Short Answer

Fernando Botero's 'The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck' (1978) is expected to sell for at least $1 million, driven by Christie's pre-sale estimate, a market median near $1.409 million, and a third-party guarantee. The market prices this outcome as likely at 87.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The dominant price driver in this market was the November 11 announcement of a formal partnership between Kalshi and Artnet. This agreement established Artnet as the official art data partner for Kalshi's art prediction markets. The news immediately preceded a spike in the implied probability that Fernando Botero's "The Arnolfini Portrait" would sell for over $1 million, suggesting the partnership lent data-driven credibility to the painting meeting or exceeding its low estimate.
Following the announcement, the market's probability surged from 20% to 87%. This level implies strong conviction that the final sale price will surpass the $1 million threshold. The painting carries a pre-sale estimate from Christie's of $1 million to $1.5 million. No other reported developments coincide with earlier, smaller price movements.
  • The painting is likely to sell above $1M due to a third-party guarantee.
  • Christie's pre-sale estimate of $1M-$1.5M supports a price above $1.25M.
  • A market median of $1.409M indicates strong demand for lot 45A.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above $1.25M 87.0% 92.0% The market median and third-party guarantee support the painting selling above $1.25M.
Above $1M 87.0% 94.0% The Christie's estimate, market median, and third-party guarantee support selling above $1M.
Above $1.5M 0.0% 20.0% A third-party guarantee and the pre-sale estimate strongly support the sale price above $1.5M.
Above $1.75M 0.0% 15.0% The Christie's pre-sale estimate concludes at $1.5M, limiting strong support for $1.75M.
Above $2M 0.0% 5.0% The Christie's pre-sale estimate range ends at $1.5M, offering minimal support for $2M.

Current Context

Fernando Botero's The Arnolfini Portrait lot 45A is estimated at $1-1.5 million. The oil on canvas work, signed and dated 'Botero 78', measures 53 x 46 1/2 inches (134.6 x 118.1 cm.) [1][2]. It is scheduled for sale at Christie's New York 20th Century Evening Sale (sale 24266) on November 17, 2026, at 6:30 PM EST. As of November 12, 2026, the realized sale price is not yet available [1][3][2]. The painting's provenance includes Galerie Brusberg, Pamela Auchincloss Gallery, and the late owner, who acquired it in December 1995. The lot carries a third-party guarantee [1][2].
Prediction markets show a $1.409 million median price for this lot. As of November 12, 2026, the market indicates a 67% probability for a price above $1 million, 60% for above $1.25 million, 44% for above $1.5 million, 39% for above $1.75 million, and 38% for above $2 million [4][5][6][7]. The market resolves on November 18, 2026, based on the sale price, including the buyer's premium, as reported by Artnet. Artnet's 'P' designation signifies inclusion of the buyer's premium, while 'H' indicates the hammer price only. The market is set to close early if price data becomes public before resolution [5][6].
Botero's market strengthened after his death in September 2023 at age 91. His total auction sales increased from $9.7 million in 2020 to $21.2 million in 2023 [8]. His auction record stands at $5.1 million, set in 2024 for The Musicians (1979) at Christie's. The artist's most expensive sculpture, a 10-foot bronze Horse, sold for $4.9 million at Sotheby's New York in November 2024 [8]. The upcoming 20th Century Evening Sale is part of Christie's New York 20/21 Fall Marquee Week 2026, which features over 850 artworks estimated to achieve more than $800 million [9][10]. The November 17 evening sale is the premier event of the week, offering 79 works with combined estimates ranging from $550.9 million to $797.8 million, including pieces by Kandinsky, Klimt, Matisse, Picasso, and Botero [9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1FERNANDO BOTERO (1932-2023), The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck | Christie'schristies.com
  2. 2FERNANDO BOTERO (1932-2023) The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck...lot-art.com
  3. 3Fernando Botero (1932-2023) – The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck | Christie's 2026 | CollectWiselycollectwisely.com
  4. 4Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  5. 5Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 6Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  7. 7Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  8. 8Estate Sales and Artist Deaths: How Supply Shocks Affect Prices | Masterworks Academymasterworks.com
  9. 9Christie’s New York 20/21 Fall Marquee Weekpress.christies.com
  10. 10New York November 2026 auctions: dates and top lotsartex24.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 November 11, 2026: 87.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 87.0%

