Who will play Moneypenny in the next James Bond?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing for Naomie Harris as the next Moneypenny, with a 6.5% model probability versus 19.0% from the market, suggesting the market may be overestimating her chances of reprising the role.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This analysis covers the prediction market for Naomie Harris playing Moneypenny in the next James Bond film. The market shows a clear upward trend, with the probability rising from a starting point of 10.0% to its current level of 19.0%. The most significant event in the chart's history is a sharp 9.0 percentage point spike on April 5, 2026. This single event accounts for all the price appreciation in the market to date. Since that spike, the price has remained stable at the 19.0% level.
The direct cause for the significant price jump on April 5th is not apparent from the provided context, as no specific news or developments were cited. The total trading volume is extremely low at only 10 contracts, which suggests that the price movement was likely driven by a small number of participants and does not reflect broad market conviction. This low liquidity means that even small trades can have an outsized impact on the price. The chart has established a clear support level at the initial price of 10.0% and a new resistance level at the current high of 19.0%.
Overall, market sentiment has shifted positively but is based on very light trading activity. The price stabilization at 19.0% following the spike suggests that the new, higher probability is holding for now, but the lack of volume indicates uncertainty. The current price implies that traders see roughly a 1-in-5 chance of Naomie Harris reprising the role, a significant increase from the initial 1-in-10 odds, but still considers it an unlikely outcome.
- Producers hold primary authority over Moneypenny casting decisions for Bond 26.
- Moneypenny casting probabilities remain stable due to early production stages.
- Market consensus regarding Moneypenny casting appears premature currently.
- No clear frontrunner exists for the role of Moneypenny in Bond 26.
- Major James Bond 26 casting announcements are anticipated in 2025-2026.
- A notable shift in market sentiment occurred on April 5, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jodie Turner-Smith | 4.0% | 1.4% | Her compelling screen presence and diverse roles make her a strong candidate for the part. |
| Alison Oliver | 5.0% | 1.8% | An emerging actress gaining recognition from recent high-profile performances. |
| Phoebe Dynevor | 6.0% | 2.2% | Her rising star power from popular series could lead to new high-profile franchise roles. |
| Naomie Harris | 19.0% | 6.5% | She has already played Moneypenny in the previous three James Bond films. |
| Juno Temple | 4.0% | 1.4% | Her unique acting style and wide range of roles offer a fresh take on the character. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 05, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 10.0% to 19.0%
Outcome: Naomie Harris
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution occurs if Naomie Harris is officially announced or performs as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film; this includes if the film is cancelled after her announcement or if she is part of a multiple-person casting for the role. A "No" resolution is triggered if the film completes without her involvement, or if another person is officially announced as the sole performer for Moneypenny. The market is open from January 9, 2026, until it closes on January 1, 2031, with outcomes verified through 007.com.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naomie Harris | $0.20 | $0.90 | 19% |
| Phoebe Dynevor | $0.15 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Alison Oliver | $0.13 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Jodie Turner-Smith | $0.13 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Juno Temple | $0.14 | $0.96 | 4% |
| Emma Corrin | $0.12 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Jodie Comer | $0.13 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Meg Bellamy | $0.11 | $0.99 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score56Caution
Trade quality20% of score22Avoid
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score49High Risk
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
6. What Factors Determine Moneypenny Casting in Bond 26?
| Ultimate Decision Makers | Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson [1] |
|---|---|
| Casting Process Start | 2026 [1] |
| Key Casting Factors | New script requirements and franchise direction [2] |
The franchise producers primarily determine who plays Moneypenny in Bond 26. The final decision on who will portray Moneypenny in the next James Bond film, Bond 26, rests primarily with the franchise's long-standing producers, Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson. Their creative input is essential for all major casting choices. The overall casting process for Bond 26, including supporting roles like Moneypenny, is expected to commence in 2026 [1].
Producers weigh script requirements and strategic vision for casting. When making their selection, Broccoli and Wilson will evaluate several factors. These factors include the specific demands of the new script, which is reportedly underway [2], and their overarching strategic direction for the James Bond series. While various potential actors are speculated, the final choice rests with the producers. This decision will be integral to defining Moneypenny's character alongside the new James Bond, whose own casting process is also expected to commence around the same period [3].
7. What's the Latest on Moneypenny Casting in James Bond 26?
| Bond 26 Development Status | Early stages, with script work ongoing [1] |
|---|---|
| Moneypenny Casting News | No significant recent developments or data shifting probability [Implied from 4, 5, 7] [2] |
| Prediction Market Activity | Continues to reflect speculative interest pending announcements [2] |
Moneypenny casting probabilities remain stable due to early production stages. The probability for who will play Moneypenny in the next James Bond film has not seen significant shifts recently, primarily because the overall production of "James Bond 26" remains in its very early stages [3]. While updates indicate the project is "finally moving forward" after five years, with a script reportedly being developed [4], crucial decisions such as the casting of the new 007 actor and the director are still pending [1]. Producer Barbara Broccoli highlighted that finding the right director and lead actor is a "big concern," indicating that the foundational elements of the film are not yet established [3].
