026?
| Solana Transaction Confirmation | Sub-second [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Solana Average Transaction Cost | Approximately $0.0005 [1][2] |
| Optimism Soft Finality | About 2 seconds [3][4] |
Solana offers rapid, low-cost transactions, though direct comparisons are complex. In a late-2026 comparison, Solana demonstrates a clear advantage in simple end-user latency and quoted cost, with transactions confirming in under one second at an average cost of about $0.0005 per transaction [5][1][2]. However, achieving a precise, apples-to-apples comparison across different blockchain platforms is challenging, as it requires identical transaction types, congestion states, fee markets, and definitions of finality [5][1][2].
Layer 2 solutions provide fast execution, but with a tiered finality model. Arbitrum and Optimism, as Ethereum Layer 2 solutions, provide low-cost, fast execution but introduce a distinction between rapid sequencer confirmation and slower Ethereum-backed finality [5][6][3]. Arbitrum executes transactions off-chain, utilizing batching, compression, and blobs to reduce costs, with its fee model significantly influenced by fluctuating L1 data costs and network demand [6][7][8]. OP Mainnet reports approximately 200 ms subblock preconfirmations where enabled and about 2-second soft finality, though Ethereum-backed hard finality typically takes 15–30 minutes [3][4]. Both Layer 2 solutions aim to make transactions far less expensive than Ethereum L1 by performing execution on Layer 2 and only posting compressed data to Layer 1 [9][10].
Sources (10)
- 1Overviewsolana.com
- 2Overviewsolana.com
- 3Optimism Documentationdocs.optimism.io
- 4Optimism Documentationdocs.optimism.io
- 5SOL price on Oct 31, 2026 at 2am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 6Arbitrum introduction (/get-started/arbitrum-introduction)docs.arbitrum.io
- 7Arbitrum introductiondocs.arbitrum.io
- 8Arbitrum Nitro: A Second-Generation Optimistic Rollupdocs.arbitrum.io
- 9Optimism Documentationdocs.optimism.io
- 10data-glossarydocs.optimism.io
7. What on-chain evidence from Q4 2026 demonstrates the adoption impact of ecosystem integrations like Samsung Wallet and Securitize's tokenized equities?
| SECZ launch on Solana | July 2, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Securitize assets managed onchain (Q2 2026) | Approximately $5.0 billion (as of June 30, 2026) [1][2] |
| Securitize aggregate transaction volume (Q2 2026) | $5.3 billion [1][2] |
Q4 2026 adoption impact lacks specific on-chain metrics. The available research does not establish the Q4 2026 adoption impact for ecosystem integrations like Samsung Wallet and Securitize's tokenized equities on Solana, as no Q4 on-chain metrics were found in the search results. The strongest dated materials available are from July to August 2026, despite October 31, 2026 being the stated current date [3][4]. Specifically regarding Samsung Wallet, its adoption impact on Solana could not be substantiated. The provided sources do not return Q4 2026 Solana metrics, wallet-level on-chain attribution, transaction counts, or active-user counts for this integration [3][4][1][2].
Securitize launched SECZ on Solana, but Q4 metrics are absent. Securitize launched its NYSE-listed common stock, SECZ, on Solana on July 2, 2026 [1]. While platform-wide figures for Q2 2026 were reported by Securitize, these statistics do not represent Q4 Solana-specific adoption measures. As of June 30, 2026, the company reported approximately $5.0 billion in assets managed onchain and $4.3 billion in total tokenized AUM, alongside $5.3 billion in aggregate transaction volume for Q2 2026 [2]. Further, the expansion of Securitize's tokenized AAA CLO Fund (STAC) to Solana and Ethena's $250 million allocation to the fund indicate institutional Solana integration [1][2]. However, the cited sources lack Q4 transaction counts, unique holders, or Solana-specific volume to demonstrate the Q4 impact of these developments [1][2].
