Short Answer

Smile 2 is not expected to be the #2 US Netflix movie this week, with the market pricing it at 41% against a model probability of 25.1%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has remained static at a 1.0% probability, reflecting available streaming data from the week prior to resolution. For the week of August 24–30, 2026, Netflix's US chart showed 'The Whisper Man' in the #2 position, with 'Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look' ranked #1.
The consistent low pricing for 'Don' indicates a consensus that it is highly unlikely to displace the incumbent films. The absence of 'Don' from the top rankings in the preceding week gives traders no basis to expect it to surge to the runner-up spot. The market's flat trajectory and 7,106 contracts traded at this level show conviction in this outcome.
  • Since last update (~24h): Our model's edge flipped to -0.2pp, compressing by 1.2pp, and confidence dropped 1.0pp.
  • Facing El Chapo's probability declined 4.2pp (model) and 3.0pp (market), model-led with compressed edge.
  • Market probabilities for Smile 2 surged by 37.0pp, while Teenage Wasteland plummeted 78.0pp.
  • Smile 2 is the market's top pick, lacking specific performance drivers.
  • The Whisper Man was #2 last week, with strong initial audience engagement.
  • The Secret Woman ranked #4 last week, showing potential to move up.

Current Context

Netflix's US Top 10 for August 24–30, 2026, is recorded. For the week of August 24–30, 2026, 'The Whisper Man' was ranked as the #2 movie on the Netflix US Top 10 list [1][2][3]. During the same period, 'Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look' held the #1 position on the Netflix US chart [1][2].
Current records do not yet include September 3, 2026, Netflix data. The Netflix movie chart for the week of September 3, 2026, is not yet available in indexed records [4]. Current available records extend only up to early March 2026, making the requested September 3, 2026, date in the future relative to existing data [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Top 10 Most Popular Movies on Netflix Right Now in United Statesnetflix.com
  2. 2The Top 10 Movies On Netflix That Are Most Popular Right Nowdecider.com
  3. 3Top 10 Movies and Shows on Netflix: Week of August 24, 2026netflix.com
  4. 4‘Sherlock Holmes’ and All the Other Movies Coming To Netflix This Week - IMDbimdb.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: The Secret Woman

📉 September 03, 2026: 33.0pp drop

Price decreased from 70.0% to 37.0%

What happened: The provided research does not confirm "The Secret Woman" as the #2 US Netflix movie for the week of September 03, 2026; instead, it was ranked #4 on the US chart during the prior week of August 24-30, 2026, while "The Whisper Man" was #2 [1][2][3]. Furthermore, there is no evidence in the provided sources of a 33.0 percentage point drop for "The Secret Woman" on September 03, 2026, nor a specific social media catalyst linked to such a movement [4][5]. Consequently, social media activity appears irrelevant as a primary driver for the described market movement, as the underlying event itself is unsubstantiated by the research.

Outcome: Teenage Wasteland

📉 September 02, 2026: 90.0pp drop

Price decreased from 92.0% to 2.0%

What happened: The 90.0 percentage point drop for "Teenage Wasteland" on September 2, 2026, was primarily driven by the factual ineligibility of the film to be the #2 US Netflix movie that week. "Teenage Wasteland" is scheduled to premiere on Netflix on September 4, 2026 [6][7][8]. Therefore, as of September 2, 2026, it had not yet been released and could not appear on the daily Netflix Top 10 lists, leading to a market correction [9][10]. Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity was found.
Sources (10)
  1. 1Top 10 Most Popular Movies on Netflix Right Now in United Statesnetflix.com
  2. 2Top 10 Most Popular Movies on Netflix Right Now in United Statesnetflix.com
  3. 3The Top 10 Movies On Netflix That Are Most Popular Right Nowdecider.com
  4. 4Netflix's 'The Secret Woman' Draws 11.4M Views, Stock Dips 1.7% | StockTistockti.com
  5. 5‘Sherlock Holmes’ and All the Other Movies Coming To Netflix This Week - IMDbimdb.com
  6. 6Realscreen » Archive » Netflix slates Sundance doc acquisition, new crime miniseriesrealscreen.com
  7. 7Teenage Wasteland Documentary Coming to Netflix This Septemberthemovieblog.com
  8. 8Teenage Wasteland Trailer Highlights 1991 Coming‑of‑Age Investigationsmartcine.com
  9. 9TOP 10 on Netflix in the World on September 3, 2026 - FlixPatrolflixpatrol.com
  10. 10TOP 10 on Netflix in the United States on September 3, 2026flixpatrol.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market concerns which movie ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie for "this week." A "Yes" contract for a specific movie resolves to YES if that movie is confirmed as the #2 ranked US Netflix movie; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market is scheduled to resolve no later than September 8, 2026, and the provided content does not detail the specific ranking source or any special settlement conditions.

