Forgotten Island · Rotten Tomatoes score
Short Answer
The "Forgotten Island" Rotten Tomatoes score is expected to be above 85, supported by the film's maintained 100% Tomatometer score and positive critical reviews, despite potential for decline as additional reviews arrive. The market prices this outcome at 99.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market price collapsed after reports on September 25 indicated the Rotten Tomatoes score for 'Forgotten Island' had dropped from a perfect 100% to 98%. This news all but closed the path to the film retaining a perfect score, causing the contract's probability to fall to its current floor. High trading volume on September 25 shows conviction behind this repricing as the new score was absorbed by the market.
Leading up to the score change, the film's strong critical debut supported the market. 'Forgotten Island' was first reported with a 100% Tomatometer score on September 22, a figure it maintained through September 24 as the number of critic reviews grew from 28 to over 50. Earlier price spikes on September 14 and 15, while not tied to specific news in the available context, coincide with the period just before the initial score was released, likely reflecting building positive sentiment from early screenings or industry buzz.
- "Above 87" appears favored, reflecting the current 88% Rotten Tomatoes score.
- Higher thresholds face pressure from a sharp decline from an initial 100% score.
- "Above 99" is challenged by score volatility and a noted negative critic review.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 97 | 1.0% | 3.0% | Additional reviews may cause a slight dip from the current 100% score. |
| Above 90 | 98.0% | 88.0% | Film maintains 100% Tomatometer score with consistently positive critical reviews. |
| Above 95 | 41.0% | 25.7% | The film maintains a 100% Tomatometer score with strong critical acclaim. |
| Above 85 | 99.0% | 90.0% | Film maintains 100% Tomatometer score with consistently positive critical reviews. |
| Above 92 | 94.0% | 88.0% | The film maintains a 100% Tomatometer score with strong critical acclaim. |
Current Context
DreamWorks' 'Forgotten Island' receives strong critical acclaim post-release. As of September 25, 2026, the film's Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer is reported at 98% based on 15 critic reviews [1]. Earlier reports indicated a 100% score, debuting with 28 reviews on September 22 and holding at 100% with 54–55 reviews on September 24 [2]. While the current Rotten Tomatoes film page [3] does not expose a numeric Tomatometer in its snippet, earlier reports treated 100% as the well-supported score [3]. Critical reaction describes the animation as visually impressive, emotionally warm, and culturally grounded in Filipino oral tradition, leading some commentators to label it a potential DreamWorks crown jewel [2]. However, the score may decline as more reviews arrive, and the audience score remains under development [2]. An IMDb prediction list conflicts with the Rotten Tomatoes score, showing a 72 Metascore and a 7.6 user rating from approximately 1,100 ratings [4]. The Rotten Tomatoes score prediction contract is set to resolve Monday after wide release at 10:00 AM ET; the September 25 market priced Above 90 at 68¢, Above 92 at 65¢, and Above 95 at 18¢, suggesting traders favored a score above 90 but were less confident it would exceed 95 [5].
Opening weekend box office predictions for 'Forgotten Island' are mixed. The film had preview screenings on September 24, with US wide release on September 25, 2026 [3]. The opening-weekend box office period is September 25–27, with its associated market scheduled to resolve on September 27 [6]. International box office totals before the U.S. opening are reported at $2.718 million by The Numbers and $2.174 million by Box Office Mojo, indicating source-level disagreement; neither source shows domestic gross yet [7]. Forecasts for the opening weekend box office cluster around the high teens to low/mid-$20 millions: one analyst projected $18.2 million [8], Parity indicated a 22% probability for the $16–19 million bracket [6], and a Polymarket tracker reported $22–25 million at 52% on September 18 [9]. These figures represent market and forecast signals, not realized box office [6].
