Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (~24h): Headline model probability for Runner's score surged +83.5pp, while market rose +81.0pp, widening the edge.
- Market-led movement for "Above 65" flipped the edge, rising +58.0pp where model rose +26.2pp.
- Market also led edge flips for "Above 70" (+41.0pp) and "Above 75" (+33.0pp) to their current levels.
- For "Above 60", the model led with a +35.4pp increase, compressing the edge against the market.
- Scores above 50% are probable, but director Scott Waugh consistently receives low critical ratings.
- Scores above 65% appear less probable, given Waugh's established history of low critical acclaim.
- A score above 75% is highly improbable, as director Waugh's films consistently rate much lower.
Current Context
Sources (8)
- 1Alan Ritchson's New Action-Packed Thriller Runner Gets First Reactionsscreenrant.com
- 2Alan Ritchson Will Officially Move On From ‘Reacher’ in 2 Weekscollider.com
- 3Alan Ritchson & Owen Wilson Race a Cartel in Runner’s Action-Packed Final Trailercomingsoon.net
- 4Runner (2026) - News - IMDbimdb.com
- 5Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
- 6Runner - Box Office Mojoboxofficemojo.com
- 7Forget ‘Wonder Woman,’ Gal Gadot’s New Action Thriller Is Officially Streaming Tomorrowcollider.com
- 8What the Critics Think of Justin Timberlake-Ben Affleck Thriller - IMDbimdb.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 September 01, 2026: 87.0pp spike
Price increased from 8.0% to 95.0%
Outcome: Above 45
Sources (6)
- 1Alan Ritchson's New Action-Packed Thriller Runner Gets First Reactionsscreenrant.com
- 2What are the early reactions to the Alan Ritchson and Owen Wilson action comedy Runner? – Movie Reviewsrecognizecity.com
- 3What are the early reactions to Runner?joblo.com
- 4Early Reactions to Alan Ritchson and Owen Wilson's Action-Packed Buddy Comedy 'Runner' (2026)souslestoitsdumonde.com
- 5Runner (2026) - Newsimdb.com
- 6Runner - Box Office Mojoboxofficemojo.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves based on the official Tomatometer score for the movie 'Runner (2026)' published on Rotten Tomatoes. A 'YES' contract resolves if the final score is above the specified threshold, while a 'NO' contract resolves if the score is at or below that threshold. The market is scheduled to resolve by September 14, 2026.
Market Discussion
As of September 2, 2026, the action comedy-thriller Runner, starring Alan Ritchson and Owen Wilson and scheduled for theatrical release on September 11, 2026, lacks an official Rotten Tomatoes score due to its unreleased status [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. Early reactions from screenings are reported as mixed to positive, noting praise for the lead pairing but mixed feedback on action sequences [4]. Public discussion often frames the film as a test case for Angel Studios' distribution model and a cultural skirmish, while it is actively traded on the Hollywood Stock Exchange [4][8][9].
Sources (9)
- 1Runner (2026) | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 2Runner (2026) | Official Website | In Theaters September... - Angelangel.com
- 3Runner (2026 American film) - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
- 4Alan Ritchson's New Action-Packed Thriller Runner Gets First Reactionsscreenrant.com
- 5Runner - Box Office Mojoboxofficemojo.com
- 6Domestic Release Schedule - Box Office Mojoboxofficemojo.com
- 7The Runner (2026) - IMDbimdb.com
- 8Runner - MovieStock | HSX.comhsx.com
- 9Runner Final Trailer: Alan Ritchson & Owen Wilson Race to Outrun Cartel | Sept 11 Release (2026)millwaukeeautolab.com
5. Trust Index
Largest single print on KXRT-RUN-50 carried 41% of its $23,219 tape (window is 100% of 24h flow; print is 5d old)
Integrity risk· Large trades
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. What is the expected timeline for the release of major critic reviews for 'Runner' between its Venice premiere and the September 14 market resolution?