Market Discussion

For the week of August 24–30, 2026, The Whisper Man secured the #2 spot on the US Netflix Top 10 movie list with 23.2 million views [1][2]. It followed Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look, a 27-minute promotional gaming presentation, which was the #1 movie with 31.1 million views [1][2]. This outcome, where a promotional video topped traditional films, sparked social media commentary and was tracked by prediction markets, which had initially favored The Whisper Man for the top spot [3][4].

Sources (4)
  1. 1Top 10 Movies and Shows on Netflix: Week of August 24, 2026 - Netflix Tudumnetflix.com
  2. 2Netflix's Top Movie of the Week Is Just 27 Minutes Long - PopCulture.compopculture.com
  3. 3What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?polymarket.com
  4. 4Why Netflix only champions crap - Salon.comsalon.com

5. Trader Dashboard

This scorecard was computed Sep 3, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Trust profile
Event quality64
Healthy
Liquidity
52

16 contracts · worst first

Turning Point: Generation 9/114
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 256% vs realized 34%
Facing El Chapo4
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look5
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Teenage Wasteland5
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

The Last House30
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

A Child of My Own38
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Arthur the King38
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse54
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Smile 266
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 128% vs realized 4%
The Whisper Man72
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

The Secret Woman73
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 21% vs realized 4%
Don't Say Good Luck—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

The Dating App Killer: The Monica White Story—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

To Catch a Cheater—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

The Great Wall—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

16 contracts · worst first

Turning Point: Generation 9/1129
Unconfirmed · medium confidence

Unconfirmed move — light volume and/or it has partly reverted.

The Secret Woman60
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Teenage Wasteland64
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 24h

Smile 267
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Facing El Chapo71
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look72
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

The Whisper Man—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Don't Say Good Luck—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

The Dating App Killer: The Monica White Story—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

To Catch a Cheater—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

The Last House—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

The Great Wall—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

A Child of My Own—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Arthur the King—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
—Clear

Rules read clean and objective

16 contracts · worst first

Smile 2100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
The Secret Woman100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
The Whisper Man100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Turning Point: Generation 9/11100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Teenage Wasteland100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Don't Say Good Luck100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Facing El Chapo100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
The Dating App Killer: The Monica White Story100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
To Catch a Cheater100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
The Last House100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
The Great Wall100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
A Child of My Own100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Arthur the King100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Sep 3, 2026

6. What new movies scheduled for release on Netflix in late August and early September 2026 are most likely to enter the Top 10 chart?

Predicted Netflix Rank#2 US Netflix movie for week preceding Sept 8, 2026 [1]
The Whisper Man Release DateAugust 28, 2026 [1]
Prediction Market OddsNearly 100% implied odds [1]
The crime thriller "The Whisper Man" is highly anticipated for Netflix's Top 10. Released on August 28, 2026, this film is projected with high confidence to achieve significant viewership. Prediction markets indicate nearly 100% implied odds for "The Whisper Man" to be the number two US Netflix movie for the week preceding September 8, 2026 [1].
Several other movies are scheduled for release in early September 2026. Key titles include "Untold: Raygun: Breaking Badly" (September 1), "Turning Point: Generation 9/11" (September 2), "Gandhari" (September 3), "Why Did I Get Married Again?" (September 9), and "Call My Agent! The Movie" (September 10) [2][3][4][5]. However, the available information does not provide sufficient data to determine which of these specific films are most likely to achieve a position on the Top 10 chart.
Sources (5)
  1. 1What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?polymarket.com
  2. 2New on Netflix in September 2026 - Netflix Tudumnetflix.com
  3. 3List of Netflix original films (since 2026) - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  4. 45 new Netflix movies to watch in September - How-To Geekhowtogeek.com
  5. 5All the New Netflix Movies to Cozy Up with This Fallnetflix.com

7. What do social media sentiment and audience engagement data suggest about the staying power of late-August hits like 'The Whisper Man'?