DreamWorks Animation's 'Forgotten Island' is its 50th animated feature. Directed by Joel Crawford and Januel Mercado, the PG-rated film has a 1h 49m runtime and centers on Filipino mythology, following best friends Jo and Raissa as they travel through a portal to Nakali to confront the Dreaded Manananggal [3]. The voice cast includes H.E.R. as Jo, Liza Soberano as Raissa, Dave Franco, Jenny Slate, Manny Jacinto, Dolly de Leon, Jo Koy, Ronny Chieng, and Lea Salonga [10]. DreamWorks announced the film and its September 25, 2026 theatrical release in December 2025, with the principal voice cast and premise reported in February 2026; production completed on March 25, 2026 [11]. The requested "Forgotten Island Entertainment" entity is not established by sources; the film is a DreamWorks Animation production distributed domestically by Universal [7].
Sources (11)
- 1'Forgotten Island' Earns a Flawless Rotten Tomatoes Score...imdb.com
- 2'Forgotten Island' Rotten Tomatoes Reviews Celebrate...forbes.com
- 3Forgotten Islandrottentomatoes.com
- 4Box Office Predictions: 2026imdb.com
- 5September 25, 2026: Forgotten Island · Rotten Tomatoes score Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 6Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 7Forgotten Island (2026) - Box Office and Financial Informationthe-numbers.com
- 8Forgotten Island Box Office Prediction – All My Life… I Wanted To Be A Blogstertoddmthatcher.com
- 9"Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office - Polymarket Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 10Forgotten Island - Production & Contact Info | IMDbPropro.imdb.com
- 11DreamWorks Animation Sets ‘Forgotten Island’ Voice Cast With H.E.R., Dave Franco, Jenny Slate and More - IMDbimdb.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 94
📈 September 25, 2026: 14.0pp spike
Price increased from 59.0% to 73.0%
What happened: The research indicates that no specific social media activity or traditional news announcement was the primary driver of a 14.0 percentage point spike in the "Forgotten Island · Rotten Tomatoes score" prediction market on September 25, 2026. While the film maintained a high Rotten Tomatoes score, debuting at 100% and settling at 96% by September 25, coinciding with its U.S. theatrical release, no particular social media post or traditional news announcement caused such a market price spike [1][2][3][4][5][6]. The available evidence supports a general "Rotten Tomatoes-related attention spike" around September 24-25 but does not establish a measured 14.0-percentage-point increase or a specific news/social-media catalyst for the observed market movement [7][8][9][10][6]. Therefore, social media was not identified as a primary driver for this specific price spike.
Outcome: Above 97
📉 September 24, 2026: 55.0pp drop
Price decreased from 56.0% to 1.0%
What happened: The primary driver for a 55.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market cannot be identified, as the available evidence contradicts the reported movement. On September 24, 2026, "Forgotten Island"'s Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer was reported at 98% after debuting at 100%, consistently fulfilling the "Above 97" condition [1][11][8][9][10]. Social media activity and traditional news coverage primarily highlighted the film's strong critical reception and cultural significance [4][12][3][13][14][8][10]. This overwhelmingly positive sentiment would typically cause a rise in market price for an "Above 97" outcome, not a significant drop, suggesting social media was either mostly noise or irrelevant to such a decline.
Outcome: Above 96
📈 September 23, 2026: 37.0pp spike
Price increased from 37.0% to 74.0%
What happened: While the specific 37.0 percentage point spike on September 23, 2026, cannot be explicitly validated from available reports [15], the primary driver for any significant upward movement in the "Above 96" outcome would have been the widespread publicity announcing "Forgotten Island's" 100% Rotten Tomatoes score [3][16][17][18][19]. Rotten Tomatoes and the film's official account shared this perfect score on Instagram, directly supporting the "Above 96" outcome and coinciding with broader news coverage on September 23 [3][16][17]. This official social media dissemination of a perfect critic score served as a primary driver, accelerating public awareness and market confidence.
Outcome: Above 95
📈 September 22, 2026: 19.0pp spike
Price increased from 44.0% to 63.0%
What happened: The 19.0 percentage point spike in the "Forgotten Island · Rotten Tomatoes score: Above 95" market on September 22, 2026, was primarily driven by the official announcement that the film achieved a 100% Tomatometer score on that date [3][20]. This news was widely reported by traditional media, framing it as DreamWorks Animation’s best-reviewed film ever, providing a strong news catalyst [21][22][23]. Concurrently, Rotten Tomatoes and the official "Forgotten Island" Instagram accounts shared the 100% score on September 22 [3]. This social media activity coincided with the price move, acting as a contributing accelerant for the news-driven market reaction.