Outcome: Above $1M

What happened: The primary driver of the 87.0 percentage point spike was the traditional news announcement on November 11, 2026, that Kalshi and Artnet had formed a formal partnership [1]. This agreement designated Artnet as the official art data partner for Kalshi's art prediction markets, launching ahead of New York's marquee auction week [1]. This announcement is explicitly identified as the primary catalyst for the surge in the 'Entertainment Collectibles, Art Above $1M' category [1]. Social media activity was not a primary driver, as no relevant posts or viral narratives are mentioned in the provided information.
Sources (1)
  1. 1Kalshi and Artnet partner to bring art market expertise to prediction marketsnews.kalshi.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the sale price of "Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A)" is greater than $1,000,000.00. Conversely, it resolves NO if the sale price is $1,000,000.00 or less. The maximum payout date for this market is November 18, 2026, with no specific special settlement conditions described in the provided content.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above $1.25M $0.83 $0.49 87%
Above $1M $0.84 $0.42 87%
Above $1.5M $0.79 $0.86 0%
Above $1.75M $0.69 $0.91 0%
Above $2M $0.67 $0.97 0%

Market Discussion

Fernando Botero's 'The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck' (1978; lot 45A), with an estimate of USD 1,000,000–1,500,000, is scheduled for auction on November 17, 2026, with its sale price awaiting publication as of November 12, 2026 [1][2][3]. Kalshi hosts a dedicated prediction market for this lot, which is currently showing as pre-trading [3]. While market operators promote art prediction markets as providing essential financial infrastructure for an illiquid asset class, art world professionals view them as "pretty silly" and question their seriousness, citing concerns over opacity, information asymmetry, and potential insider manipulation due to low trading volumes [4][5][6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1FERNANDO BOTERO (1932-2023), The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck | Christie'schristies.com
  2. 2Fernando Botero (1932-2023) – The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck | Christie's 2026 | CollectWiselycollectwisely.com
  3. 3Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  4. 4We Bet on Kalshi's Art Auctions. Here's What Happenedurgentmatter.press
  5. 5Kalshi Introduces Art Market Bettingartforum.com
  6. 6Prediction Markets Come to Art: Bet on Basquiat and Monet with Kalshiartnews.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 78 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score51Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 25% of the price to slippage.

Trust score78Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
85Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
65Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

2 contracts · worst first · 3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above $1M65
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Above $1.25M65
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
77Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

2 contracts · worst first · 3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above $1.25M68
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 24h

Above $1M87
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first · 3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above $1M100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $1.25M100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
51Caution

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 65 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 16.8c slippage (~25% of a 67c contract)

$1,000 order: 17.0c slippage (~25% of a 67c contract)

$10,000 order: 17.0c slippage (~25% of a 67c contract)

3 below the volume floor — not scored

Above $1M65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality87Rule clarity100
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
87 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Above $1.25MPrimary65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality68Rule clarity100
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
68 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 12, 2026

6. How does 'The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck' (1978) compare to Fernando Botero's record-setting works like 'The Musicians' (1979) on key value drivers?

Auction Resolution DateNovember 18, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]
Market Median Implied Priceapproximately $1.409M [2][3][4][8][9]
Probability of Sale Price Exceeding $1.5M44% [2][3][4][8][9]
Direct comparison is limited by the absence of Botero's comparable sale data. A direct comparison between 'The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck' (1978) and Fernando Botero's record-setting works like 'The Musicians' (1979) on key value drivers is constrained by the lack of specific auction records or sale prices for Botero's comparable works in the research findings [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Key value drivers for 'The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck' (1978) include its status as a reinterpretation of a canonical Renaissance work, its 1978 creation date placing it in Botero's mature period, and its scheduled auction at Christie's New York 20th Century Evening Sale [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. This particular artwork is slated to resolve on November 18, 2026, with the reported sale price inclusive of the buyer's premium [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9].
Market analysis indicates varied probabilities for 'The Arnolfini Portrait' exceeding price thresholds. As of November 12, 2026, market analysis provides varying probabilities for 'The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck' (1978) to exceed specific sale price thresholds [2][3][4][8][9]. The probability of its sale price surpassing $1 million is estimated at 67-87%, while exceeding $1.25 million is estimated at 60-87% [2][3][4][8][9]. The likelihood of the price exceeding $1.5 million is 44%, exceeding $1.75 million is 39%, and exceeding $2 million is 38% [2][3][4][8][9]. The market's median implied price for this artwork is approximately $1.409 million [2][3][4][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  2. 2Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  4. 4Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  5. 5Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  6. 6Art Odds & Predictions 2026 | Kalshikalshi.com
  7. 7Collectibles Odds & Predictions 2026 | Kalshikalshi.com
  8. 8Will the realized auction sale price of The Arnolfini P… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  9. 9Will the realized auction sale price of The Arnolfini P… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

7. What does the auction performance of Botero's other paintings from his 'Old Masters' reinterpretations series indicate for this sale at Christie's?