Initial Views23.2 million (first three days) [1][2][3]
#2 Netflix Movie Odds98.7% (for week ending August 31, 2026) [4][5]
Key Cast MembersRobert De Niro, Michelle Monaghan, Adam Scott [3]
'The Whisper Man' shows strong initial performance and short-term staying power. Initial audience engagement data indicates robust performance, with the film accumulating 23.2 million views within its first three days [1][2][3]. This significant early viewership, alongside its A-list cast, contributes to a perception of strong short-term staying power [3]. Prediction markets further reinforce this outlook, overwhelmingly identifying the film as a heavy favorite to be the #2 US Netflix movie for the week ending August 31, 2026, with market-implied odds reaching as high as 98.7% [4][5].
Despite early success, concerns exist about the film's long-term staying power. While the film's strong start and prominent cast suggest a favorable short-term outlook, some market participants speculate that 'The Whisper Man' may exhibit a short shelf life, a pattern often observed with viral content on the platform [3]. The currently available research provides limited specific information about social media sentiment or more extensive audience engagement data that would definitively suggest the film's long-term staying power.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Netflix's New Robert De Niro Crime Thriller Is Officially a Streaming Hitcollider.com
  2. 2'The Whisper Man' Debuts As Seventh Biggest Movie of 2026 in...whats-on-netflix.com
  3. 3What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?polymarket.com
  4. 4What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?polymarket.com
  5. 5US Netflix Number 2 Movie Sep 1 Odds | Polymarket & Kalshipredictmarketcap.com

8. How does the historical Netflix performance of a family adventure film like 'Arthur the King' compare to a true-crime feature like 'The Dating App Killer'?

Arthur the King Peak RankNumber four shortly after August 11, 2026 release [1]
The Dating App Killer Ranking StatusNot tracking as a top-tier contender for #2 US Netflix movie in late August 2026 [2]
Probability for #2 US Netflix MovieLess than 1% for either film in late August 2026 [3][4][5][6]
Arthur the King had a strong initial showing on Netflix's US charts. The family adventure film premiered on Netflix on August 11, 2026, and subsequently reached a peak position of number four on the US movie charts before experiencing a gradual decline in its ranking [1].
Both films had a negligible chance of securing the #2 US Netflix ranking. The true-crime thriller The Dating App Killer: The Monica White Story, released in mid-2026, garnered niche appeal but was not considered a strong contender for the #2 US Netflix movie spot in prediction markets by late August 2026 [2][7]. Consistent prediction market data from that period indicated a less than 1% probability for either Arthur the King or The Dating App Killer to achieve the #2 US Netflix movie ranking for the week [3][4][5][6]. This suggested neither film was anticipated to reach that specific chart position during late August 2026.
Sources (7)
  1. 1Mark Wahlberg's 108-Minute Dog Adventure Movie Is Getting A...slashfilm.com
  2. 2The Dating App Killer Movie: Who Is Monica White? - Netflixnetflix.com
  3. 3Will Arthur the King be #2 US Netflix Movie on Aug 31, 2026? | Paritypredictparity.com
  4. 4https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-be-the-top-us-netflix-movie-this-week-20260825-1787152788415polymarket.com
  5. 5https://polymarket.copilot.markets/id/event/what-will-be-the-top-us-netflix-movie-this-week-20260825-1787152788415polymarket.copilot.markets
  6. 6Will Facing El Chapo be #2 US Netflix Movie on Aug 31, 2026? | Paritypredictparity.com
  7. 7Watch The Dating App Killer: The Monica White Story - Netflixnetflix.com

9. Which third-party analytics platforms provide the most reliable daily tracking of the Netflix US Top 10 movie chart?

Third-party tracking platformsFlixPatrol, What's on Netflix [1][2][3]
Official chart update dayEvery Tuesday [4]
Prediction market resolution sourcetop10.netflix.com [4][5]
Several third-party platforms offer reliable daily tracking of Netflix's Top 10 charts. FlixPatrol and What's on Netflix are widely recognized for their accurate daily tracking and historical analytics of Netflix's daily top 10 charts across various regions, including the US [1][2][3]. For automated data extraction, developers often utilize the Apify Netflix Tudum Top 10 scraper, which directly fetches Netflix's official weekly TSV datasets to ensure consistent and normalized record-keeping [6].
Netflix's official weekly chart provides the definitive source for rankings. Prediction markets, including Kalshi and Robinhood, host specific event contracts tied to weekly Netflix Top 10 rankings, which typically resolve based on the official weekly chart published on top10.netflix.com [4][5]. This official chart is updated every Tuesday, reflecting viewership data from the previous Monday through Sunday [4]. For instance, a prediction market contract for the #2 US Netflix Movie chart, resolving on September 8, 2026, specifically relies on this official Netflix data release for its outcome [4].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Netflix Top 10 Tools & Search Around the Worldwhats-on-netflix.com
  2. 2TOP 10 on Streaming in the World • FlixPatrolflixpatrol.com
  3. 3What's on Netflix - Netflix News, New Releases, and What to Watchwhats-on-netflix.com
  4. 4Top US Netflix Movie this week? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  5. 5#2 US Netflix Movie this week Culture Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  6. 6Netflix Tudum Top 10 Scraper - Apifyapify.com