Outcome: Above 92
📈 September 21, 2026: 17.0pp spike
Price increased from 66.0% to 83.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 17.0 percentage point price spike was the lifting of the review embargo for "Forgotten Island" on September 21, 2026, which led to widespread reports of the film achieving an unprecedented 100% Rotten Tomatoes score from initial reviews [23]. This breaking news, covering approximately 20-22 reviews, created a strong signal for the prediction market's "Above 92" outcome [23]. While official Rotten Tomatoes and film-related social media accounts subsequently amplified this information, the core announcement of the score itself was the leading cause [24]. Social media was a contributing accelerant, spreading the news rather than originating the primary market-moving information.
Sources (24)
- 1Forgotten Islandrottentomatoes.com
- 2Dreamworks’ Filipino Culture Film 'Forgotten Island' Opens to 96% on Rotten Tomatoesweareresonate.com
- 3'Forgotten Island' debuts on Rotten Tomatoes with 100% rating | GMA News Onlinegmanetwork.com
- 4'Forgotten Island' Earns a Flawless Rotten Tomatoes Score, and DreamWorks May Have a New Crown Jewelcomicbasics.com
- 5'Uy, Philippines!’: ‘Forgotten Island’ stars, filmmakers celebrate Filipino pride during Manila tourinteraksyon.philstar.com
- 6Forgotten Island - Box Office Mojoboxofficemojo.com
- 7Forgotten Island (2026) - Newsimdb.com
- 8'Forgotten Island' Earns a Flawless Rotten Tomatoes Score...imdb.com
- 9Critics largely praise DreamWorks 'Forgotten Island'imdb.com
- 10'Forgotten Island' Debuts With an Amazing Rotten...imdb.com
- 11Critics praise Forgotten Island, which is in play for Best Animated Featuregoldderby.com
- 12DreamWorks’ 'Forgotten Island' Debuts With 100% Scoresunstar.com.ph
- 13How 'Forgotten Island' is a 'love letter' to Filipino culture...abcnews.com
- 14DreamWorks' 'Forgotten Island' Releases September 25 | NBCUNIVERSAL MEDIAnbcuniversal.com
- 15Forgotten Island at 96% Rottentomatoes with 67 reviews as of...gamefaqs.gamespot.com
- 16Filipino-Inspired Forgotten Island Earns Perfect 100% on Rotten Tomatoes - Out of Town Blogoutoftownblog.com
- 17‘Forgotten Island’ Earns Perfect Rotten Tomatoes Score Ahead Of Release - News Areanews-area.com
- 18Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey Gets Officially Overtaken...imdb.com
- 19Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey Gets Officially Overtaken...imdb.com
- 20'Forgotten Island' gets 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoesgmanetwork.com
- 21DreamWorks’ New Movie Gets Studio’s Best Reviews Ever, Beating Shrek & HTTYDcomingsoon.net
- 22‘Spider-Man meets The Hangover’ is at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes — the best-reviewed film DreamWorks has ever made | CineCorner UKcinecorner.co.uk
- 23DreamWorks' 'Forgotten Island' Is Its Best Rated Film Everforbes.com
- 24DreamWorks’ New Original Fantasy Is Officially One of Its Best-Reviewed Moviescollider.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "Forgotten Island · Rotten Tomatoes score: Above 95" market, a 'YES' resolution occurs if the film's Tomatometer score is above 95%. A 'NO' resolution occurs if the Tomatometer score is 95% or lower. The market's resolution is based on the official Tomatometer score found on RottenTomatoes.com for "Forgotten Island," with a maximum payout date of September 28, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 45 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 50 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 55 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 60 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 65 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 70 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 75 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 80 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 85 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 87 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 90 | $0.99 | $0.02 | 98% |
| Above 91 | $0.98 | $0.03 | 95% |
| Above 92 | $0.95 | $0.06 | 94% |
| Above 93 | $0.83 | $0.23 | 84% |
| Above 94 | $0.80 | $0.38 | 73% |
| Above 95 | $0.45 | $0.60 | 41% |
| Above 96 | $0.20 | $0.85 | 14% |
| Above 97 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 98 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
The animated film "Forgotten Island" showed high critical favor, with its Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer reported at 100% on September 21–22 from 28 reviews and in some September 25, 2026 coverage, though the live page reportedly displayed 88% with 15 reviews [1][2][3][4][5][6]. This positive reception, which lauded the film's cultural representation, animation, humor, and emotional impact, led prediction market traders to be strongly bullish on the Rotten Tomatoes score before its September 25, 2026 resolution [7][8][9][10][11][12].
