Short Answer

The Rotten Tomatoes score for "Onslaught" is highly likely to remain above 45%, as the film's current score of 59% provides a significant buffer despite documented declines and anticipated additional reviews, a scenario priced at 99.0% by the market.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The largest price movement was driven by the aggregation of film reviews after the initial embargo lifted. As the critical consensus for "Onslaught" solidified, its Rotten Tomatoes score declined from early highs of 73-83% to a final score of 59% by its release date. This downturn in critical reception triggered a 79-point market collapse on September 3, with the price falling from 97.0% to 18.0%.
This drop reversed a significant spike on August 31. The lifting of the review embargo revealed a strong initial score of 80% based on the first wave of reviews. The positive debut sent the market price up 35 points, from 62.0% to 97.0%, as traders anticipated a high final score. Earlier, smaller price swings in late August lack a specific corresponding driver in the available information.
  • Onslaught's 59% score suggests high probability of remaining above 55%. Expected review increase and volatility pose risk below 57%. * Current 59% and declining trend make 60%+ less likely.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above 60 27.0% 19.0% The 59% score's decline from initial highs makes 60% less likely, with more reviews expected.
Above 65 2.0% 4.0% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 70 1.0% 0.6% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 55 79.0% 75.0% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Above 75 1.0% 0.4% The current 59% score and documented decline make achieving above 75% unlikely.

Current Context

A24's "Onslaught" debuted to a 59% Rotten Tomatoes score. The action-thriller, directed by Adam Wingard and produced by A24, Lyrical Media, Ryder Picture Company, Breakaway Civilization, and 828 Productions, was released in theaters on Friday, September 4, 2026 [^]. As of its release date, the film holds a Tomatometer score of 59% [^]. Initial critical reception, following the lifting of the review embargo on August 31, 2026, was higher, ranging from 73% to 76% in late August and early September [^]. This score subsequently adjusted to 59% as more reviews were published [^].
Critics describe "Onslaught" as a violent, Carpenter-inspired thriller. Expert reviews characterize the film as an "unabashedly violent" John Carpenter-inspired action-thriller [^]. Many reviews specifically highlight Adria Arjona's performance [^], while others critique the film's narrative pacing and themes [^]. "Onslaught Entertainment," a defunct independent booking and promotions agency based in Boston, MA, founded by Lionel Brown, is an unrelated entity with no connection to the film "Onslaught" [^].

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 57

📈 September 04, 2026: 45.0pp spike

Price increased from 9.0% to 54.0%

What happened: The provided research indicates no evidence of a 45.0 percentage point spike in the "Onslaught · Rotten Tomatoes score" market for the "Above 57" outcome on September 04, 2026 [^]. The film initially debuted with critic scores ranging from 73% to 83% following the review embargo lift on August 31, 2026, before gradually settling to its current 59% as more reviews were added [^]. This trajectory of the score, a gradual decline from higher initial percentages, contradicts the reported upward spike for an "Above 57" outcome. Therefore, there is no evidence that social media, traditional news, or market structure factors were primary drivers or accelerants for such a non-existent price movement.

Outcome: Above 60

📉 September 03, 2026: 79.0pp drop

Price decreased from 97.0% to 18.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the price movement was the ongoing accumulation and processing of critical reviews for "Onslaught," which caused its Rotten Tomatoes score to decline. As more reviews were added, the film's Tomatometer score decreased from initial highs of 73-83% [^][^][^][^], aligning with prediction market forecasts of a potential decline [^]. The 79.0 percentage point drop on September 03, 2026, reflected the market adjusting to an increasing probability that the score would fall below 60%, a trend confirmed when the score reached 59% by September 4, 2026 [^]. Social media was irrelevant as no specific posts or viral narratives are identified as causing this price move.

Outcome: Above 70

📉 September 02, 2026: 11.0pp drop

Price decreased from 41.0% to 30.0%

What happened: The primary driver was the widespread dissemination of highly polarized "first reactions" to "Onslaught" on social media platforms, which critically labeled the film 'irresponsible' or 'nasty' [^][^][^]. These early, negative sentiments circulated around the film's initial critical release period in late August and early September 2026, directly challenging the market's expectation of a Rotten Tomatoes score remaining "Above 70" [^][^][^][^]. This social media activity likely led the 11.0 percentage point price drop on September 2, 2026, by signaling that the aggregate score would decline as more diverse reviews accumulated towards the September 4th wide release [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Social media was a primary driver.

📉 September 01, 2026: 42.0pp drop

Price decreased from 83.0% to 41.0%

What happened: The prediction market price for "Onslaught · Rotten Tomatoes score: Above 70" dropped by 42.0 percentage points on September 01, 2026. However, the film initially debuted with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 73% following its August 31, 2026, embargo lift, which is above the 70% threshold [^][^][^]. There is no evidence in the provided sources of social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors on September 01, 2026, that would explain this specific prediction market price movement [^][^][^]. While the film's Tomatometer score eventually declined to 59% by September 04, 2026, the primary driver for the market price drop on September 01, 2026, cannot be identified from the available information [^][^]. Social media activity, along with other potential drivers, appears irrelevant given the lack of specific information for the date in question.

