Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in Q1 2027

Sweetgreen's recent margins show decline, but management expects some recovery. Q3 2026 restaurant-level profit margin was 10.4% ^{[1][2][3][4][5][6][7]}, a 270 basis point year-over-year decrease from 13.1% ^{[1][2][3][4][5][6][7]}. This was on $18.3 million in profit from $176.0 million in revenue ^{[1][2][3][4][5][6][7]}. Management estimated the underlying annualized restaurant-level profit margin at approximately 14% after adjusting for seasonality and excluding one-time costs, prior to additional labor and cost-of-sales efficiencies ^[2][3][6]. For fiscal year 2026, Sweetgreen updated guidance (as of November 5, 2026) for restaurant-level profit margin to 11.0% to 11.5% ^{[1][3][4][5][6]}. Q4 2026 restaurant-level margin is expected at approximately 11% ^[2][3][6], including about 60 basis points of one-time costs ^[2][3][6]. Q4 and Q1 are typically seasonally lower margin periods; Q4 margins are 250 to 300 basis points below the full-year average ^[2][3][6]. Q1 2026 margin was 10.0%, an 800 basis point year-over-year decrease from 17.9% ^{[8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]}, driven by a -12.8% same-store sales decline, higher ingredient usage, and increased promotional activity ^{[8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]}. A multi-state cyclosporiasis outbreak since mid-July 2026 also reduced Q3 traffic and pressured consumer demand, contributing to a -6.4% same-store sales decline in Q3 2026 ^{[7][9][10][16]}.

Sweetgreen plans margin improvements, while analysts foresee continued losses. Sweetgreen anticipates approximately 150 basis points of restaurant-level margin improvement in fiscal year 2027 from food-cost initiatives ^[2][3][6]. Counteracting this, a new head coach incentive program and annual salary increases for team members are projected to negatively impact 2027 restaurant-level margin by approximately 25 basis points ^[2][3][6]. FY2027 net new restaurant openings are expected to be about half of FY2026's level of approximately 10 openings ^{[1][3][4][5][6]}. As of late October 2026, 14 analysts cover Sweetgreen with a consensus 'Outperform' rating and an average price target of $8.00 ^[17][18]. This implied approximately 19.9% downside from the ~$9.99 stock price ^[17][18]. Analyst consensus for FY2027 estimates revenue of approximately $739–$768 million, net income of approximately $(101) million, and EPS of approximately $(0.56) to $(0.71) ^{[19][20][21][22]}. SimplyWallSt forecasts Sweetgreen's earnings to decline at -51.7% per year over the next three years, with revenue growth of approximately 7% per year ^{[19][20][21][22]}. Q1 2027 earnings, for the fiscal quarter ending approximately March 2027, are expected in early May 2027 ^{[5][23][21][24][25]}. No dedicated Q1 2027 restaurant-level profit margin prediction market was found ^[13][26].