Market median for 'The Arnolfini Portrait'$1.409M (as of November 12, 2026) [1][2]
Most likely sale price rangeBetween $1.25M and $1.5M (including buyer's premium) [1][2]
Market liquidity indicatorsLow trading volume and open interest [1][3]
Prediction market data offers insights into 'The Arnolfini Portrait's' upcoming sale. Information regarding the auction performance of Fernando Botero's 'The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck' (1978; lot 45A) is available through the Kalshi prediction market, which focuses on its sale at Christie's New York 20th Century Evening Sale on November 17, 2026 [1][3][2]. As of November 12, 2026, the market median for this specific painting is $1.409M [1][2]. The most likely sale price range predicted for the piece, including buyer's premium, is between $1.25M and $1.5M [1][2].
Limited market activity suggests potential price volatility for the painting. The prediction market for this particular sale exhibits low trading volume and open interest, which indicates limited liquidity and a potential for price volatility [1][3]. Furthermore, the provided facts do not contain information concerning the auction performance of Fernando Botero's other paintings from his 'Old Masters' reinterpretations series [1][3][2]. Therefore, assessing what their results might indicate for the upcoming sale of 'The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck' is not possible based solely on the available data.
Sources (3)
  1. 1Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  3. 3Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com

8. How might the performance of other major lots in Christie's 20th Century Evening Sale on November 17 influence the bidding environment for the Botero piece?

Warhol Self-Portrait odds above $14M65.5% [1]
Botero median sale priceapprox. $1.409M (including buyer's premium) [2][3][4]
Botero market quality rating31/100 (low quality) [5][3]
The performance of major lots could significantly influence the overall bidding environment. Andy Warhol's Self-Portrait (1986; lot 39A) is identified as a high-value item in Christie's sale 24266. Prediction market odds indicate a 65.5% chance of it exceeding $14M and a 46.5% chance of it surpassing $16M. Its successful performance is expected to set a positive tone for the evening, potentially impacting the bidding for other pieces, including the Fernando Botero artwork [1].
Predictions for the Botero piece indicate a mid-range sale price. The Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A), is also featured in the same Christie's sale [2]. Prediction market data, updated as of November 12, 2026, projects a median sale price of approximately $1.409M, inclusive of the buyer's premium [2][3][4]. There is a 67% probability that its price will exceed $1M, and a 38% probability of it surpassing $2M [2][3].
The Botero market exhibits low liquidity and potential price volatility. This is evidenced by its relatively low trading volume, which ranges from approximately $2.6K to $3K in 24-hour volume, and limited open interest [5][3]. Rated at 31/100, the market quality is categorized as low, suggesting that the limited liquidity could lead to price volatility as the sale date approaches [5][3]. While initial predictions on November 10, 2026, showed considerable uncertainty with all outcome tiers at 48.5%, market confidence evolved by November 12, 2026, favoring a mid-range outcome between $1.25M and $1.5M [3][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Tech Prediction Markets & Odds - Page 19 | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  2. 2Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  3. 3Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  4. 4Art Odds & Predictions 2026 | Kalshikalshi.com
  5. 5Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 6Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com

9. For marquee evening sales at Christie's and Sotheby's, what is the typical spread between the hammer price and the final price including buyer's premium reported by Artnet?

Typical Spread (Hammer to Final Price)Approximately 25-28% for major New York evening sales [1][2]
Spread DeterminantBuyer's premium percentage [1][2]
Fernando Botero Lot Resolution BasisArtnet-reported sale price including buyer's premium [3][1][2]
Final art sale prices typically include a significant buyer's premium. For marquee evening sales at Christie's and Sotheby's in major New York auctions, the typical difference between the hammer price and the final price (which incorporates the buyer's premium) is approximately 25-28%. This distinction is clearly communicated by the Artnet Price Database [1][2]. The buyer's premium percentage, a fixed rate added to the hammer price, directly determines this spread.
Artnet distinguishes between hammer prices and final prices. In the Artnet Price Database, 'P' indicates that the reported price includes the buyer's premium, while 'H' denotes the hammer price only. Consequently, for the Fernando Botero lot 45A market, the resolution will be based on the Artnet-reported sale price, which explicitly includes the buyer's premium [1][2][3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  3. 3Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com