Sources (12)
- 1Forgotten Islandrottentomatoes.com
- 2'Forgotten Island' debuts on Rotten Tomatoes with 100% rating | GMA News Onlinegmanetwork.com
- 3DreamWorks' 'Forgotten Island' Is Its Best Rated Film Everforbes.com
- 4'Forgotten Island' Earns a Flawless Rotten Tomatoes Score...imdb.com
- 5Critics largely praise DreamWorks 'Forgotten Island'imdb.com
- 6'Forgotten Island' Debuts With an Amazing Rotten...imdb.com
- 7September 25, 2026: Forgotten Island · Rotten Tomatoes score Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 8Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 9Forgotten Island First Social Media Reviews from Cinemaconreddit.com
- 10'Forgotten Island' CinemaCon Screening Reactions Tease "'The Hangover' for Families" - The HoloFilestheholofiles.com
- 11FORGOTTEN ISLAND: Out-of-theater reaction to DreamWorks’ new animated film! 🩷💙🏝️ #forgottenislandyoutu.be
- 12KATSEYE's Sophia Laforteza Talks 'Forgotten Island' INXS Coverbillboard.com
5. Trust Index
Largest single print on KXRT-FOR-85 carried 34% of its $15,677 tape (window is 100% of 24h flow; print is 4d old)
Integrity risk· Large trades
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score78Good
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score83Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How does the initial critical reception for 'Forgotten Island' compare to the final Tomatometer scores of other acclaimed DreamWorks Animation films?
| Initial Tomatometer Score | 100% (as of September 25, 2026) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Initial Number of Critic Reviews | 15 [1][4] |
| Score vs. How to Train Your Dragon | 1 percentage point above 99% [1][4][5][6] |
DreamWorks' 'Forgotten Island' debuted with an exceptionally high Tomatometer score. As of September 25, 2026, the film launched with a 100% Tomatometer score, based on an initial 15 critic reviews [1]. Contemporary reports positioned 'Forgotten Island' as DreamWorks Animation’s highest-rated film at that time, exceeding the 99% final scores of critically acclaimed titles such as How to Train Your Dragon (2010) and Chicken Run (2000) by one percentage point [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Despite initial praise, some early reviews noted criticisms of the film. While Rotten Tomatoes displayed a 100% score, not all feedback was entirely positive [1][4][7]. The Guardian, for instance, published a sharply negative review, characterizing the film as "frantic and soulless" [1][4][7]. Similarly, Deadline acknowledged the film's animation and emotional resolution, yet pointed out its "frenetic pacing," indicating that some early reviewers identified flaws even amidst predominantly positive reception [8].
The initial 100% score represents a preliminary, volatile indicator. This early score was based on a limited count of just 15 reviews, which means it was not yet directly comparable in terms of stability to the well-established final scores of other acclaimed films [1][4][5][6]. For prediction markets, the 100% score serves as the current indicator if resolution is set for September 25, 2026. However, for those anticipating the eventual settled score after a comprehensive review count, this early 100% should be regarded as a leading but potentially volatile signal rather than a guaranteed final outcome [1][2][4].