Sources (4)
- 1Securitize - Tokenizing SECZ: Securitize Brings Its Own Public Stock Onchain at Listing Dayinvestors.securitize.io
- 2Securitize - Securitize Reports Second Quarter 2026 Resultsinvestors.securitize.io
- 3SOL price on Oct 31, 2026 at 2am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 4https://solana.com/news/solana-ecosystem-roundup-july-2026solana.com
8. What specific datasets from block explorers like Solscan or analytics platforms like Dune can measure Solana's real-world time-to-finality post-Alpenglow activation?
| Real-world time-to-finality measurement | Not directly measurable using Solscan or Dune alone due to lack of submission/finalization timestamps [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Strongest Dune dataset combination | solana.transactions joined to solana.blocks for network activity analysis [1][2][3] |
| Alpenglow specific data availability | Activation date and post-activation latency values are not provided by available sources [1][2][3] |
On-chain tools lack direct real-world time-to-finality measurement. Block explorers such as Solscan and analytics platforms like Dune provide on-chain timestamps and transaction finalization statuses after Alpenglow activation. However, these tools do not directly measure real-world time-to-finality because they lack transaction-submission timestamps or explicit finalization timestamps [1][2][3][4]. A comprehensive time-to-finality study would necessitate combining these on-chain records with external event-time streams that capture client/RPC transaction submission timestamps and repeated commitment-status observations [1][2][3].
Dune and Solscan datasets fall short on specific finality timestamps. Within Dune, the most robust dataset combination for analyzing Solana finality post-Alpenglow is solana.transactions joined to solana.blocks, which offers block slot, block_time, success, and transaction counts [1][2][3]. Despite this, the documentation for these datasets does not expose a transaction-submission timestamp or an explicit finalization timestamp [1][2][3]. Similarly, Solscan transaction records provide signatures, block/slot, timestamp, and a 'Finalized' status, which can verify on-chain finality, but a single explorer page cannot measure the elapsed wall-clock time from broadcast to finality by itself [3][4].
Other datasets and source documentation lack key time-to-finality metrics. While supporting Dune datasets like gas_solana.fees or solana.account_activity can offer additional context for network activity and application-level samples, these datasets also do not directly record client broadcast time or finalization time [1][2][5][6][7]. Furthermore, the available sources do not establish Alpenglow's activation date or provide measured post-activation latency values [1][2][3].
Sources (7)
- 1solana.blocks - Dune Docsdocs.dune.com
- 2solana.transactions - Dune Docsdocs.dune.com
- 3Transaction Details | Solscan Documentationdocs.solscan.io
- 4Transaction 2aXp1kiHb3N5iEgYuWyqJB1tVftE7ND8hGTzLx8e6AuLQRwkhxfqT12h3JrNN294UZ8MmcSEycPp8LeB1U5p8C1nsolscan.io
- 5gas_solana.fees - Dune Docsdocs.dune.com
- 6Solana NFT Transfers - Dune Docsdocs.dune.com
- 7solana.account_activity - Dune Docsdocs.dune.com
9. What do institutional analyst reports and valuation models from H2 2026 indicate for Solana's price, and how do their assumptions about network growth compare to on-chain data?
| Standard Chartered 2026 target (latest) | $135 (February 12, 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Market-implied 2026 target | $95.50-$96 (October 31, 2026) [3] |
| Standard Chartered 2026 target (earlier) | $250 (February 3, 2026) [1][2] |
Solana's price targets show significant divergence by late 2026. Standard Chartered notably revised its end-2026 Solana price target, initially cutting it from $310 to $250 on February 3, 2026 [1], and then further reducing it to $135 on February 12, 2026 [2]. These adjustments reflected expectations of near-term crypto market weakness, ETF outflows, and broader macroeconomic headwinds [1][2]. In contrast, the market-implied level for Solana on October 31, 2026, was considerably lower, near $95.50-$96 [3][1][2]. Historically, VanEck's October 2023 valuation model offered a more optimistic 2030 base case of $334.70, which is substantially higher than current institutional and market-implied figures for 2026 [4][5].
Institutional models forecast strong network growth for Solana. Standard Chartered, for instance, projects Solana becoming a key platform for stablecoin-based micropayments, citing its stablecoin turnover exceeding Ethereum and significant SOL-related ETF inflows [1][6]. While on-chain data from January 20, 2026, indicated a meaningful existing scale, with nearly $15 billion in Solana stablecoins and over $1 billion in tokenized real-world assets, this data does not validate the forward growth rates assumed by the valuation models [6]. Crucially, contemporaneous on-chain data, such as active-address, transaction, fee, TVL, or stablecoin-growth series for October 2026, is not available to quantitatively confirm that realized network growth matches the adoption and revenue trajectories embedded in these valuation models [3][1][2][6][4][5].