📈 August 31, 2026: 55.0pp spike

Price increased from 31.0% to 86.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was the lifting of the review embargo for Adam Wingard's film Onslaught on August 31, 2026 [^]. Upon this event, the film debuted with an 80% Rotten Tomatoes score based on initial critic reviews [^]. This official announcement, confirming the "Above 70" outcome, likely caused the reported 55.0 percentage point spike in the market price. Social media activity appears to be irrelevant, as no relevant posts or viral narratives were identified to correlate with this price movement.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the final Rotten Tomatoes score for "Onslaught" is greater than 57%. Conversely, it resolves NO if the final Rotten Tomatoes score for "Onslaught" is 57% or less. The maximum payout date for this market is September 7, 2026. No other special settlement conditions are detailed on this page.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Above 45 $1.00 $0.02 99%
Above 50 $0.98 $0.04 97%
Above 55 $0.79 $0.22 79%
Above 57 $0.55 $0.46 55%
Above 60 $0.27 $0.74 27%
Above 62 $0.09 $0.95 7%
Above 66 $0.06 $1.00 5%
Above 65 $0.02 $0.99 2%
Above 67 $0.01 $1.00 1%
Above 68 $0.01 $1.00 1%
Above 69 $0.01 $1.00 1%
Above 70 $0.01 $1.00 1%
Above 71 $0.01 $1.00 1%
Above 75 $0.01 $1.00 1%
Above 80 $0.01 $1.00 1%
Above 85 $0.01 $1.00 1%
Above 90 $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

As of September 4, 2026, the film Onslaught currently holds a 59% Tomatometer score on Rotten Tomatoes based on 71 reviews, coinciding with its U.S. theatrical release on the same date [^][^][^][^]. Public discussion and prediction market activity for the Adam Wingard-directed film indicate active trading on its final Tomatometer score, with previous market interest in whether it would maintain a "fresh" rating [^][^]. Critical commentary surrounding Onslaught is sharply polarized, with some praising its 80s grindhouse style and Adria Arjona's performance, while others criticize it as "irresponsible," lacking momentum, or failing to coalesce its stylistic elements [^][^][^][^].

5. Trader Dashboard

A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.

Above 60PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)high confidence
  • Factor
move_log_odds
0
Above 45Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (24h)high confidence
  • Factor
move_log_odds
0
Above 50Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality46Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality46Mixedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
39
Above 55Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality71Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality71Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Above 57Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)high confidence
  • Factor
move_log_odds
0
Above 62Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)high confidence
  • Factor
move_log_odds
0
Above 65Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality65Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality65Mostly confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
71
Above 66Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality85Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality85Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
98
Above 67Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)high confidence
  • Factor
move_log_odds
0
Above 68Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality75Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality75Confirmedhigh confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Above 69Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality85Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality85Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Above 70Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)high confidence
  • Factor
move_log_odds
0
Above 71Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality87Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality87Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Above 75Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)high confidence
  • Factor
move_log_odds
0
Above 80Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality81Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality81Confirmedmedium confidence
  • Factor
  • Factor
flow_agreement
0.85
move_retained_pct
100
Above 85Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Metric
—
Above 90Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Datainsufficient confidence
  • Factor
Metric
—

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Sep 4, 2026

6. What are the primary factors driving the significant volatility in 'Onslaught's' Tomatometer score since the review embargo lifted on August 31, 2026?

Initial Peak Tomatometer Score80-83% [^][^]
Current Tomatometer Score59% [^][^][^][^]
Review Embargo Lift DateAugust 31, 2026 [^][^][^]
Onslaught's Tomatometer score initially soared following its August 31, 2026 embargo lift. The score experienced significant volatility, peaking as high as 80-83% based on the first approximately 12-20 reviews [^][^]. However, as more critical assessments were aggregated, the score steadily declined, reaching 59% based on 71 reviews as of September 4, 2026 [^][^][^][^].
A stark critical divide fuels the film's significant Tomatometer score fluctuations. This volatility is primarily driven by a stark divide in critical reception [^][^][^]. While some reviewers praised the film's "grindhouse" aesthetic, "gloriously crafted" action, and stylistic homage to 1980s horror, others criticized it as "underwhelming," "narratively undercooked," "loathsome," or as a film prioritizing style over substance [^][^][^].

7. How does 'Onslaught's' critical reception compare to director Adam Wingard's previous major films, such as 'Godzilla vs. Kong' and 'The Guest'?

