US SPR level for the week ending November 6, 2026
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- The SPR level at 279.5 million barrels confirms outcomes 'Above 279M'.
- Outcomes 'Above 280M' are confirmed 'No'; the SPR fell below this.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 279M | 90.0% | 100.0% | The DOE confirmed SPR level of 279.5 million barrels is above 279 million barrels. |
| Above 281M | 1.0% | 0.0% | The DOE confirmed SPR level of 279.5 million barrels is not above 281 million barrels. |
| Above 278M | 94.0% | 100.0% | The DOE confirmed SPR level of 279.5 million barrels is above 278 million barrels. |
| Above 280M | 1.0% | 0.0% | The DOE confirmed SPR level of 279.5 million barrels is not above 280 million barrels. |
| Above 277M | 99.0% | 100.0% | The DOE confirmed SPR level of 279.5 million barrels is above 277 million barrels. |
Current Context
Sources (17)
- 1Oil stocks in US strategic petroleum reserve fall to lowest level since 1982 - DAWN.COMdawn.com
- 2La Jornada - Reserva Estratégica de Petróleo de EU cuenta con 279.5 millones de barriles, la cifra más baja desde 1982jornada.com.mx
- 3US Strategic Oil Reserves Fall to Lowest Level Since 1982 - Pakistan Timespakistantimes.com
- 4US Crude Inventories Post Largest Weekly Build Since Julytradingeconomics.com
- 5OIL: EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - Week to Jul 3 - 07-08-2026 | MNImnimarkets.com
- 6U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Hits 1982 Low After 3.7M Barrel Weekly Decline | Gate Newsgate.com
- 7Post by @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social — Blueskybsky.app
- 8Oil Inventories and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — The Baratelli Institutebaratelliinstitute.com
- 9The oil slump has gone too far. Where prices could go next. | Mintlivemint.com
- 10Eco Week November 9, 2026– Economic Research – BNP Paribaseconomic-research.bnpparibas.com
- 11OPEC+ Expected to Maintain Current Oil Production Levels Through End of 2026 - Financial Arabiafinancialarabia.com
- 12Strait of Hormuz Reopening in Sight? Don’t Be Optimistic Too Early: Energy Executives Bet on November, Oil Prices Could Hit $200.tradingkey.com
- 13Take Five: Tech wreck and roll By Reutersinvesting.com
- 14US SPR level for the week ending November 6, 2026 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 15Houston Energy Market Calendar | Houston Energy Workshoustonenergyworks.com
- 16OPEC Calendar of Meetings and Reportstradingeconomics.com
- 1721 January 2026iea.blob.core.windows.net
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 278M
📈 November 09, 2026: 87.0pp spike
Price increased from 7.0% to 94.0%
📉 November 08, 2026: 63.0pp drop
Price decreased from 70.0% to 7.0%
Outcome: Above 281M
📉 November 06, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 58.0% to 43.0%
Outcome: Above 277M
📈 November 05, 2026: 55.0pp spike
Price increased from 29.0% to 84.0%
Sources (6)
- 1Oil stocks in US strategic petroleum reserve fall to lowest level since 1982 - DAWN.COMdawn.com
- 2US SPR level for the week ending November 6, 2026 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 3La Jornada - Reserva Estratégica de Petróleo de EU cuenta con 279.5 millones de barriles, la cifra más baja desde 1982jornada.com.mx
- 4USO −12.2%, XLE −11.3%: US Loans 8.5 Million Barrels of SPR Oil in Second Batch Since Iran War (Nov 1, 2026) | Geopolitics Alphageopoliticsalpha.com
- 5US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to 282.2Mln Barrels, Lowest Since October 1982 - DOEsputnikglobe.com
- 6Oil stocks in US strategic petroleum reserve fall to lowest level since 1982 - DAWN.COMdawn.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves "YES" if the reported US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) level for the week ending November 6, 2026, is above 283 million barrels. Conversely, it resolves "NO" if the SPR level is 283 million barrels or below for that same week. Trading for this market commences on November 11, 2026, at 9:30 am EST, and the market is expected to resolve on or around this date. No special settlement conditions are specified.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 277M | $1.00 | $0.05 | 99% |
| Above 278M | $1.00 | $0.08 | 94% |
| Above 279M | $1.00 | $0.09 | 90% |
| Above 280M | $0.09 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 281M | $0.06 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 282M | $0.06 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 283M | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 284M | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 285M | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 286M | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 287M | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 288M | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) level for the week ending November 6, 2026, fell to 279.5 million barrels, marking the lowest level since October 8, 1982, according to US Department of Energy data released November 9, 2026 [1][2]. This figure follows an approximately 135.9 million barrel decline from March 6, 2026, as part of a US agreement to release 172 million barrels, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright announcing plans in March 2026 to release 170 million barrels [1][2][3][4][5]. The Public.com prediction market for this week's SPR level reflected strong conviction, showing 'Above 277M' at 99% and 'Above 278M' at 94% probability [6].