Sources (8)
- 1Forgotten Islandrottentomatoes.com
- 2DreamWorks' 'Forgotten Island' Is Its Best Rated Film Everforbes.com
- 3Filipino-inspired 'Forgotten Island' scores 100% on Rotten...news.abs-cbn.com
- 4DreamWorks Animation Movies, Ranked by Tomatometereditorial.rottentomatoes.com
- 5DreamWorks' best, worst animated movies from Rotten...augustachronicle.com
- 6DreamWorks Movies Ranked: Top 25 By Tomatometerfandango.com
- 7Forgotten Island review – best friends forever trapped in...theguardian.com
- 8'Forgotten Island' Review: H.E.R. & Dave Franco Voice...deadline.com
7. What is the typical score decay for highly-rated animated films on Rotten Tomatoes as the review count grows past the initial 50 critiques?
| Forgotten Island Reviews | 15 critic reviews [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Forgotten Island Debut Score | 100% [1][2] |
| Market Prediction Above 90% | 98% (snapshot) [1][3][4][5] |
Highly-rated animated films typically show minimal score decay past 50 reviews. There is no established universal or statistically measured score decay for highly-rated animated films on Rotten Tomatoes after 50 reviews [6][7]. An exact average decline cannot be computed, as sources do not specify scores at the 50-review mark for comparable films [8]. Historical data suggests that highly-rated animated films generally experience a small decrease or remain stable, rather than a significant drop. For instance, films like Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (97% from 398 reviews), The Incredibles (97% from 248), Finding Nemo (99% from 266), and Soul (95% from 358) maintained final scores between 94% and 99% [8][9][10][11]. Rotten Tomatoes functions by aggregating binary positive reviews, meaning broader review aggregation can shift scores in either direction [6][7].
"Forgotten Island" has not yet met the 50-review threshold. The film debuted on September 25, 2026, with a 100% score based on its initial 15 critic reviews [1][2]. Current prediction market sources indicate a high probability of "Forgotten Island" ultimately scoring above 90%, with one snapshot showing a 98% probability for "Above 90%." However, confidence decreases for higher thresholds, such as "Above 97%," which is listed at an 8% probability [1][3][4][5].
Sources (11)
- 1Forgotten Islandrottentomatoes.com
- 2DreamWorks' 'Forgotten Island' Is Its Best Rated Film Everforbes.com
- 3Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 4Forgotten Island · Rotten Tomatoes score… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 5September 25, 2026: Forgotten Island · Rotten Tomatoes score Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 6The 6 Animated Movies With 100% On Rotten Tomatoesscreenrant.com
- 7Movies are scoring higher and higher on Rotten Tomatoesglobalnews.ca
- 8Soul | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 9Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 10The Incredibles | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 11Finding Nemo | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
8. What specific elements of 'Forgotten Island' are driving the positive consensus among film critics publishing reviews during its opening week?
| Rotten Tomatoes Score | 88% (from 15 critic reviews as of September 25, 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Metacritic Reception | Generally Favorable (10 reviews) [1][2][3] |
| Key Strengths | Energetic visuals, emotional depth, and distinct Filipino setting [4][5][3][6][2] |
Film critics largely praise 'Forgotten Island' for its vibrant visual execution and emotional depth. The movie garnered strong positive consensus during its opening week, primarily driven by its energetic visual style, its successful blend of fast-paced adventure with genuine emotional stakes, and its distinct Filipino setting [4][5][3][6][2]. Reviewers frequently highlighted the film's colorful, highly detailed animation, dynamic shifts in textures and styles, visual jokes, imaginative creature design, and anime/Spider-Verse-inspired flourishes [4][5][3][6]. The narrative's strength lies in combining a humorous, swift adventure with sincere emotional impact, particularly through the bond between Jo and Raissa, their fear of separation, and the emphasis on preserving shared memories, leading to an affecting emotional conclusion [4][5][3][6]. A significant source of the film's originality is its Filipino setting, which seamlessly integrates local folklore and mythology into the island's creatures, visual world, music, and the cultural underpinnings of the central friendship [4][5][3][6][2].
Additional elements also contribute to the film's appeal and overall positive reception. The voice cast, prominently H.E.R. as Jo and Liza Soberano as Raissa, along with the ensemble's comic timing and catchy musical numbers, significantly enhance the film's charm [5][3][6]. However, while the critical reception is predominantly positive, it is qualified rather than unanimous [3][6][7][8]. Recurring reservations include criticisms describing the film as overstuffed, hyperactive, or derivative, occasionally sacrificing clarity, narrative breathing room, or fully developed emotional arcs for relentless momentum [3][6][7][8].