No specific Moneypenny casting announcements have emerged recently. Given this early phase of development, there are no recent concrete developments, data points, or announcements specifically related to the casting of supporting roles like Moneypenny. Without a confirmed script, director, or lead actor, specific casting for such roles is not yet underway [1]. Consequently, prediction markets continue to track speculative interest for the role [2], but these market activities largely reflect general anticipation and the absence of definitive news, rather than reactions to new information about specific casting choices for Moneypenny [Implied from 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7]. The focus remains on the broader production timeline and the eventual announcements of the new James Bond and director, which will precede any significant movement on supporting character casting [1].
Sources (4)
- 1James Bond 26 Script & New 007 Actor Casting Timeline Gets A Major Update - IMDbimdb.com
- 2Who will play Moneypenny in the next James Bond? — Prediction Market | OutcomeCastoutcomecast.com
- 3Bond 26 producer reveals her big concern as film remains in early stages | The James Bond Dossierthejamesbonddossier.com
- 4James Bond 26 Script & New 007 Actor Casting Timeline Gets A Major Updatescreenrant.com
8. Why is Moneypenny Casting Consensus Premature for Bond 26?
| Bond Actor Casting Expected | 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Moneypenny Casting Timeline | After Bond actor chosen [1] |
| Bond 26 Script Status | Under development [1] |
The current market consensus regarding who will play Moneypenny in the next James Bond film is premature due to early production stages. Official casting for this role is not anticipated until 2026, as the script for the upcoming Bond 26 film remains under development, indicating that the production is still in its very initial phases [2].
Moneypenny casting typically follows the selection of the new James Bond. The casting process for the new James Bond actor itself is currently projected to commence in 2026 [1]. Historically, the selection of supporting characters, such as Moneypenny, generally takes place after the lead actor for James Bond has been chosen [1].
Current market consensus on Moneypenny lacks official production or casting foundations. This timeline suggests that any prevailing market consensus is based on speculation rather than concrete production decisions or official casting calls [3]. Therefore, given that key casting decisions, including that of James Bond himself, are still several years away, any strong market consensus on who will play Moneypenny is highly anticipatory and lacks the foundation of official production timelines or announcements [2]. The field remains wide open, with current discussions largely driven by fan speculation and media suggestions.
9. Who is the frontrunner to play Moneypenny in Bond 26?
| Prediction Market Uncertainty | No Specific Actor (34%) [1] |
|---|---|
| Top Individual Candidate | Naomi Scott (27%) [1] |
| Official Casting Timeline | Not expected until 2026 [2], [3] |
Speculation about Moneypenny's casting shows no clear frontrunner currently. Prediction market participants indicate significant uncertainty regarding who will play Moneypenny in the upcoming Bond 26 film. One market suggests "No Specific Actor" has the highest probability at 34%, reflecting either an unmade decision or an unannounced candidate [1]. Among individual actors, Naomi Scott is the most favored with 27%, followed by Simone Ashley at 17%, Emma Corrin at 13%, and Anya Taylor-Joy at 5% [1]. Additionally, expert discussions mention Jodie Comer, Nicola Coughlan, Florence Pugh, Lashana Lynch, Maisie Williams, and India Amarteifio as potential candidates [4], [5].
Official sources confirm Bond 26 casting is years away. Despite ongoing speculative discussions, official reports indicate that the casting process for Bond 26 has not yet commenced [3]. Production for the next installment remains in its initial stages, with neither a confirmed script nor a director currently in place [3]. Consequently, casting for significant roles, including Moneypenny, is not expected to begin until 2026 [2]. This timeline suggests that current market and media conversations are based primarily on speculative picks rather than concrete production insights, reinforcing the absence of an official frontrunner for the role.
Sources (5)
- 1Who will play Moneypenny in the next James Bond? Odds & Market Details | Bitcoin.com Marketsmarkets.bitcoin.com
- 2Bond 26 casting to begin in 2026 | The James Bond Dossierthejamesbonddossier.com
- 3James Bond Casting Update Reveals Status of 007 Casting Processcomingsoon.net
- 4Casting Moneypenny For Bond 26: 10 Actors Who Would Be Perfect - IMDbm.imdb.com
- 5Casting Moneypenny For Bond 26: 10 Actors Who Would Be Perfectscreenrant.com
10. When Will Key Next James Bond Casting Decisions Be Announced?
| James Bond Casting Search Start | 2025 [1] or 2026 [2] |
|---|---|
| Major Cast Announcements | 2026 [3] |
| James Bond 26 Filming Start | Late 2026 [1] |
The timeline for "James Bond 26" anticipates major developments in 2025-2026. The initial casting search for the new 007 actor is projected to commence as early as 2025 [1], with some reports suggesting it will begin in 2026 [2]. This crucial phase for the lead role's casting will significantly influence subsequent roles, such as Moneypenny, and impact related prediction markets.
Official cast announcements will directly resolve Moneypenny's casting. While specific dates for the Moneypenny role are not isolated, the announcement of the new James Bond actor and other key cast members is widely expected in 2026 [3]. It is highly probable that the actress chosen for Moneypenny would be revealed around the same time as, or shortly after, the new James Bond actor, given the character's prominence. Such official announcements would definitively resolve the prediction market.
Production milestones in 2025-2026 will precede casting revelations. The commencement of filming for "James Bond 26" is projected for late 2026 [1]. Prior to filming, all major roles, including Moneypenny, must be cast and publicly announced. Therefore, any official news regarding the progression of the script, the selection of a director, or firming up the production schedule in 2025 or early 2026 could signal that casting announcements are imminent, thus significantly affecting market prices as speculation converges on potential candidates.
