Who will play Felix Leiter in the next James Bond?
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Javier Bardem has strong ties to the announced Bond 26 director.
- Bond 26 production is scheduled for Q4 2026 / Q1 2027.
- No reputable industry sources report Felix Leiter chemistry reads.
- Creative Artists Agency successfully placed actors in recent Bond films.
- New James Bond actor casting will strongly influence Felix Leiter choice.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Hoogenakker | 11.0% | 2.9% | The provided background research identifies Javier Bardem as the actor with the strongest professional ties to both the confirmed director and key producers of Bond 26, which overwhelmingly implies a lower probability for John Hoogenakker to be cast as Felix Leiter based on these factors. |
| Wyatt Russell | 3.0% | 1.0% | The provided background research details strong professional ties for Javier Bardem to the Bond 26 director and producers but offers no evidence or specific citations related to Wyatt Russell's potential casting, making the debiased price of 1.0% fair based on this information. |
| Anthony Mackie | 13.0% | 3.6% | While the market assigns Anthony Mackie a 5.7% chance, the provided background research identifies Javier Bardem as the actor with the strongest professional ties to both the confirmed Bond 26 director and producers, and does not mention Anthony Mackie as having similar connections. |
| Albert Jones | 3.0% | 1.0% | The background research provides no specific evidence for Albert Jones playing Felix Leiter, yet this absence is consistent with the already low debiased market price of 1.0%, and the discussion of strong ties for Javier Bardem doesn't directly impact Albert Jones's prospects for the Felix Leiter role given Bardem's prior portrayal as a main villain. |
| Seth Numrich | 3.0% | 1.0% | The provided background research identifies Javier Bardem as the actor with the strongest ties to the Bond 26 director and producers, but offers no information, citations, or even mention of Seth Numrich, making any link to him for the role entirely speculative and supporting the debiased market price of 1.0%. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 March 24, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 11.0% to 3.0%
Outcome: Wyatt Russell
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content does not contain the contract rules, resolution triggers, key dates, or special settlement conditions for the "Who will play Felix Leiter in the next James Bond?" market. It only displays the market title and navigation links.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Yeun | $0.11 | $0.96 | 14% |
| Anthony Mackie | $0.16 | $0.93 | 13% |
| Aaron Staton | $0.09 | $0.99 | 11% |
| John Hoogenakker | $0.13 | $0.93 | 11% |
| Boyd Holbrook | $0.17 | $0.93 | 7% |
| Chiwetel Ejiofor | $0.14 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Albert Jones | $0.11 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Seth Numrich | $0.11 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Wyatt Russell | $0.11 | $0.98 | 3% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. What Actor Has Strong Ties to Bond 26 Director and Producers?
| Bond 26 Director | Denis Villeneuve [1], [2], [3], [4] |
|---|---|
| Eon Producers | Barbara Broccoli [5], Michael G. Wilson [6] |
| Key Actor Connection | Javier Bardem [1] |
Sources (7)
- 1Denis Villeneuve: Bond 26 directorthejamesbonddossier.com
- 2James Bond 26 Director Officially Announced (& Fans Will Be Excited) - IMDbimdb.com
- 3Bond 26 Lands Villeneuve - Denis Villeneuve will direct the next James Bond film - James Bond 007:: MI6 - The Home Of James Bondmi6-hq.com
- 4James Bond 26 | Denis Villeneuve announced as director - IMDbimdb.com
- 5https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbara_Broccolien.wikipedia.org
- 6Michael G. Wilsonen.wikipedia.org
- 7Denis Villeneuve - IMDbimdb.com
7. Do Potential Felix Leiter Actors Have Scheduling Conflicts for Bond?
| Next James Bond Film Production Window | Q4 2026 / Q1 2027 [1] |
|---|---|
| Wyatt Russell's Major Film Release | July 2025 ("Thunderbolts*") [2] |
| Anthony Mackie's Major Film Release | February 2025 ("Captain America: Brave New World") [3] |
8. Have Felix Leiter Actors Done Chemistry Reads With Bond Candidates?
| Felix Leiter Chemistry Reads Confirmed | No confirmation from reputable industry sources [1] |
|---|---|
| Specific Actor Participation Confirmed | No specific actor confirmed for chemistry reads or screen tests [1] |
| Reputable Casting Reports on Screen Tests | None regarding current Felix Leiter screen tests [1] |
Sources (5)
- 1Deadlinedeadline.com
- 2James Bond: Denis Villeneuve To Cast “Unknown” British Actordeadline.com
- 3Timothy Dalton Got Asked to Play James Bond in His 20s, but ‘I Said No… 24 or 25 Doesn’t Seem Right’ for 007 and ‘You Don’t Want to Follow Sean Connery’variety.com
- 410 Actors Who Would Be Perfect Casting for Felix Leiter in the Next James Bond Moviecollider.com
- 5Who will play Felix Leiter in the next James Bond? Odds & Market Details | Bitcoin.com Marketsmarkets.bitcoin.com
9. Which Talent Agencies Placed Actors in Recent Bond and Amazon MGM Films?
| James Bond Franchise Agency | Creative Artists Agency (CAA) placed Jeffrey Wright [1] |
|---|---|
| Amazon MGM Studios Agency | United Talent Agency (UTA) placed Chloe Fineman [2] |
| Jeffrey Wright's Bond Role | Felix Leiter in No Time to Die (2021) [1] |
Sources (4)
- 1No Time to Die (2021) - Full cast & crew - IMDbimdb.com
- 2Lena Headey & Chloe Fineman Join Amazon MGM’s ‘Red, White & Royal Wedding’ - IMDbimdb.com
- 3Jeffrey Wright | Speaking Fee, Booking Agent, & Contact Info | CAA Speakerscaa.com
- 4Chloe Fineman - Agent, Manager, Publicist Contact Infobookingagentinfo.com
10. How Will New James Bond Casting Affect Felix Leiter Choice?
| Speculated New Bond Actors | Aaron Taylor-Johnson (33), Regé-Jean Page (35), Michael B. Jordan (36) [1] |
|---|---|
| Potential Felix Leiter Actors | Callum Turner (33) [2], Boyd Holbrook (36) [3] |
| Key Influencers for Leiter Casting | Bond's age, on-screen persona, and ethnicity [4] |
Sources (5)
- 1Who will be the new James Bond Latest? Here are the 12 actors tipped to play 007 - full odds as Michael B. Jordan enters racescotsman.com
- 2https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Callum_Turneren.wikipedia.org
- 3Boyd Holbrooken.wikipedia.org
- 410 Actors Who Would Be Perfect Casting for Felix Leiter in the Next James Bond Moviecollider.com
- 5Felix Leiteren.wikipedia.org