Sources (8)
- 1Forgotten Islandrottentomatoes.com
- 2DreamWorks' 'Forgotten Island' Is Its Best Rated Film Everforbes.com
- 3Forgotten Island Reviewsmetacritic.com
- 4'Forgotten Island' Review: A Supernatural Filipino Adventurenytimes.com
- 5'Forgotten Island' Review: H.E.R. & Dave Franco Voice...deadline.com
- 6Forgotten Island review: A charming, kinetic Hangover film...avclub.com
- 7'Forgotten Island' Review: An Animated Filipino Fantasywsj.com
- 8Forgotten Island review – best friends forever trapped in...theguardian.com
9. According to Rotten Tomatoes' aggregation process, what is the expected timeline for the 'Forgotten Island' Tomatometer to stabilize before the market's resolution?
| Tomatometer Score Stability | Scores are fluid and can change; no fixed stabilization period (Rotten Tomatoes [1][2]) |
|---|---|
| Market Resolution Date/Time | Monday, September 28, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET [3][4] |
| Practical Pre-Resolution Window | Through the weekend, roughly three days after wide release [3][4] |
The Tomatometer is fluid and lacks a fixed stabilization period. Rotten Tomatoes explicitly states that its Tomatometer scores are dynamic, fluctuating with changes in review counts and classifications, meaning there is no guaranteed point of final stabilization [1][2]. The Tomatometer reflects the percentage of positive professional critic reviews, and its value can adjust continuously as new reviews are integrated and assessed by curators from approved sources [1][2]. Therefore, stabilization should be viewed as an ongoing expectation rather than a definitive cutoff.
'Forgotten Island' Tomatometer will settle post-wide release. For the 'Forgotten Island' market, the Tomatometer is anticipated to stabilize at a relatively consistent value following the film's wide release, though its finality is not guaranteed by the resolution morning [3][4]. The market's official resolution is scheduled for Monday, September 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET, specifically the Monday after the wide release date [3][4]. This establishes a practical pre-resolution period extending through the weekend, approximately three days post-wide release. The Tomatometer score recorded precisely at this September 28, 2026, 10:00 AM ET timestamp will be used to determine the market's outcome [3][4].
10. How do opening weekend box office projections for 'Forgotten Island' correlate with historical performance of highly-rated DreamWorks films?
| 'Forgotten Island' Tomatometer | 100% from 15 reviews [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| 'Forgotten Island' Opening Weekend Projection | $15M-$17M (North America 3-day) [1][2][3][4] |
| Highly-rated DreamWorks Opening Weekend Range | $12.4M ('Puss in Boots: The Last Wish') to $43.7M ('How to Train Your Dragon') [5][6][7][8][3][9] |
"Forgotten Island" projects a modest opening despite perfect critical reception. Despite achieving a perfect 100% Tomatometer score from 15 reviews as of September 25, 2026, "Forgotten Island" is projected to have a modest North American 3-day opening weekend of $15 million to $17 million, likely placing it around fourth place [1][2][3][4][5]. This projected debut positions the film near the lower end of the observed range for highly-rated DreamWorks animated films. For instance, "How to Train Your Dragon" (99% Rotten Tomatoes) opened to $43.7 million [8], and "The Wild Robot" (97% Rotten Tomatoes) opened to $35.8 million [6]. However, the projection for "Forgotten Island" is broadly comparable to the $12.4 million domestic opening of "Puss in Boots: The Last Wish" (95% Rotten Tomatoes) [1][5][6][7][8][3][9]. This highlights a disparity between strong critical acclaim and initial box office performance [1][5][6][7][8][3][9].
Critical acclaim alone does not predict DreamWorks opening weekend success. The research indicates that critical acclaim is not a strong standalone predictor of opening-weekend box office size for DreamWorks films [3][9][8][10]. Highly-rated films within this category have demonstrated a wide spectrum of opening results, ranging from approximately $12 million to $44 million [5][6][7][8]. This variability suggests that other factors, such as franchise awareness, release timing, marketing strategies, market competition, and audience composition, play material roles in determining a film's initial commercial success [3][9][8][10]. While there might be a weak-to-moderate positive relationship between strong reviews and long-term commercial durability, a reliable one-to-one correlation between a film's Tomatometer score and its opening weekend is not evident [5][6][7][8].