Onslaught Tomatometer Score59% (as of September 4, 2026) [^][^]
The Guest Tomatometer Score92% [^]
Godzilla vs. Kong Tomatometer Score76% [^]
Adam Wingard's Onslaught has garnered a mixed critical response. As of September 4, 2026, the film holds a 59% Tomatometer score on Rotten Tomatoes, derived from 71 reviews [^][^].
Previous Wingard films generally received stronger critical acclaim than Onslaught. His earlier major works, The Guest and Godzilla vs. Kong, achieved higher recognition. The Guest is designated "Certified Fresh" with an impressive 92% Rotten Tomatoes score, while Godzilla vs. Kong secured a 76% score [^].

8. What specific film elements, from Adria Arjona's performance to the narrative pacing, are consistently highlighted in critical reviews published after the September 4, 2026 release?

Lead PerformanceAdria Arjona's performance is a strong anchor for the film [^][^][^]
Narrative PacingOften criticized for being rushed or failing to sustain intensity [^][^][^]
Arjona's Performance DescriptorsDescribed as "winsome," "magnetic," and "tough" [^][^][^]
Critical reviews of Onslaught published after its September 4, 2026 release consistently highlight Adria Arjona's lead performance. Reviewers widely praised her portrayal, describing it as "winsome," "magnetic," and "tough," frequently noting her ability to serve as a strong anchor for the film even when other elements fell short [^][^][^].
Conversely, the film's narrative pacing is often criticized for failing to sustain intensity. Common criticisms included a "rushed" or "undercooked" narrative, insufficient character development, and a lack of worldbuilding [^][^][^]. Despite these criticisms regarding pacing and narrative depth, several reviewers did appreciate the film's "gonzo" action-horror hybrid aesthetic and its nostalgic evocation of 1980s genre films [^][^][^].

9. What is the current review count for 'Onslaught,' and how is that number expected to change in the first two weeks following its theatrical debut?

Rotten Tomatoes Critic Reviews71 (as of September 4, 2026) [^]
Typical Review Increase PeriodFirst two weeks post-theatrical debut [^][^]
Expected Review TrendSignificant increase expected [^][^]
Onslaught currently has 71 critics' reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. As of September 4, 2026, the film 'Onslaught' has accumulated a total of 71 critics' reviews on Rotten Tomatoes [^].
Review counts are expected to surge post-theatrical debut. Following its theatrical debut, the number of reviews for 'Onslaught' is anticipated to increase significantly within the first two weeks [^][^]. This rise is typical for major theatrical releases, as more professional critics publish their evaluations subsequent to the film's wide release [^][^].

10. How does 'Onslaught's' Tomatometer score compare with the initial scores of other recent action-thrillers produced by A24?

Current Tomatometer Score59% (September 4, 2026) [^]
Initial Tomatometer Score83% (late August 2026) [^][^][^][^]
Number of Reviews71 reviews [^]
Onslaught's Tomatometer score significantly declined from its initial debut. The A24 action-thriller currently holds a Tomatometer score of 59% on Rotten Tomatoes, based on 71 reviews as of September 4, 2026 [^]. This final score represents a notable drop from its initial reception. 'Onslaught' debuted with an 83% score in late August 2026, which then adjusted to between 73% and 74% shortly before its theatrical release [^][^][^][^].
The film's final release score settled lower than initial predictions. Ultimately, the score for 'Onslaught' stabilized at 59% upon its official release day [^][^][^][^]. Prior to this final tally, prediction markets had indicated a high probability that the film would achieve a score above 60% [^][^].

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The A24 action-thriller film "Onslaught," directed by Adam Wingard, was released theatrically on September 4, 2026 [^] [^] [^] . Bullish and bearish sentiment in film prediction markets often pivots on critic review aggregates [^]. Early positive indicators, with initial reports of Rotten Tomatoes scores between 73% and 76%, initially drove favorable predictions before the rating settled [^][^][^].
Reported Rotten Tomatoes scores for "Onslaught" have shown fluctuation during its debut window [^] [^] . As of September 4, 2026, the film held a 76% "fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes according to one source [^]. Conversely, other data for September 4, 2026, cited a 59% Tomatometer score based on 71 reviews [^][^]. This decline below the 60% "Fresh" threshold influenced market predictions, which had initially reacted to higher figures [^][^][^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: September 14, 2026
  • Closes: September 07, 2026

12. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: The A24 action-thriller film "Onslaught," directed by Adam Wingard, was released theatrically on September 4, 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: Bullish and bearish sentiment in film prediction markets often pivots on critic review aggregates [^] .
  • Trigger: Early positive indicators, with initial reports of Rotten Tomatoes scores between 73% and 76%, initially drove favorable predictions before the rating settled [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: Reported Rotten Tomatoes scores for "Onslaught" have shown fluctuation during its debut window [^] [^] .

14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXRT-DOG-42: NO (Aug 31, 2026)
  • KXRT-DOG-37: YES (Aug 31, 2026)
  • KXRT-BUD-87: NO (Aug 31, 2026)
  • KXRT-BUD-82: YES (Aug 31, 2026)
  • KXRT-BUD-77: YES (Aug 31, 2026)