10. How accurate have Christie's pre-sale estimates been for major Botero works sold since his death in September 2023?

Kalshi Market Median Valueapproximately $1.409M [1][2][3][4]
Above $1M and Above $1.25M Strike Prices87% [2][5][4]
Kalshi Market Trading Volume and Open Interestapproximately $2,000-$3,000 [1][2][3]
The provided research does not contain Christie's post-September 2023 Botero sale estimates. Therefore, it is not possible to assess the accuracy of Christie's pre-sale estimates for major Fernando Botero works sold since his death in September 2023 based on the given information. The research instead details a Kalshi prediction market for a specific work, "The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck" (1978; lot 45A), which is scheduled for sale at Christie's New York on November 17, 2026 [6][1][3][5].
A prediction market provides insights into one Botero work's expected value. This Kalshi market currently shows a median value of approximately $1.409 million [1][2][3][4]. Between November 10, 2026, and November 12, 2026, the market indicated increased confidence in a higher sale price, with the Above $1 million and Above $1.25 million strike prices both reaching 87% [2][5][4]. However, the market's 24-hour trading volume and open interest are relatively low, approximately $2,000-$3,000, suggesting limited liquidity [1][2][3]. It is important to note that these facts do not include Christie's pre-sale estimates for this or any other Botero work, nor do they provide data on the accuracy of such estimates for works sold after September 2023.
Sources (6)
  1. 1Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  3. 3Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  4. 4Art Odds & Predictions 2026 | Kalshikalshi.com
  5. 5Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  6. 6Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Fernando Botero's The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) is scheduled to sell at Christie's New York 20th Century Evening Sale (sale 24266) on November 17, 2026, at 6:30 PM EST [1][2][3]. The lot carries an estimate of USD 1,000,000 to USD 1,500,000 [1]. The presence of a third-party guarantee provides a bullish floor for the sale price [1][4].
The 20th Century Evening Sale on November 17 is the premier auction of Christie's New York 20/21 Fall Marquee Week 2026, featuring over 850 artworks estimated to achieve a total in excess of $800 million [3][4]. A public exhibition for all lots opens Saturday, November 7, 2026, serving as a key pre-sale catalyst for market sentiment [3]. The Kalshi prediction market (KXART-CHR45A17NOV26) currently shows a market median of approximately $1.409M, with outcome tiers including Above $1M (67%), Above $1.25M (60-63%), Above $1.5M (44%), Above $1.75M (39%), and Above $2M (38%) [5][6][7].
As of November 12, 2026, the auction has not yet occurred, and the actual sale price remains unrealized [2][4]. Bearish risk includes the possibility that guaranteed lots can make a sale appear healthy despite thin bidding, potentially leading the lot to fall to its guarantor [4]. The Kalshi market, launched May 26, 2026 [8][9], is set to resolve on November 18, 2026, based on sale prices via Artnet, inclusive of the buyer's premium [6][7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: February 16, 2027
  • Closes: November 18, 2026
Sources (9)
  1. 1FERNANDO BOTERO (1932-2023), The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck | Christie'schristies.com
  2. 2Fernando Botero (1932-2023) – The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck | Christie's 2026 | CollectWiselycollectwisely.com
  3. 3Christie’s New York 20/21 Fall Marquee Weekpress.christies.com
  4. 4New York November 2026 auctions: dates and top lotsartex24.com
  5. 5Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  6. 6Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 7Fernando Botero: The Arnolfini Portrait, after van Eyck (1978; lot 45A) sale price? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  8. 8Kalshi Sets 48% Odds That 2026's Priciest Auction Lot Will Clear $300 Millionmorrow.report
  9. 9Kalshi Rolls Out Prediction Markets Tied to Art Auctionsnews.artnet.com

13. Related News

+75.0pp
Last updated: November 12, 2026, 12:28 UTC

Christie's Estimate, Guarantee Drive Botero Painting Odds Above 80%

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14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 14 resolved YES, 6 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXART-SOT11007OCT26-3500000: NO (Oct 08, 2026)
  • KXART-SOT11007OCT26-3250000: NO (Oct 08, 2026)
  • KXART-SOT11007OCT26-3000000: NO (Oct 08, 2026)
  • KXART-SOT11007OCT26-2750000: NO (Oct 08, 2026)
  • KXART-SOT11007OCT26-2500000: YES (Oct 08, 2026)