Sources (6)
- 1Oil stocks in US strategic petroleum reserve fall to lowest level since 1982 - DAWN.COMdawn.com
- 2La Jornada - Reserva Estratégica de Petróleo de EU cuenta con 279.5 millones de barriles, la cifra más baja desde 1982jornada.com.mx
- 3Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Level: 282.2M bbl (Oct 30, 2026)thevaultreport.com
- 4EIA History - 2026 | TankerTrackers.com, Inc.tankertrackers.com
- 5Recent oil shocks have led last two U.S. administrations to draw down petroleum reserve | Pew Research Centerpewresearch.org
- 6US SPR level for the week ending November 6, 2026 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
5. Trust Index
Largest single print on KXSPRLVL-26NOV11-T279 carried 36% of its $2,567 tape (window is 100% of 24h flow)
Integrity risk· Large trades
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. What crude oil price threshold would likely compel the Department of Energy to begin replenishing the SPR ahead of its 2027 schedule?
| Likely SPR replenishment trigger | Below $65 WTI (analytical estimate) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| SPR replenishment watch zone | $65–$70 WTI (analytical estimate) [1][2][3] |
| Recent SPR purchase (barrels) | 1 million barrels (late-2025/early-2026 delivery) [2][3] |
7. What evidence from refinery processing data and crude inventory reports in Q3-Q4 2026 supports JP Morgan's claim of a 1.4 million bpd market surplus?
| US Crude Inventories > 409M barrels | 65% (week ending November 6, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| US Crude Inventories > 410M barrels | 55% (week ending November 6, 2026) [1] |
| Nov 2026 Refinery Utilization > 88% | 99% odds (prediction market) [2] |
8. How do the November 2026 global oil demand forecasts from the IEA's Oil Market Report and OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report compare?
| IEA 2026 Global Oil Demand Forecast | 102.4 million barrels per day (October 2026 report) [1] |
|---|---|
| IEA 2026 YoY Demand Decrease | 2.6 million barrels per day (October 2026 report) [1] |
| OPEC 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth | About 1.4 million barrels per day (November 2025, March 2026, April 2026 materials) [2][3][4] |
9. What are the precise release dates for the key oil market reports from the EIA, IEA, and OPEC scheduled for November and December 2026?
| EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Release Date | Wednesday, November 11, 2026 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| EIA Report Release Time | 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM UTC) [1][2][3] |
| EIA Report Week Ending | November 6, 2026 [1][2][3] |
10. How might a potential end to the Iran war before year-end 2026 alter the Department of Energy's strategy for SPR releases?
| SPR stabilization target | 279-280 million barrels [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Market expectation of new SPR release | At least one before January 1, 2027 [1] |
| Market median US SPR level | 279.481 million barrels (week ending November 6, 2026) [3][4][5][6] |
Sources (7)
- 1Will the U.S. announce a new SPR release before 2027? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 2Commodities | Prediction Markets | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3US SPR level for the week ending November 6, 2026… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4US SPR level for the week ending November 6, 2026 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 5US SPR level for the week ending November 6, 2026 odds: Above 277M 99% on Kalshipredictdesks.com
- 6US SPR level for the week ending November 6, 2026 | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 7US SPR level for the week ending November 6, 2026 - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 18, 2026
- Closes: November 11, 2026
Sources (11)
- 1Oil stocks in US strategic petroleum reserve fall to lowest level since 1982 - DAWN.COMdawn.com
- 2La Jornada - Reserva Estratégica de Petróleo de EU cuenta con 279.5 millones de barriles, la cifra más baja desde 1982jornada.com.mx
- 3Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Level: 282.2M bbl (Oct 30, 2026)thevaultreport.com
- 4US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Chart | StorageCurvestoragecurve.com
- 5US SPR level for the week ending November 6, 2026 Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 6Oil Weekly Outlook: 9th–13th November 2026 | Ares Trading Labarestradinglab.com
- 7Calendar | Energy EXCHenergyexch.com
- 8Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Trump Holds Fire on Iran, Can WTI Hold $85.03? | FXEmpirefxempire.com
- 9Crude Oil (Brent) Future Outlook Analysis (2026) | KoalaGainskoalagains.com
- 10Oil's week brings three monthly outlooks, starting with the EIA on Tuesday · WiseWallet Insightswisewallet.eu
- 11Week in Focus – 9-13th November 2026: Highlights include US CPI, China inflation, UK GDP, BoJ SOO and NZ elections | Newsquawknewsquawk.com
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSPRLVL-26NOV04-T288: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
- KXSPRLVL-26NOV04-T287: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
- KXSPRLVL-26NOV04-T286: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
- KXSPRLVL-26NOV04-T285: NO (Nov 04, 2026)
- KXSPRLVL-26NOV04-T284: NO (Nov 04, 2026)