| Film Wide Release Date | September 11, 2026 [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Rotten Tomatoes Prediction Market Resolution | September 14, 2026 [5][6] |
| Major Critic Reviews Timeline | Around film's wide theatrical release [7] |
Sources (7)
- 1Runner (2026) | Official Website | In Theaters September...angel.com
- 2Runner (2026 American film)en.wikipedia.org
- 3Runner (2026) | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 4Runner (2026) Movie Tickets & Showtimes Near You | Fandangofandango.com
- 5Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 6Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 7Find out more about the PRIMETIME screenings at the VENICE...facebook.com
7. What do the historical Rotten Tomatoes scores for director Scott Waugh's and star Alan Ritchson's previous films suggest about 'Runner's' likely critical reception?
Sources (6)
- 1Scott Waugh Movies List | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 2Scott Waugh - Rotten Tomatoesweb.archive.org
- 3Alan Ritchson Movies & TV Shows List | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 4Best Alan Ritchson Movies Ranked, Including 2026's Motor Citycomingsoon.net
- 5Runner (2026 American film) - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
- 6Runner (2026) | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
8. How does the 2026 Alan Ritchson film 'Runner' contrast with the similarly titled 2013 film 'Runner Runner' in terms of genre, cast, and critical precedent?
| 'Runner' (2026) Genres | Action, Comedy, Mystery & Thriller [1] |
|---|---|
| 'Runner Runner' (2013) Genres | Crime, Thriller, Drama [2] |
| 'Runner' (2026) Critical Precedent | None as of September 2, 2026 [3] |
9. Are the initial critic reviews for 'Runner' from the 82nd Venice International Film Festival publicly available for analysis before the September 11 theatrical release?
| Film Release Date | September 11, 2026 [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| 82nd Venice Film Festival Dates | August 27 to September 6, 2025 [5][6][7] |
| Festival Selection Status | Not selected for 82nd Venice International Film Festival [1][2][3][4] |
Sources (7)
- 1Runner (2026) | Official Website | In Theaters September... - Angelangel.com
- 2Runner (2026) | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 3Runner - VVS Filmsvvsfilms.com
- 4Runner (2026 American film) - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
- 582nd Venice International Film Festivalen.wikipedia.org
- 6Biennale Cinema 2025 | Homepage 2025labiennale.org
- 7https://static.labiennale.org/files/cinema/2025/Documenti/82miac-brochure-b.pdfstatic.labiennale.org
10. How do the early reactions for 'Runner' compare to the established critical success of Alan Ritchson's other major action project, the 'Reacher' series?
| Runner Early Reactions | Generally positive (as of Sept 2, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Runner Rotten Tomatoes Score | Not yet official (as of Sept 2, 2026) [2][3][4] |
| Reacher Average Rotten Tomatoes | 97% critical approval across four seasons [5] |
Sources (6)
- 1Alan Ritchson's New Action-Packed Thriller Runner Gets First Reactionsscreenrant.com
- 2Runner (2026) | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 3The Runner (2026) | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 4Runner (2026) - Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 5Reacher | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 6The ‘Reacher’ Season 4 Rotten Tomatoes Review Score Is Inforbes.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 21, 2026
- Closes: September 14, 2026
Sources (8)
- 1Runner (2026) | Official Website | In Theaters September...angel.com
- 2Runner (2026 American film) - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
- 3Runner - Box Office Mojoboxofficemojo.com
- 4Runner (2026) | Rotten Tomatoesrottentomatoes.com
- 5Runner Reviews - Metacriticmetacritic.com
- 6Alan Ritchson's New Action-Packed Thriller Runner Gets First Reactionsscreenrant.com
- 7Alan Ritchson & Owen Wilson's 'Runner': Early Reactions and What to Expect! (2026)luckytimbervale.com
- 8Runner - MovieStock | HSX.comhsx.com
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRT-DOG-42: NO (Aug 31, 2026)
- KXRT-DOG-37: YES (Aug 31, 2026)
- KXRT-BUD-87: NO (Aug 31, 2026)
- KXRT-BUD-82: YES (Aug 31, 2026)
- KXRT-BUD-77: YES (Aug 31, 2026)