10. How might the 2026 Labor Day holiday weekend viewership patterns affect the rankings of top contenders like 'Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse' and 'Freefall'?

Netflix US #2 Contender (Sept 6, 2026)Neither 'Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse' nor 'Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing' [1][2][3][4]
Freefall peak Netflix ranking#3 (week of August 17-23, 2026) [5][6][4]
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse current statusNot a primary contender for #2 weekly spot as of September 2026 [7][8][9]
Neither film is a top contender for the number two Netflix movie spot. As of September 3, 2026, 'Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse' and 'Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing' are not considered strong contenders for the second position on the US Netflix Movie chart for the week ending September 6, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. The current chart leaders include 'The Whisper Man', 'The Secret Woman', and 'Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look' [1][2][3][4]. Furthermore, the available research does not indicate how the 2026 Labor Day holiday weekend viewership patterns might influence the rankings of these specific films for this period.
Both films have experienced different trajectories on the streaming platform. 'Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing' was released in late August 2026 and initially achieved a peak of number three on the Top 10 list for the week of August 17-23, 2026 [5][6][4]. However, its ranking has since declined as newer content has been introduced to the platform [5][6][4]. In contrast, 'Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse' has consistently demonstrated strong long-term streaming performance throughout 2026, largely attributed to the popularity of its franchise [7][8][9]. Despite its sustained appeal, it is not currently positioned as a primary contender for the second weekly spot as of September 2026 [7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Top 10 Most Popular Movies on Netflix Right Now in United Statesnetflix.com
  2. 2What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?polymarket.com
  3. 3What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?polymarket.com
  4. 4What's on Netflix - Netflix News, New Releases, and What to...whats-on-netflix.com
  5. 5Outer Banks Strikes Gold at No. 1 in This Week's Top 10netflix.com
  6. 6'Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing' Netflix Review: Stream It...decider.com
  7. 7Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Swings To The Top Of Netflix...screenrant.com
  8. 8Nielsen: Animated 'Spider-Man' Movies, TV Shows Top Theatrical...mediaplaynews.com
  9. 9The Spider-Verse movies are dominating Spider-Man streaming...facebook.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key catalysts for movie prediction markets in September 2026 include festival premieres for awards-contending films, pre-sales momentum for major December releases, and the lack of critical reviews for highly anticipated prestige films [1].
Specifically, festival premieres such as the Venice Film Festival for awards-contending films are significant [1][2][3]. Pre-sales momentum for major December releases, including 'Avengers: Doomsday' and 'Dune: Part Three', is also a factor [1][4]. Furthermore, the absence of critical reviews for highly anticipated prestige films serves as a catalyst in these markets [1][2].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 14, 2026
  • Closes: September 08, 2026
Sources (4)
  1. 1'Dunesday' Odds Just Spiked, and Traders Think It's About to Break a Barbenheimer Recordcomicbasics.com
  2. 2Fjord at 68% for Best Picture With Zero Reviews | Prediction Huntpredictionhunt.com
  3. 3Wild Horse Nine Best Picture Odds Drop Before Venice | Prediction Huntpredictionhunt.com
  4. 4Avengers Doomsday box office odds: is 52¢ on Polymarket value? - The Fair Stakethefairstake.com

13. Related News

-90.0pp
Last updated: September 3, 2026, 12:12 UTC

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14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 19 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26AUG31-WHI: YES (Sep 01, 2026)
  • KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26AUG31-UNT: NO (Sep 01, 2026)
  • KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26AUG31-TOC: NO (Sep 01, 2026)
  • KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26AUG31-THEL: NO (Sep 01, 2026)
  • KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26AUG31-THEG: NO (Sep 01, 2026)