Sources (6)
- 1Here's why one analyst expects Solana (SOL) to rise twenty-fold from current depressed levelcoindesk.com
- 2Standard Chartered sees bitcoin (BTC) sliding to $50,000, ether (ETH) to $1,400 before recoverycoindesk.com
- 3SOL price on Oct 31, 2026 at 2am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 4VanEck’s Base, Bear, Bull Case: Solana Valuation by 2030 | VanEckvaneck.com
- 5VanEck’s Base, Bear, Bull Case: Solana Valuation by 2030 | VanEckvaneck.com
- 6Why is SOL down today? Price drops below key support level as 24-hour market liquidations near $350 millioncoindesk.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Around the Oct. 31, 2026 2:00 a.m. EDT snapshot, prediction markets for the SOL contract clustered from the mid-$95s to the upper-$97s. Robinhood displayed probabilities including $95.50-or-above at 72%, $95.75-or-above at 36%, $96-or-above at 25%, and $96.25-or-above at 6% [1][2][3]. A separate Oct. 31 noon-ET Polymarket snapshot implied a median SOL price of $97.24, with 86.1% odds above $95 and a 94.5% probability for the $90-$100 range [4]. The official settlement source for the 2:00 a.m. EDT contract is CF Benchmarks’ SOLUSD Real Time Index, calculated as the average of 60 observations before expiration [1].
A significant completed Solana catalyst before Oct. 31 was the Alpenglow mainnet activation at epoch 1064 on Oct. 21, which aimed for approximately 150-millisecond finality, an improvement over TowerBFT’s approximately 12.8 seconds [5][6]. Looking forward, VanEck’s Oct. 7, 2026 Solana ETF prospectus supplement indicated an intent to begin at-least-quarterly cash distributions of net staking rewards in October 2026 [7]. Such distributions may require selling staking rewards or some SOL, presenting a potential marginal supply risk alongside institutional access and staking income opportunities [7].
Near-term bearish signals reported on Oct. 31 included recent U.S. spot SOL ETF outflows, a reported large-wallet sale of around 1.02 million SOL, over $23 million in leveraged long liquidations, and a technical breakdown below $100 [8][9]. Technical analysis identified $97.30 as support, with $92.50 as the next support level if it failed, and $113.16 as a key recovery level [10]. Macro and regulatory events around this period, such as the Oct. 28 Federal Reserve decision, Oct. 29 ECB decision, Oct. 30 Bank of Japan decision, and an SEC proposed crypto-rules comment deadline on Oct. 20, could affect crypto liquidity, risk appetite, and SOL valuation [5][6].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: October 31, 2026
- Expiration: November 07, 2026
- Closes: October 31, 2026
Sources (10)
- 1SOL price on Oct 31, 2026 at 2am EDT Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 2SOL price on Oct 31, 2026 at 1am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 3SOL price range on Oct 31, 2026 at 1am EDT? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 4Solana Price Prediction for October 31: Polymarket Odds Put SOL Near $97.24polymarkettrader.com
- 5Crypto rules finalized, Bitcoin retreats, Solana upgrades | Weekly recapcrypto.news
- 6Crypto week ahead, 19-25 October: Alpenglow, XRPL, Fed – Coindarocoindaro.com
- 7Filed pursuant to Rule 424(b)(3) Registration No. 333-280517vaneck.com
- 8Solana Weekly Recap (October 18, 2026): Alpenglow on October 21, Ledger, ETF Outflows | SOLANA·HUBsolanahub.de
- 9Solana (SOLUSD) Is up 1.77% on Oct 31: What Do On-Chain Data and Market Sentiment Show?tradingkey.com
- 10SOL Price Breaks Its Last Swing Low, Sits on $97.30 Flooraltcoinbuzz.io
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 18 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSOLD-26OCT3101-T99.9999: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXSOLD-26OCT3101-T99.7499: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXSOLD-26OCT3101-T99.4999: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXSOLD-26OCT3101-T99.2499: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
- KXSOLD-26OCT3101-T98.9999: NO (Oct 31, 2026)
