Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (about an hour ago): The model's "Up" probability decreased by -22.4pp, leading the market's movement.
- Market probability for "Up" also declined by -19.0pp, compressing the edge by -3.4pp.
- The confidence score held steady at 5.0 (+0.0pp) over the period.
- Up is the favored outcome; minimal historical volatility suggests limited price movement.
- CME futures open anticipates minimal short-term impact on Bitcoin price movement.
Current Context
Sources (10)
- 1Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET | Wormworm.wtf
- 2Bitcoin price: overnight low and the weekly closecryptoticker.io
- 3Bitcoin Price Crashes to $62,000: Will $60,000 Hold?cryptoticker.io
- 4Bitcoin Signal & Price Prediction Today, Nov 15 – BTCkumocast.io
- 5Bitcoin Plunges Below $66K: ETF Outflows Accelerate, Fed Hawkishness Weighs — November 15, 2026 | AInvestainvest.com
- 6Bitcoin price prediction for November 15, 2026: Tyler S's viewbuycrypt.com
- 7Bitcoin price prediction for November 14, 2026: 9 bloggers' viewsbuycrypt.com
- 8Bitcoin price analysis: BTC continues to decline Saturday, entering 'deep value zone'coindesk.com
- 9Winrate.io - Bitcoin Volatility Index Hour by Hourwinrate.io
- 10Polymarketpolymarket.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 November 15, 2026: 44.0pp drop
Price decreased from 50.5% to 6.5%
Outcome: Up
Sources (8)
- 1Bitcoin Price Crashes to $62,000: Will $60,000 Hold?cryptoticker.io
- 2Bitcoin hits four-month low as sell-off wipes out US$2 billion in crypto bets - The Business Timesbusinesstimes.com.sg
- 3Crypto news: Bitcoin price falls to $64,962, lowest since July as investors favour AI stocks, factor likely Fed hike | Stock Market Newslivemint.com
- 4As it happened: Bitcoin slides toward $63,000 as ETF outflows and liquidations mountmoneyvision.net
- 5Why Is Bitcoin Down? Sixth Weekly Loss Nearsblockchainreporter.net
- 6Bitcoin tumbles to three-month low as liquidations accelerate | The Straits Timesstraitstimes.com
- 7Peter Schiff Sounds Bitcoin Crash Alarm as Nearly $9 Billion Leaves Stablecoinscoinedition.com
- 8[KOL 인덱스] “비트코인 6만6000달러 하회” 커뮤니티 관심 집중… 청산·극단적 공포 언급 확산 外 | 토큰포스트tokenpost.kr
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin for the November 15, 12:45-1:00 AM ET range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range; otherwise, it resolves to "Down." Resolution is based exclusively on the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink (https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams), disregarding other sources or spot markets. The market's resolution period concludes at 1:00 AM ET on November 15, 2026.
Market Discussion
The "Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET" market closed at 06:00 UTC on November 15, 2026, with pre-close odds of approximately 50.5–51% for "Up" against 49% for "Down" [1][2][3][4]. Trader activity on this and adjacent 15-minute markets showed minimal liquidity and no strong consensus, indicating a near-coin-flip with small, mixed directional bets before resolution [2][5]. These 15-minute Bitcoin Up/Down markets are a highly active prediction market series overall, with one platform's version logging $4.5 billion in turnover over 30 days [6].
Sources (6)
- 1Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET | Wormworm.wtf
- 223:53:56 Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ETfuture.news
- 3Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 4Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 5Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET — 100.0% Odds, Analytics & Smart Money | Accrue | Accrueaccrue.com
- 6Prediction Market Historical Data — Kalshi, Polymarket, predict.fun & OG.comcryptostruct.com
5. Trust Index
Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.
6. How might the CME Bitcoin futures weekly open at 1:00 AM ET on November 15 influence BTC price volatility in the preceding 15-minute resolution window?
| CME Influence on BTC Volatility | Limited influence in 15-minute window (12:45 AM – 1:00 AM ET on November 15) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| CME Weekly Settlement Timing | Roughly 13 hours after 12:45–1:00 AM ET window [1][2] |
| Pre-window Market Odds | Coin flip (Up 50.5¢ / Down 49.5¢ on Polymarket; 51% Up on Worm) [4][3] |
Sources (4)
7. What do open interest and funding rates on major exchanges like Binance and Bybit suggest about trader positioning for Bitcoin ahead of mid-November 2026?