Sources (10)
- 1Forgotten Island North America Box Office: 100% Rated...koimoi.com
- 2Forgotten Islandrottentomatoes.com
- 3DreamWorks Animation Movies, Ranked by Tomatometereditorial.rottentomatoes.com
- 4The Best New Movie This Weekend Has A 100% Rotten...forbes.com
- 5"Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office - Polymarket oranları | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6The Wild Robot - Box Office Mojoboxofficemojo.com
- 7Puss in Boots: The Last Wish - Box Office Mojoboxofficemojo.com
- 8How to Train Your Dragon (2010) - Box Office and Financial Informationthe-numbers.com
- 9DreamWorks Movies Ranked: Top 25 By Tomatometerfandango.com
- 10The Boss Baby (2017) - Box Office and Financial Informationthe-numbers.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Rotten Tomatoes score for "Forgotten Island" currently stands at 88% from 15 critic reviews as of September 25, 2026 [1][2]. This follows contemporaneous reporting on September 22 which documented a 100% Tomatometer at 28 reviews, described as DreamWorks Animation’s best-reviewed film ever [3][4][5][6]. The Rotten Tomatoes prediction market is scheduled to settle at 10:00 AM ET on Monday, September 28, 2026, based on the displayed All Critics Tomatometer [7]. Observed market pricing indicated bullish sentiment for thresholds above 90% and 92%, with mixed-to-bullish positions for above 95%, and bearish sentiment above 97% [7][8][9][10]. Bullish catalysts for the score include its current 88% rating after 15 reviews and positive early critical coverage; bearish catalysts stem from the score already being below the 90% threshold and the potential for additional reviews to lower it further [2].
Box-office expectations for "Forgotten Island" have materially weakened prior to its U.S. wide release on September 25, 2026 [2]. An early August forecast projected a $20M-$30M North American opening, but late-September tracking revised this to approximately $14M-$19M or $15M-$17M for the domestic opening weekend of September 25-27 [2][11][12]. International grosses totaled $2.718M through September 23 [2]. Principal bullish catalysts include strong critical reception, potential audience word of mouth, fall-break demand, and limited family competition post-opening, alongside its broad family positioning and wide domestic release [12][11][13][2]. Conversely, bearish factors encompass modest presales, roughly 95% of schools remaining in session, its status as an original film lacking sequel-brand awareness, scant marketing, and competition from "Avengers: Endgame Encore" and other releases [12][11][13].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: October 05, 2026
- Closes: September 28, 2026
Sources (13)
- 1Forgotten Islandrottentomatoes.com
- 2Forgotten Island (2026) - Box Office and Financial Informationthe-numbers.com
- 3'Forgotten Island' debuts on Rotten Tomatoes with 100% rating | GMA News Onlinegmanetwork.com
- 4DreamWorks' 'Forgotten Island' Is Its Best Rated Film Everforbes.com
- 5DreamWorks’ New Movie Gets Studio’s Best Reviews Ever, Beating Shrek & HTTYDcomingsoon.net
- 6DreamWorks’ New Original Fantasy Is Officially One of Its Best-Reviewed Moviescollider.com
- 7September 25, 2026: Forgotten Island · Rotten Tomatoes score Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 8Forgotten Island · Rotten Tomatoes score… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 9Will "Forgotten Island" score at least 95… 70.5% Odds | Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 10Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 11Forgotten Island North America Box Office: 100% Rated Filipino Folklore Film Eyes Modest Debut As Avengers: Endgame Encore Looms Largekoimoi.com
- 12DreamWorks' Forgotten Island tests the kind of movie Pixar cancelednews.piratesandprincesses.net
- 13Forgotten Island North America Box Office: New DreamWorks Animation Could Beat Abominable’s Opening, Eyes A Strong Domestic Debutkoimoi.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRT-RES-98: NO (Sep 21, 2026)
- KXRT-RES-96: NO (Sep 21, 2026)
- KXRT-RES-94: YES (Sep 21, 2026)
- KXRT-RES-93: YES (Sep 21, 2026)
- KXRT-RES-95: NO (Sep 21, 2026)