| Implied Spot Price | Near $66,000 as of Nov 15, 2026 02:40 UTC [1] |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin above $62,000 on Nov 17, 2026 | 77% [1] |
| Bitcoin hit $60,000 in 2026 (full year) | 65% probability [1] |
Sources (6)
- 1Bitcoin price prediction markets: live odds | PredictRipspredictrips.com
- 223:53:56 Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ETfuture.news
- 3Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET | Wormworm.wtf
- 4Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 5BTC Up or Down 15mpolymarket.com
- 6Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Odds | Polymarket | Fear & Greedfeargreedflow.com
8. How does recent flow data from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, such as those from BlackRock and Fidelity, compare with the speculative positioning in perpetual futures markets?
| Net outflow on Oct 8, 2026 | -$244.1M (October 8, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| 7-day total outflow | -$558M (ending October 8, 2026) [1] |
| Net inflow on Jul 3, 2026 | +$221.7M (July 3, 2026) [2] |
Sources (4)
- 1Bitcoin ETF Flows Today — Inflows & Outflows | CryptoSignalAPPcryptosignalapp.com
- 2Spot BTC ETFs Add $221.7M as IBIT Sheds $40M — Zippzippfeed.com
- 3Bitcoin News: Bitcoin ETFs Post Fourth Consecutive Day of Inflows — IBIT Leads With $136 Million as Weekly Total Hits $75.5 Millioncoinlive.com
- 4Bitcoin ETFs Update: Net Inflows Drop by -$492.11 Million as IBIT Leads with -$463.10 Million Outflowcryptonewsland.com
9. What does historical volatility data for Bitcoin show for the Sunday 12:45 AM - 1:00 AM ET window, and how does this inform expectations for the November 15 market?
| Current Odds (Nov 15, 2026) | 50.5% Up / 49.5% Down [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Market Liquidity (Nov 15, 2026) | $11.7K [1][2][3][4] |
| Historical Trading Pattern | Approximately 50-51% Up with minimal volume [1][3][4] |
Sources (6)
- 1Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET | Wormworm.wtf
- 2Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 323:53:56 Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ETfuture.news
- 4Bitcoin price prediction markets: live odds | PredictRipspredictrips.com
- 5BTC Up or Down 15mpolymarket.com
- 6Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Odds | Polymarket | Fear & Greedfeargreedflow.com
10. What do on-chain metrics, particularly exchange netflows and whale wallet activity, indicate about accumulation or distribution trends for Bitcoin leading into November 2026?
| Bitcoin Prediction Market Implication | Low-$60Ks (as of Nov 15, 2026 02:40 UTC) [1] |
|---|---|
| Market Bias for November | Higher probability for downside tags at $60K than upside tags at $70K [1] |
| Major Whale Market Position | Several large wallets held Down at 50¢ (November 2026) [2][3] |
Sources (7)
- 1Bitcoin price prediction markets: live odds | PredictRipspredictrips.com
- 2ZjYiJfKz9: Polymarket Positions & Trades | Fear & Greedfeargreedflow.com
- 3xyZV9Wkl: Polymarket Positions & Trades | Fear & Greedfeargreedflow.com
- 4Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET | Wormworm.wtf
- 5Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 623:53:56 Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ETfuture.news
- 7Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Odds | Polymarket | Fear & Greedfeargreedflow.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: November 15, 2026
Sources (9)
- 1Bitcoin Price Crashes to $62,000: Will $60,000 Hold?cryptoticker.io
- 2Bitcoin price: overnight low and the weekly closecryptoticker.io
- 3The Week Ahead: November 9–15chemistdefi.com
- 4Bitcoin falls below $64,000 as ETF outflows extend to seventh straight dayfinance.yahoo.com
- 5Crypto news: Bitcoin price falls to $64,962, lowest since July as investors favour AI stocks, factor likely Fed hike | Stock Market Newslivemint.com
- 6Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET | Wormworm.wtf
- 7Bitcoin Signal & Price Prediction Today, Nov 15 – BTCkumocast.io
- 8Bitcoin price analysis: BTC continues to decline Saturday, entering 'deep value zone'coindesk.com
- 9Week Ahead: Fed Minutes, US Retail Sales And Nvidia Earnings Test Bitcoin At 67,200 As Majors Hit Triangle Support | Technical Analysis - Crypto Report | 14 Nov 2026 - Capital Street FXcapitalstreetfx.com